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Tom Runiewicz US Industry Practice – Principal / Economist December 10, 2009 Next Years US Manufacturing Recovery A Consumer Perspective National Association.

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Presentation on theme: "Tom Runiewicz US Industry Practice – Principal / Economist December 10, 2009 Next Years US Manufacturing Recovery A Consumer Perspective National Association."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tom Runiewicz US Industry Practice – Principal / Economist December 10, 2009 Next Years US Manufacturing Recovery A Consumer Perspective National Association for Business Economics MRT Teleconference

2 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Global Insights December 2009 forecast… GDP growth estimated at -2.5% this year, should grow 2.2% in 2010 & 2.9% in 2011. Interest rates to remain flat through 2010. CPI: -0.3% this year, 1.7% in 2010, 2.0% in 2010. PPI: 6.6% this year, -6.0% in 2008, 1.9% in 2010. Trade weighted $ declines 3.9% in 2010, down 1.0% in 2011, down 2.9% in 2012. Consumer spending to fall 0.6% in 2009, up 1.8% in 2010, up 2.4% in 2011. Exports: -10.4% in 2009, 7.9% in 2010, 6.2% in 2011.

3 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. The stage is being set for next years recovery with High Tech leading the way.

4 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Production will not exceed the pervious 2007 peak until 2012 or 2013.

5 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Employment should bottom in early 2010 & it takes three years top get the jobs back.

6 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Home prices should bottom out in 2010, but should not return to their previous peak until 2016 or beyond.

7 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Consumer spending should begin to slowly recover in 2010 as employment increases.

8 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Over the next few years auto manufacturers should see a healthy recovery from a growth perspective, but…

9 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. …from a level perspective the numbers never truly come back.

10 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. By 2012 housing is still 30% below its peak in 2005.

11 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Housing-oriented industries will not recover until a stronger increase in employment in 2011.

12 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. Other consumer related industries should see some growth in 2010 and stronger increases in 2011.

13 Copyright © 2008 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. From an industrial production point of view, the recovery should remain steady through 2010, but its full strength will not be felt until 2011 or 2012.

14 Thank you For more Information Visit: globalinsight.com


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