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MENA Water Outlook 2050 Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo.

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Presentation on theme: "MENA Water Outlook 2050 Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo."— Presentation transcript:

1 MENA Water Outlook 2050 Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

2 Study Design Objectives – Detailed water supply and demand analysis – Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage Steps – Climate and other change projections – Hydrological impact model – Water resources supply/demand analysis – Cost and benefits adaptation options Limitations – Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

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4 WEAP Modeling Framework WEAP modeling setup – 22 countries – Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater – Irrigation, Domestic, Industry – – 3 climate change models – Results from hydrological model

5 RESULTS: DEMANDS

6 Results Demand curves MENA (AVG)

7 Results Demand curves MENA (DRY) Demand curves MENA (WET)

8 Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

9 Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (DRY) Demand and Supply Curves MENA (WET)

10 Iran Morocco Yemen Egypt

11 Water Demand-Shortage MCM/year; average climate change

12 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

13 Water Marginal Cost Curves Closing supply-demand gap: – Increasing the productivity – Expanding supply – Reducing demand Water marginal costs curves Assumptions: – Net present value (US$ 2010)

14 Strategies Increasing the productivity: – A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties) – B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry – C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture Expanding supply: – D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale) – E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale) – F: Desalination by means of using solar energy – G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis Reducing demand: – H: Reduce irrigated areas – I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

15 Strategies (increase productivity) A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties) – Typical examples: drip and sprinkler irrigation no-till farming improved drainage utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development optimizing fertilizer use innovative crop protection technologies extension services – Costs US$ 0.01 per m 3 = US$ 100 per ha per year – Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.: Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP)  US$ 100 per ha per year 2030 Water Resources Group  US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m 3

16 Strategies (increase productivity) B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry – Costs US$ 0.30 per m 3 – Note: costs can vary substantially. What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

17 Strategies (increase productivity) C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture – Assumptions Reuse only for agriculture No water treatment system Only operational and investment costs 50 mm per year – Costs Total: US$ 0.04 per m 3 50% annualized capital costs of investment 50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

18 Strategies (expanding supply) D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale) E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale) – Costs 0.03 $/m3 for small scale 0.05 $/ m3 for large scale – Note: costs can vary substantially sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya  0.04 $/m 3 Aslantis Dam, Turkey  $/m 3

19 Strategies (expanding supply) F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP) G: Desalination using reverse osmosis – Assumptions Details see presentation by Fichtner – Costs CSP 0.70 $/m 3 to 0.35 $/m 3 in 2030 and 2050 Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m 3 – Note: costs can vary substantially Especially energy Reverse Osmoses Multi Effect Distillation

20 SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses MSF = Multi Stage Flash MED = Multi Effect Distillation

21 Strategies (reducing demand) H: Reduce irrigated areas – Assumptions Reduce irrigated areas by 10% – Costs 0.10 $/m 3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15 $/m 3. – Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.: Crops Irrigation method Climate

22 Virtual Water Trade

23 RESULTS

24 Water Supply and Demand MENA region

25 MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves All values in 2010 US$ net present value

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27 Egypt Saudi Arabia

28 Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)

29 Conclusions Study – Advanced hydrological-water resources approach – In country variability – Monthly approach – Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture – Scoping study Overall results – Renewable water resources 20% reduction – Water shoratge 220 km 3 (range ) – Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35) – Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98) – Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP) Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place now!

30 Comparison Other Studies “Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World Bank, 2010): – Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030) – Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050) – MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050) “2030 Water Resources Group” – MENA: increase in demand: 99 km 3 (2030) Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007): – MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently) AQAU-CSP (DLR) – Water shortage: 50 km 3 (current) – Water shortage: 150 km 3 (2050) 2050: Shortage (km 3 ): 220 ( ) Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98) GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5

31 Way Forward Water shortage: – Unconventional decisions needed – Food, environment, tourism, industry? – Subsidies on water-food-energy Water-energy nexus Long and short term decisions Detailed case studies (country, topic)

32 THANK YOU

33 GDP projections Morocco Egypt


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