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P.M.I. ® Intertanko Conference Oil Balance in America October 28, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "P.M.I. ® Intertanko Conference Oil Balance in America October 28, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 P.M.I. ® Intertanko Conference Oil Balance in America October 28, 2008

2 P.M.I. ® Crude Oil

3 P.M.I. ® 3 Crude Oil Price (US$b) Price volatility linked to financial performance. The 2008 expected WTI average is 105 US$/b. The WTD average of the worlds main producers require a minimum WTI price of 67 US$/b for 2009.

4 P.M.I. ® 4 Americas Crude Oil Production (Mbd) US and Canadian production represent half of the Americas production. Canadian synthetic crude and Brazilian offshore crude will sustain Americas production through 2019.

5 P.M.I. ® 5 Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela Crude Oil Production (Mbd) The growth slope of latin american production is given by brazilian crude.

6 P.M.I. ® 6 USA Crude Oil Production (Mbd) Since demand is expected to remain stagnant, Imports will increase proportionally to production decline in the USGC, USAs main refining area.

7 P.M.I. ® 7 Americas Crude Oil Imports (Mbd) US decline in production will increase its dependancy on foreign oils. Additional supply will most likely come from Canadian oil sands production delivered via pipeline into US Midcontinent and USGC.

8 P.M.I. ® 8 USA Crude Oil Imports from the Americas (Mbd) Primary imports come from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela.* Mexican production decline and Venezuelan politics will increase dependancy on Canadian oil. *Saudi Arabia is the second largest exporter to the USA.

9 P.M.I. ® 9 Canada Crude Oil Exports (Mbd) Additional pipeline construction is required in order to export canadian crude oil to the USA.

10 P.M.I. ® 10 Mexico Crude Oil Production (Mbd) Mexican crude oil production peaked in 2004; since then, field maturity has pushed production down.

11 P.M.I. ® 11 Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela Crude Oil Exports (Mbd) Venezuela may be the main latin american heavy crude exporter. The mexican government announced the construction of a new refinery in the next decade.

12 P.M.I. ® 12 Mexican Crude Oil Exports (Mbd) * Estimated Oil production in Cantarell in decline. Ku Maloop Zaap production is compensating some of the loss.

13 P.M.I. ® 13 Mexico Crude Oil Exports 2007 (Mbd) Export destiny: Total 1,686 Mbd 80% United States 10% Europe 8% Caribbean 2% India USA 1,352 Europe 163 Caribbean 135 India 35

14 P.M.I. ® 14 Crude Oil Flows to the USA 2007 Canada 1,890 Mbd Brazil 169 Mbd Venezuela 1166 Mbd Mexico 1352 Mbd Ecuador 200 Mbd Colombia 139 Mbd Alaska (ANS) 650 Mbd

15 P.M.I. ® Refined Products

16 P.M.I. ® 16 Mexico Gasoline Commercial Activities (Mbd) * Preliminary data 45% of mexican gasolines imports are from the USA. Mexican gasoline imports will continue to increase.

17 P.M.I. ® 17 Mexico Gasoline Imports 2007 (Mbd) USA 133Carribean 17 South America 12 Europe 107 Middle East 15 Asia 14 Import destiny: 298 Mbd 75% Gulf of Mexico 14% Pacific 11% Northern border

18 P.M.I. ® 18 Mexico Distillate Commercial Activities (Mbd) * Preliminary data Distillate imports in Mexico are increasing due to a higher demand.

19 P.M.I. ® 19 Mexico Distillate Imports 2007 (Mbd) USA 43 Mbd South America 1 Mbd Asia 13 Mbd Import source: 57 Mbd 75% United States 23% Asia 2% Southamerica

20 P.M.I. ® 20 USA Gasoline and Distillate Flows 2007 Finished MoGas and Components Flow to the USA from: Argentina 12 Mbd Brazil 5 Mbd Canada 165 Mbd Mexico 7 Mbd Venezuela 60 Mbd Distillates Flow to the USA from: Argentina 1 Mbd Canada 125 Mbd Mexico 1 Venezuela 12 Finished MoGas and Components Flow from the USA to: Canada 18 Mbd Mexico 133 Mbd Distillates Flow from the USA to: Argentina 6 Mbd Brazil 2 Mbd Canada 12 Mbd Mexico 43 Mbd

21 P.M.I. ® 21 Clean Products movements in Mexican Ports (2007) Pacific Imports Diesel18.5 Mbd42 vessels Gasoline76 Mbd157 vessels Pacific Exports Jet Fuel3 Mbd5 vessels Gulf Imports Diesel18 Mbd27 vessels Gasoline225Mbd417 vessels Jet Fuel3.6 Mbd20 vessels Gulf Exports Diesel2.6 Mbd4 vessels Total movement and product flow* Gulf449 Mbd703 vessels Pacific87 Mbd172 vessels * Includes clean products, GLP, Nafta, and residuals.

22 P.M.I. ® Conclusions 1.United States remains as the main crude oil importer of the world; most likely Canada will be the primary supplier through pipeline. 2.Texas and Louisiana will remain as the main export destination of mexican crude oil. 3.Gasoline will continue to flow from the United States and Europe to the Mexican Gulf Coast. 4.Diesel will flow mostly from Asia to the Mexican Pacific Coast. 5.The most common vessels for clean products in Mexican Ports are 50, 000 tons (Aframax). 80% of these vessels move products in the Gulf Coast and the remaining 20% in the Pacific Coast.

23 P.M.I. ® 23 Acknowledgement PMI acknowledges all data and information contained in this presentation provided by the following: Pemex Purvin & Gertz Platts Reuters Energy Information Administration (US Department of Energy)

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