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VISION 2005 Commercial Market Forecast 2506 Ponce de Leon Blvd Coral Gables, FL 33134 (305) 445-2808 DAVID DABBY, J.D., MAI DABBY.

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Presentation on theme: "VISION 2005 Commercial Market Forecast 2506 Ponce de Leon Blvd Coral Gables, FL 33134 (305) 445-2808 DAVID DABBY, J.D., MAI DABBY."— Presentation transcript:

1 VISION 2005 Commercial Market Forecast 2506 Ponce de Leon Blvd Coral Gables, FL 33134 (305) 445-2808 ddabby@dabbygroup.com DAVID DABBY, J.D., MAI DABBY GROUP ADVISORS DABBY GROUP VALUATIONS

2 Home PriceOne-year appreciation Las Vegas$269,90052% Anaheim (Orange Co.)$655,30038% Riverside/SanBernardino$294,50038% San Diego$559,70037% Los Angeles$438,40030% West Palm Beach$294,00026% Miami$271,90026% Washington, D.C.$352,40023% Portland, ME$231,20023% Baltimore$251,70023% Honolulu$451,00020% HAVES

3 Home PriceOne-year appreciation South Bend$93,8003.1% Syracuse$94,7002.0% Little Rock$109,4004.0% Columbia$120,700-1.8% New Orleans$137,5003.2% Greensboro/Winston-Salem$140,300-0.4% Detroit$141,8005.5% Dallas$141,0000.8% Columbus$150,4000.3% Atlanta$156,8003.6% Austin$158,900-1.3% HAVE NOTS

4 HavesHave-Nots Home Price (2004 Q2) $370,000$131,400 Price Appreciation (2003 Q2 to 2004 Q2) 31%2% One-year Wealth Gain (2003 Q2 to 2004 Q2) $87,500$1,700 Net Migration (2003) 24,6008,300 Job Growth (July 2003 to July 2004) 1.9%0.1% Income (per capita) (2002) $33,776$30,775 Housing Production (1990 to 2000) 1.6% Disparities Between the TWO

5 CoStar Industrial Report -2004

6 CoStar Office Market - 2004

7 CB Office Snapshot

8 Tri-County Combined Total Real Estate Sales Residential,Commercial & Land Combined SalesDollar Volume 1993129,343$20,458,323,800 1997134,482$27,164,302,800 1998146,641$29,590,134,800 1999160,715$34,037,415,600 2000168,727$36,103,001,500 2001175,436$38,895,360,900 2002189,301$47,168,786,500 2003201,030$57,749,728,800 2004est223,400$75,934,000,000 Survey prepared for the Keyes company.

9 Commercial Property Sales - Dollar Volume Trend OFFICESCommercial SitesWarehouses Rental Apartments Year Number of Sales Dollar Volume Number of Sales Dollar Volume Number of Sales Dollar Volume Number of Sales Dollar Volume 1999 726$1.83 Bil1,032$1.32 Bil862$0.90 Bil2,118$2.04 Bil 2000 688$1.69 Bil1,017$1.15 Bil834$0.85 Bil2,166$2.17 Bil 2001 697$1.40 Bil915$0.97 Bil878$1,03 Bil2,226$2.76 Bil 2002 691$1.98 Bil895$0.95 Bil1,042$1.07 Bil2,278$2.50 Bil 2003 850$2.14 Bil990$1.34 Bil1,176$1.50 Bil2,362$3.41 Bil 2004est 934$2.01 Bil1,046$1.79 Bil1,384$1.82 Bil2,3464.75 Bil Survey prepared for the Keyes company.

10 Commercial Real Estate – Pricing and Appreciation RankingReal Estate CategoryCounty Location Median Per SF (2002) Median Per SF (2003) Median Per SF (2004 est) % Annual Gain 2002-04 1 Retail CentersMiami-Dade $124.38 138.68179.3922% 2 Retail CentersBroward $104.42$116.46$148.1521% 3 Retail CentersPalm Beach $94.61 $106.32$129.8719% 4 Commercial SitesMiami-Dade $21.31 $21.17$37.1137% 5 Commercial SitesBroward $7.57 $8.57$12.3632% 6 Commercial SitesPalm Beach $10.36 $9.49$14.7521% 7 Rental AptsMiami-Dade $72.90$95.54$112.4327% 8 Rental AptsBroward $79.37$95.98 $104.5316% 9 Rental AptsPalm Beach $80.58$88.07$102.2014% 10 Office BuildingsMiami-Dade $113.04$102.53$112.20< -1% 11 Office BuildingsBroward 93.58 104.04$112.6310% 12 Office BuildingsPalm Beach $102.55$114.41$137.6817% 13Warehouses Miami-Dade $60.08 $55.98$61.841.5% 14Warehouses Broward $61.51 $63.34$67.354.8% 15Warehouses Palm Beach $59.98$61.65$65.464.5%

11 Courvoisier Courts Price: $96,000,000 # Units:272 Price per Unit: $352,941 Seller:Metropolitan Props Buyer:Elliott Sharaby Prior Sale:$61 Million in 12/01

12 Lakeview Club – Oakland Pk. Sale Price:$43,000,000 #Units442 Price Per Unit:$98,900 Seller:Sizeler REIT Buyer: Note: Despite marginal location and 55% one bedroom mix property sold for $98,900 per unit. Hispanic converters from Miami were targeted to buy this property.

13 Poinciana – Miami Urban In-fill

14 Sabal Palm Manor

15 Alhambra Plaza / Alhambra West Price $72.3 million or $229 per sf Rentable SF316,000 SF property (225,000 SF in the Class A building and 91,000 SF in the Class B) Seller – Edwards Day Buyer – Crescent Real Estate Equities Cap Rate7.8% on current income Occ. Rate92.1% leased (Alhambra Plaza 96.1% & Alhambra West 82.5%) Cash flow driven investment with moderate upside in operating expenses. Moderate tenant rollover for the next three years.

16 Trade Center South Ft. Lauderdale Price:$29,150,000 Rentable:215,049 SF Price per SF$136 Year Built:1986 Seller:General Electric Buyer:Tricony Cap Rate:6.7 %(on in place inc.)

17 Wachovia- 800 Brickell Avenue Price - $33,070,000 Rentable SF – 208,235 Year Built - 1981 Seller -Brickell Associates Buyer - Stiles Corporation & Guggenheim Price per SF -$159 Cap. Rate - 6% Note: Prior Sales – 1982 - $42,000,000 1987 - $35,400,000 1999 - $24,500,000

18 Crown Park II– Miami Lakes For Sale Condominiums Price: $100/ SF Shell Sold Out in 3 Months

19 Doral Multi-Bay Milam Dairy Rd. Corridor Price: $3,000,000 PlusCap. Rate:5.5%-8.5% Size: 53,000 SF (1990)Price per SF: $60(est) Comment: Marketed for Conversion but new buyer is not converting. Was under K for $3 mil but flipped to buyer for undisclosed amount.

20 Sheraton Biscayne Bay


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