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National Public Radio National Survey July 2004. Methodology The reported results on public attitudes come from a national survey conducted by Public.

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Presentation on theme: "National Public Radio National Survey July 2004. Methodology The reported results on public attitudes come from a national survey conducted by Public."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Public Radio National Survey July 2004

2 Methodology The reported results on public attitudes come from a national survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio (NPR) July , The firms, together with NPR, developed questions to inform a news segment for Morning Edition. This is our fifteenth survey in the NPR series. This is our seventh survey of the 2004 election cycle. The sample of potential respondents was generated by random digit dial methodology. The sample size for this survey was 800 registered likely voters with a margin of error of +3.46%. 2

3 Table of Contents 3 I.Key National Political Data II.Looking at Interest in the Election and the Presidential Ballot III.The National Issue Agenda IV.Profiling Persuadable Voters V.A Look Ahead to the Democratic Convention VI.Confidence in the American Electoral System VII.Terrorist Attacks/A Delay in the Election

4 Key National Political Data 4

5 5 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 A majority of American voters continue to say the country is off on the wrong track.

6 6 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, % 16% 18% 20% 23% 31% 28% 30% 31% 43% 42% 41% 45% 48% 49% 78% 81% 79% 77% 72% 66% 69% 66% 53% 55% 56% 53% 50% 49% Feb March March April June July Sept Oct May Sept 24- Oct Nov Dec Feb 26- March June July % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ApproveDisapprove President Bushs job approval has slipped below 50% for the first time on NPR tracking.

7 7 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 President Bushs job approval and ballot have almost become the same measure. Presidential Ballot

8 8 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 The intensity of President Bushs job approval rating by party is striking.

9 9 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004

10 Looking at Interest in the Election and the Presidential Ballot 10

11 11 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Election interest is at an unusual pitch. Today, 64% of voters describe their interest as being a 10, which is higher than during October of the past four election years!

12 12 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Intensity among Strong Republicans now matches the level of intensity among Strong Democrats.

13 13 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 The presidential ballot continues to be within the margin of error.

14 14 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004

15 15 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004

16 16 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004

17 17 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Kerry continues to maintain an edge above the margin of error in the swing states.

18 18 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 The 2000 election results by state continue to cut this data in a significant way. Key Data Bush Won Big Bush Won Little Gore Won Little Gore Won Big Right Direction/ Wrong Track 47%-46%40%-56%37%-56%35%-59% Bush job approval Approve/ Disapprove 60%-38%47%-51%45%-52%41%-57% Presidential Ballot Bush/Kerry 56%-38%44%-46%43%-50%39%-54%

19 The National Issue Agenda 19

20 20 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 May 2003 Sept 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Feb 2004 June 2004 July 2004 Net Diff. (June/July 2004) Economy and Jobs 46%51%44% 49%46%41%-5% Situation in Iraq -14%28%17%18%22%34%+12% Terrorism/National Security 26%28%24%28%24%27%30%+3% Moral Values 17% 15%19%21%20%-1% Affordable Health Care 21%22%23%24%18%20%19%-1% Social Security/Medicare 22%19% 22%23%21%18%-3% Education 21% 16%21%17%20%13%-7% Taxes 10%9% 10% 9%-1% Federal Deficit -8%5%8%9%5%7%+2% And, which ONE of the following issue areas would be MOST important to you in deciding how to vote for a candidate for President? And which of the following would be the NEXT issue most personally important to you? The national issue agenda continues to be focused on the issue of the economy and jobs, but theres been a shift in people saying their vote would be based on the situation in Iraq. (Ranked by July 2004)

21 21 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Top movers from June to July selecting the issue of the situation in Iraq as being one of the top two issues of most personal importance.

22 22 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Kerry Advantage Bush Advantage Presidential ballot by respondents top TWO most important issues 20% MORAL VALUES (Bush 80% - Kerry 13%) 30% TERRORISM/NAT. SEC (Bush 73% - Kerry 21%) 9% TAXES (Bush 67% - Kerry 23%) 19% AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE (Bush 33% - Kerry 55%) 41% ECONOMY & JOBS (Bush 41% - Kerry 52%) 7% FEDERAL DEFICIT (Bush 20% - Kerry 66%) 13% EDUCATION (Bush 35% - Kerry 53%) 18% SOCIAL SEC./MEDICARE (Bush 40% - Kerry 51%) 34% SITUATION IN IRAQ (Bush 29% - Kerry 62%) 67% 52% 44% 11% 18% 22% 33% 46%

23 Profiling Persuadable Voters 23

24 24 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Only a small percentage of voters say theres either a fair chance or a small chance they would consider switching their vote for President.

25 25 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Top Sub-groups of those considering a switch to Bush/Kerry Consider Switching to Kerry: Conservative Independents*29% Women at home*25% Latino*25% Weak/Lean Dems23% 60+ Retired Men20% Weak/Lean GOP20% Independents*20% Conservative Democrats*20% Independent Men*20% Independent Women20% Top Issue – Education*20% Women % Urban Women*19% Moderate/Liberal GOP19% Men 65+18% HH Income $80K-$100K18% Catholics18% Mountain Region17% Total13% Consider Switching to Bush: Latino*21% Urban Women*16% Women at home*15% Conservative Independents*15% Independent Men*15% Democrat Women15% Top Issue – Education*15% African Americans14% Independents*14% Rural Women14% Deep South Region13% Moderates13% Conservative Democrats*13% Wrong Track Voters13% Total 9% *Sub-group is on both lists

26 26 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Targeted Sub-groups Right Direction/ Wrong Track Bush Approve/ Disapprove Party Weak/Lean GOP58%-35%76%-23% Weak/Lean DEM20%-74%25%-72% Hard Independent40%-51%50%-45% Presidential Ballot Hard Undecided14%-68%41%-47% Would consider a switch to Kerry 36%-51%64%-30% Would consider a switch to Bush 18%-75%40%-52% The national right direction/wrong track data and Bush approval data among up for grab sub-groups is interesting.

27 Candidate Hesitations Voters who were not voting for Bush but said there was a chance they would consider switching to supporting him were asked what their hesitations were about Kerry... Among those who said there was a fair chance they would switch to Bush, voters generally dont know where Kerry stands on issues that are important to them such as healthcare, the economy and national security. Many voters raise his indecisiveness and inconsistencies in his past voting records as concerns. SWITCH TO BUSH: Fair Chance BALLOT: Other 2000 VOTE: Ref PARTY ID: Str GOP ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Mountain He just doesn't seem very stable or consistent. He bashes on George Bush sometimes, and he doesn't have a real good reason. He couldn't do much better. I'm not real familiar with John Kerry. SWITCH TO BUSH: Fair Chance BALLOT: Undec 2000 VOTE: Ref PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Mid Atlantic Foreign policy issues, whether he'll be strong fighting terrorism. Also, I would like to take a look at what his economic policy is. He hasn't been too clear. 27

28 Candidate Hesitations Voters who were not voting for Bush but said there was a chance they would consider switching to supporting him were asked what their hesitations were about Kerry... Among voters who still said there was a chance they would switch to supporting Bush, but it was a slight or small chance, most simply claim to not know enough about Kerry to make an informed comment regarding their hesitations in supporting him. Others raise concern about his morals related to his position on the abortion issue, and his lack of experience, mostly in the area of foreign affairs. Uncertainty about how Kerry will handle the situation given him is a common response, while other respondents are more angry and frustrated with President Bush than supportive of Kerry. SWITCH TO BUSH: Small Chance BALLOT: Prob Kerry 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Not Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Great Lakes I'm not completely read up on his beliefs and views yet. All of the things you listed before. I just am not aware of all his campaign issues yet. I would rather wait until I am read up on him before I make a final decision. That's all. SWITCH TO BUSH: Small Chance BALLOT: Prob Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Not Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Northeast Probably his inexperience would be his downfall. SWITCH TO BUSH: Slight Chance BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Deep South Well, I'm most concerned on how he is going to handle the situation he has been handed. The jobs, the war, and the economy. I want people to afford health care, to be able to have jobs, so they don't have to move. Also, I didn't like a lot of the votes he missed in Congress. I thought he should have been there on important issues. Is he really capable of doing anything that will turn our country around. It is just a major concern. 28

29 Candidate Hesitations Voters who were not supporting Kerry but said there was at least some chance they would consider switching to him were asked what their hesitations were about supporting Bush. While there were a handful of positive, reaffirming responses sprinkled throughout the verbatims, most people have similar hesitations with President Bush as they do with Kerry. Not surprisingly, they include his decision to take the country into Iraq, with the most responses, as well as the perceived stagnant state of the economy. Voters are also frustrated with a perceived lack of jobs, the state of Medicare and healthcare, as well as the education system. SWITCH TO KERRY: Small Chance BALLOT: Prob Bush 2000 VOTE: N/A PARTY ID: Indep ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Mountain I know that he has been given a lot of grief, but I think he did a good job under the circumstances. That's it. I think that all the grief that he has been given has been pretty harsh. Either they die over in Iraq, or we die over here without knowing what is happening. That's it. SWITCH TO KERRY: Small Chance BALLOT: Prob Bush 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Not Str GOP ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Mid Atlantic World affairs. Iraq. Our economy and job situation. Health care. Our allies, forming tight relationships. We've slipped from networks, strong friendships, and I don't feel we're supported. He's more concerned about Iraq and the whole war than the whole country. That's about it. SWITCH TO KERRY: Slight Chance BALLOT: Def Bush 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Not Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Mid Atlantic The continuation of the war. Educational issues. I think there are a lot of flaws in the No Child Left Behind. The economy. Jobs leaving the country and the lack of manufacturing. I am talking about heavy industry. 29

30 A Look Ahead to the Democratic Convention 30

31 31 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Voters are split about whether they are more or less interested in the Democratic National Convention in Boston. As you may be aware, next week is the Democratic National Convention which will be held in Boston. Now, compared to past Democratic Conventions, how interested are you in next week's Democratic Convention – more interested, less interested, or is your interest level about the same? More Interested 23% Less Interested 20% About the same 56% Not Sure/ Refused 1% 10% 14% 38% 32% 19% 9% RepublicansIndependentDemocrats More InterestedLess Interested Democratic Convention Interest by Party

32 32 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Top sub-groups less interested in the Democratic convention Top sub-groups more interested in the Democratic convention Top sub-groups with about the same level of interest as the Democratic convention

33 33 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Voters are beginning to feel they know about John Kerrys background, experience and positions on major national issues.

34 34 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Seven out of ten Americans say they are interested in learning more about John Kerry.

35 35 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Clearly up for grabs sub-groups describe themselves as less familiar with John Kerry, but interested in learning more.

36 Voters were asked how much they already know about Kerry, his background, and positions (A Lot/Some or Very Little/Nothing) and then asked how interested they are in hearing more from him during the Democratic Convention (Very/Somewhat or Not Very/Not at All). All voters who said they were very or somewhat interested in hearing from Kerry at the Convention were asked a follow-up open-end regarding what it was that they want to hear Kerry talk about at the Convention. The question was asked two ways, depending on how much the voter said they already knew about John Kerry: Know Not Very Little/Nothing (N=115): And, could you please tell what specific question or questions you would like John Kerry to answer for you at next weeks convention? What would you want to hear from him? What more, specifically, do you want to learn? Know A Lot/Some (N=450): What are the one or two things you would most like to hear John Kerry talk about at next weeks convention? 36

37 37 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Reflective of the current national issue environment, Iraq, the economy/jobs, and health care dominate the issues voters want to hear Kerry address at the Democratic convention.

38 Those very/somewhat interested and know a lot/some about Kerry What are the one or two things you would most like to hear John Kerry talk about the most at next weeks convention? Iraq BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Lean Dem ETHNICITY: Other GENDER/AGE: Female 65+ REGION: Outer South What he plans to do about the Iraq situation. What he plans to do, the other countries are looking down at us. They're not supporting us. BALLOT: Prob Bush 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Not Str GOP ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Great Lakes How he is going to handle the Iraq situation, and strategies, and what he will do differently. I'm interested in what his plan is. Deficit/Economy BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: Asian GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Great Lakes Probably the economy, how he is going to create jobs that aren't mediocre in wage. I hear a lot of Bush saying that there is a lot of jobs, but the other side, the wages suck. BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Indep ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Mid Atlantic How he would manage the economy. That's the primary one I'm looking about. 38

39 Those very/somewhat interested and know a lot/some about Kerry What are the one or two things you would most like to hear John Kerry talk about the most at next weeks convention? Healthcare/Medicare BALLOT: Def Bush 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Lean GOP ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Mid Atlantic I guess the Social Security and Medicare, those are the two I would pick right now. BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: Hispanic GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Pacific Also on health care, especially with the Medicaid cut. Pharmaceutical coverage for Medicare recipients, and an increase in Social Security for those who are dependent on it. The cost of living continues to go up. Jobs BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female 65+ REGION: Deep South About the economy, and the direction we've been, for a new and better direction. I'm am in hope that John Kerry will help us in this direction. And also help us in more and better jobs in the states, and let overseas jobs go. We definitely need more jobs here. So the job issue should be one of the top priorities to be done. BALLOT: Undec 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Indep ETHNICITY: Black GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Outer South Jobs for minorities. Economic base and economic stability in the black community. A lot of people are displaced, as far as job security is concerned. That's all. 39

40 Those very/somewhat interested and know a lot/some about Kerry What are the one or two things you would most like to hear John Kerry talk about the most at next weeks convention? Education BALLOT: Prob Bush 2000 VOTE: Bush PARTY ID: Indep ETHNICITY: Black GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Pacific I would like to hear about education. I would like to hear about the No Child Left Behind Act. Just that, and to hear whether he supports it or not. That's all. BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Lean Dem ETHNICITY: Other GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Great Lakes I would like to hear him say that he is going to work on getting rid of the No Child Left Behind registration. What I personally don't like about it is that it bases so much of education on testing scores, and I don't think that that is a fair way to evaluate students or teachers. The government's not funding it, and putting school districts into deficit. Social Security BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: N/A PARTY ID: Lean Dem ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Outer South I like to know more about his stance on a national health care plan and Social Security. BALLOT: Other 2000 VOTE: Buchanan PARTY ID: Not Str GOP ETHNICITY: Other GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Deep South He's going to straighten out Social Security. Make it so people can afford medicine. People on Social Security can't afford medicine. People on Social Security can't afford much, and don't have much money coming in. They have to pay a lot for their medicine. That's all. Terrorism BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Nader PARTY ID: Str Dem ETHNICITY: Black GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Mid Atlantic National security, his plans in Iraq and his plans to combat terrorism. BALLOT: Def Kerry 2000 VOTE: Gore PARTY ID: Lean Dem ETHNICITY: Black GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Great Lakes Economy and Iraq. Jobs, on the economic side. I want to know about the terrorist activities in Iraq. 40

41 Voters were also asked about their one or two doubts or concerns about John Kerry and asked to select from a range of options presented on the survey.

42 42 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Hesitations about John Kerry…

43 43 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Total Bush Voters Undecided Kerry Voters Does not share your values on issues like abortion and gay marriage 17%28%11%6% Would be too liberal 15%27%7%5% Just says what people want to hear 15%22%9%8% Would not be decisive enough to be president 12%18%16%6% Would not be tough enough on the war on terrorism 11%19%8%3% Supports higher taxes 8%14%5%4% Dont Know enough about him yet 18%15%45%15% No hesitation about voting for him 26%3%4%56% Hesitations about Kerry by Ballot Position

44 Confidence in the American Electoral System 44

45 45 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 There are definite signs of repair as a majority of voters say they have confidence in the system in which votes are cast and counted in this country.

46 46 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 And almost every voter says they are confident their own vote will be properly and accurately counted.

47 47 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Confidence in the Countrys system to count votes Confidence in my vote being properly counted Confident Not Confident D/SConfident Not Confident D/S Total 58%40%+18%94%6%+88% Ethnicity White 62%37%+25%96%4%+92% African American 31%66%-35%88%11%+77% Latino 45%55%-10%90%10%+80% Party GOP 84%15%+69%97%3%+94% DEM 39%60%-21%92%7%+85% IND 54%46%+8%93%6%+87% Region Florida* 55%45%+10%94%4%+90% There are sharp differences by party and ethnicity and among voters in Florida. *N=49

48 48 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Looking ahead, most voters do not believe there will be serious problems with the voting equipment or some other part of the voting process.

49 However, the 38 voters who said they believe it is very likely that there will be problems with the voting equipment or some other part of the process where they vote were asked to give their main concerns about that likelihood. Voters articulated three themes for what they describe as their concern: General uneasiness due to the Florida hanging chad debacle in 2000, being convinced that the fix is already in, and a distrust for computer voting functioning properly and that with computers there is no paper trail. Dont trust the machine ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Outer South Just the election casting. I'm not sure of the makeup of the computers and the electronics. Nothing. I'm not sure it'd going to go the way I want it to go. I'm unsure about the electronics, not sure about the procedures. That's it. ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female 65+ REGION: Mid Atlantic That they maintain their equipment, so that their equipment doesn't fail. I think that the last election, it was a local election, but they were having some problems with the voting equipment. That's it. The fix is already in ETHNICITY: Black GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Outer South I'm not as concerned about the equipment, more about the people that are running it. As for the people being trustworthy, I'm not sure if they are trustworthy. That's it. ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male REGION: Pacific It's all fixed. It's rigged. Since George Bush was pushed into office illegally. That is it. Its the Chad (Florida 2000) ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Female REGION: Northeast That my vote won't get counted. Just like what happened in Florida. That's all. ETHNICITY: White GENDER/AGE: Male 65+ REGION: Northeast They had the business last time, where you punched them. That didn't work out very well. You should either have a written ballot, or where you punch it. They should just get rid of that system, and just have the written ballot. 49

50 Terrorist Attacks/ A Delay in the Election 50

51 We asked voters how likely they thought it was that a major terrorist attack could delay the election. Actual fear for the elections being disrupted due to a terror attack is significantly lower in comparison to the more generic sentiment from a recent Fox News poll showing a majority believing there could be a terrorist attack leading up to the election. 51

52 52 National Public Radio National Survey, July 18-20, 2004 Attack likely to influence the Election Attack likely to delay the Election


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