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Challenges Continue For a Recovery of Virginias Mortgage Market June 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Challenges Continue For a Recovery of Virginias Mortgage Market June 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Challenges Continue For a Recovery of Virginias Mortgage Market June 2009

2 Virginias mortgage debt problem remains substantial and will take time to unwind

3 3 Loan performance continues to deteriorate at a significant rate Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

4 4 Credit quality has weakened over a prolonged period of time When long-term mortgages were mainly funded with short-term bank deposits, lenders maintained tight credit standards to off-set their interest rate risk. Starting in the late1970s, the sale of loans on the secondary market grew substantially Securitization reduced interest rate risk and created latitude for lenders to progressively liberalize lending standards. Following the Tax Act of 1986, the rapid growth of home equity borrowing to support consumer spending added another element of credit risk.

5 5 Household mortgage debt has risen much faster than national GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Federal Reserve

6 6 A long-term rise in household debt was masked by rising home prices During the housing boom, steep rises in home prices allowed distressed borrowers to easily refinance their debts. This led to a falling rate of serious mortgage delinquency despite an ongoing decline in credit quality and growing levels of household debt. The reversal of home price appreciation eliminated refinancing as an exit door, and left distressed borrowers more prone to foreclosure.

7 7 A long-term decline in credit quality was masked by rising home prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Authority (FFHA) and Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

8 Virginias foreclosure problem first took hold in Northern Virginia

9 9 The onset of falling prices in NoVA was a trigger for rising foreclosures In 2007, foreclosures became a problem in NoVA following the onset of widespread price declines. The first wave of foreclosures was mainly adjustable rate subprime loansa large share of which had their first payment reset between mid 2007 and late 2008. Prince William, Manassas and other submarkets with high concentrations of subprime loans were impacted first and hardest.

10 10 A drop in home prices lags well behind declining home sales Declining home sales bring an end to price appreciation. However, most sellers will wait a long time before they are willing to significantly cut their asking price. Not until there is a large inventory of unsold homes will competition lead to a meaningful reduction in prices. Even then, it takes large numbers of distressed sales to push prices significantly lower. In the current market, the lag time between the initial downturn in sales and beginning of a meaningful drop in prices has been two full years.

11 11 The Prince William area illustrates the pattern seen in Virginia markets Source: MRIS

12 12 At the start of 2008, foreclosures were heavily concentrated in NoVA Source: ReatyTrac

13 Now, downstate markets are beginning to see significant increases in foreclosures

14 14 In 2009, foreclosures are impacting a widening number of local markets Source: RealtyTrac

15 15 The housing decline in downstate markets is trailing NoVA by a full year Source: Virginia Association of Realtors

16 16 Late 2008 marked the onset of price declines in many downstate markets Until recently, most downstate areas with high concentrations of subprime loans experienced fewer foreclosures than NoVA because their home prices remained relatively stable. Since late 2008, downstate housing markets have seen a steep up-tick in foreclosure activity as price declines have become prevalent. Rising foreclosure rates reinforce declining home prices, creating a reinforcing cycle Consequently, foreclosures will likely continue to rise until home prices stabilize

17 17 Virginias foreclosure problem is now becoming more broad-based While subprime loans remain a serious problem, a second wave of payment resets is now causing option payment ARMs and alt-A loan foreclosures to rise. In addition, the impact of the recession is beginning to increase default levels among borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgage loans. Consequently, foreclosures are no longer mainly NoVA or subprime problems. They are now a broad-based issue impacting a wide array of communities and borrowers.

18 Virginias Northern Tier is seeing a return to market fundamentals

19 19 Lower-end pricesinflated by relaxed underwritinghave returned to norms Note: Tiered price breakpoints are as of March 2009

20 20 Prices appear to be stabilizing, having fallen to pre-boom levels Source: MRIS

21 21 In NoVA, falling prices have spurred a rebound in existing home sales Source: MRIS

22 22 Rising home sales are reducing unsold housing inventory Source: MRIS

23 23 A big factor in NoVAs sales rebound is increased affordability In 2000, affordability was a problem mainly inside the Beltway At the peak of the boom, affordability pressures were severe even in the outer suburbs Today, affordability in the outer suburbs has returned to pre-boom levels Source: MRIS and Census Bureau Historic affordability threshold

24 What does the future hold for Virginias foreclosure problem?

25 25 Problem loans and unemployment will keep defaults high for some time The huge wave of defaults due to payment resets on subprime loans is now waning. However, a second wave of payment resets on option payment ARMs and alt-A loans will begin in late 2009 and extend through 2011. This second wave of potential defaults will coincide with the likely impact of rising unemployment on borrowers ability to repay.

26 26 The wave of subprime resets is ending, but other loan types are now at risk Source: Credit Suisse, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, September 2007

27 27 Foreclosures are stabilizing in areas hard-hit by subprime defaults in 2008, but are increasing in other markets Source: RealtyTrac

28 28 Now, foreclosures are rising in areas with concentrations of alt-A loans Source: RealtyTrac

29 29 Fixed-rate loan defaults are also rising due to unemployment and falling equity Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

30 30 Unemployment has increased substantially throughout Virginia Source: Virginia Employment Commission

31 31 Historically, rising unemployment leads to increased loan defaults Unemployment is strongly correlated with rising mortgage defaults. Usually, there is a lag between the initial rise in unemployment and an increase in default rates, because borrowers first exhaust public benefits and savings before they miss payments. There is often a longer lag between the peak in default rates and the peak in unemployment, because at the highest levels of unemployment people are out of work for an extended time.

32 32 Default rates may continue to rise even past the peak in unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

33 33 Prices have not yet fully corrected in some downstate market areas Despite recent declines, home prices remain high relative to incomes in some downstate areas During 2009, historically low interest rates will provide temporary price support to offset otherwise weak demand Nevertheless, downward price pressure should continue to be felt especially in the Hampton Roads and Charlottesville, market areas Source: VAR and Census Bureau Historic affordability threshold

34 34 The downstate share of foreclosure auctions is rising, but there continues to be a lesser build-up of foreclosed homes than in NoVA Source: RealtyTrac

35 35 Foreclosed homes remain a major drag on NoVAs market recovery In 2008, NoVAs inventory of foreclosed homes increased rapidly and dominated sales activity. The inventory has dropped since December but is still extremely high. Source: MRIS and RealtryTrac

36 36 Rising foreclosures are slowing the decline in lender-owned homes Source: RealtyTrac

37 37 The impact of foreclosed homes on local communities is expected to be concentrated in the Northern Tier Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Eligibility based on foreclosures reflects several risk factors as well as actual current foreclosed home inventories. ________________________________________________________________________

38 38 The following factors will contribute to how quickly markets rebound 1.An upturn in sales marks the bottom of the market As unsold inventory declines, prices will stabilize. –In NoVA, steep price cuts have contributed to a rebound in sales activity, declining inventory, and a bottoming-out of prices. –However, most downstate markets are still experiencing declining home sales and prices. 2.Price stability will ease foreclosures, but high default rates are likely to continue until the second wave of loan resets is past and unemployment levels begin to fall. –Increased sales will not significantly reduce the inventory of foreclosed homes until the default rate declines –Therefore, continued high inventories of foreclosed homes remain the primary obstacle to market recovery

39 39 What further risks lie ahead? 1.The length and severity of the recession remains an unknown. A layering of unemployment on top of current default factors will compound defaults. 2.A continued build-up of lender-owned homes will reinforce current price declines, destabilize neighborhoods, and inhibit market recovery. 3.There is the ongoing risk of further trauma in the credit markets that would significantly reduce the availability of affordable home financing. It is essential that an adequate supply of affordable mortgage funds remain available to enable increased sales.

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