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Proprietary & Confidential1 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Ivan Saha Head of.

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Presentation on theme: "Proprietary & Confidential1 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Ivan Saha Head of."— Presentation transcript:

1 Proprietary & Confidential1 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Ivan Saha Head of R&D Moser Baer Solar Ltd. Greater Noida (Delhi NCR), India Solar PV market in India – Driving Solar forward New Delhi, 27 th January 2011

2 Proprietary & Confidential2 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 TechnologyProsConsEfficiencyApplication Multi-crystalline Well developed, reliable, rudimentary technology available from machine suppliers High module level cost15-17% Home roof top system Mono-crystallineHigh efficiencyHigher module cost20-22% Amorphous Silicon Ease of production, scalable, road map to increase efficiency to 9-10%, low module cost Low efficiency, insufficient field reliability data 6-9% Solar farms and BIPV applications CdTeLow cost and scalable Raw material availability, Cd issue, 10-12% CIGSHigh efficiency demonstrated at lab scaleHigh variability11-14% Low ConcentratorLow active material cost Reliability and cost yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale 12-15% Roof top and solar farms High ConcentrationPotential for high efficiencyRequires tracking and high DNI20-25% Commercial and solar farms Solar Photovoltaic – Technology Landscape

3 Proprietary & Confidential3 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Source: Deutsche Bank Grid parity concept Grid parity will be achieved between 2014 and 2016

4 Proprietary & Confidential4 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 World PV installations in 2009 and EU breakup Source: EPIA $40 bn industry in 2009 and growing at % CAGR More than 3.8GW installed in Germany in 2009 as customers rushed to get system installed before the change in FIT in Jan 2010

5 Proprietary & Confidential5 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Bright future but clouds ahead! Source: Centrotherm Research

6 Proprietary & Confidential6 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Source: Greentech Media Research and Suntech, 2010 PV industry in 2011 will adapt to buying behavior levels of all stakeholders/end users, while working to help brand names emerge in the consumer consciousness 2011 demand 20.2 GW (iSuppli) 19 GW (IMS Research) 16 GW (PV Research) 2011 supply ~ 30 GW (estimated) oversupply situation

7 Proprietary & Confidential7 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Challenges in PV manufacturing Value engineering in PV value chainInnovation and product differentiationManufacturing yields and OEEControlling manufacturing variationsEnsuring product reliability Long and short term R&D can help mitigate these challenges and accelerate leadership positioning beyond 2012

8 Proprietary & Confidential8 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Sergey M. Karabanov et al, EU-PVSEC 2009 Cost drivers in PV manufacturing 30% 30% cost advantage down the value chain It makes sense to integrate the whole supply chain under one roof SiliconIngotWaferCellModule

9 Proprietary & Confidential9 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Challenges in C-Si manufacturing value chain Polysilicon Material purity Siemens vs. FBR Control of poly-Si dust Wafer Lifetime Impurities Structural defects Material defects Cell Efficiency Temp. coefficient Quantum Efficiency Mechanical strength Module Area Efficiency Temp. coefficient Low light response Manuf. Warranty Systems Energy yield Efficiency of BoS Life of Inverter Grid integration Storage solutions

10 Proprietary & Confidential10 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Example of R&D in C-Si value chain Block scan of a mc-Si block. Effective recombination lifetime in as-cut wafers from different positions within the block and efficiencies of cells made these wafers Increased trap density leads to low lifetime Corresponds to low efficiency Top of block with large impurities Tail of block with large impurities Andreas Bentzen et al, PVSEC-15, 2005 Understanding mc-Si wafer quality effects on cell efficiency Inclusion of metal impurities causes low R sh L. Carnel, et al, PI, 7 th Ed

11 Proprietary & Confidential11 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Innovation and product differentiation Innovation and product differentiation is the key to survival in PV Equipment innovations are happening in Europe and US, manufacturing innovations are happening in Asia. Chinese players are playing a key role SEMI China 2009 HIT - Sanyo Pluto - Suntech A300 – Sunpower 1% (abs.) efficiency = 5% manufacturing $

12 Proprietary & Confidential12 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 QD emitter QD Cell Eg=2eV QD junction QD Cell Eg=1.5 eV QD junction Bulk Si Eg=1.1eV Example of long term R&D – 3 rd Gen PV (QD cells) Proposed structure for an all-silicon QD cell Martin Green, EUPVSEC, 2009 Long term R&D - Demonstrating manufacturing level efficiencies with this or other disruptive technologies are critical for future leadership positioning Si- QD solar cells are projected to reach >25% lab level conversion efficiencies by

13 Proprietary & Confidential13 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Manufacturing yields and OEE PV manufacturing lines are less complicated than semiconductor manufacturing lines. However they pose significant challenges in terms of overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) and yield. Present trend lies in standardized manufacturing solutions or turnkey lines sold by big equipment manufacturers (eg. Schmid, Centrotherm, Roth and Rau) Yield and OEE continue to be dominant factors for established technologies like C-Si. For technologies like CIGS, a-Si, or CdTe, these parameters ultimately determine whether the technology is viable in volume manufacturing 1% improvement in yield and 1% improvement of OEE on a 100 MW Cr-Si manufacturing line is equivalent to generating $4Mn/yr of revenue Centrotherm C-Si Flexline Innovations focus Defining equipment layout for optimized line performanceDefining equipment layout for optimized line performance Value engineering in equipment /automation for delivering high yieldsValue engineering in equipment /automation for delivering high yields Yield management by process and machine interactionsYield management by process and machine interactions

14 Proprietary & Confidential14 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Controlling manufacturing variations in C-Si 100% automated wafer inspection Continuous monitoring of process CTQs Etch depth Sheet resistance SiNx thickness etc. etc. Monitor and control Gage R&R of Sun Simulator Focus on intelligent process control to minimize variances

15 Proprietary & Confidential15 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Ensuring product reliability Evaluation of long term outdoor performance Identify causes of failure using EL, IR Thermography, Testing of modules from regular production lots regularly to ensure quality to customer (continuous basis) Change of BoM/process/design Product Certification In-process reliability Outdoor testing Reliability failure analysis Some important tests performed as per IEC 61215/61646/61730 and UL 1703 Temperature Cycling Damp Heat UV preconditioning Humidity Freeze Hot spot Module temperature Insulation resistance Wet leakage current Visual Inspection Bypass diode thermal Performance at STC and NOCT Hail Test Mechanical Integrity Fire test All PV products are sold with 25 years of power output warranty and 10 years of manufacturing warranty. The warranty terms are being constantly upgraded Long term reliability of process, materials and workmanship are therefore of utmost importance.

16 Proprietary & Confidential16 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Challenges in PV reliability Machines/material/process effects: cannot be separately addressed. Usually they are interlinked and used beyond their design limits. 25-year warranty: How does one validate the warranty? Can this be extended further? Warranty for all field conditions: The warranty must hold good for a varied and harsh field condition. Can there be different warranty conditions specific to geography? Stress factors for testing reliability: The tests available are few and long duration. Hinders time to market Cumulative and interaction effects: In real life all stress factors have a cumulative effect. Some of the factors also interact with each other. Strong capability in R&D on PV reliability is critical to success

17 Proprietary & Confidential17 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Example: Module life prediction Rs incr. model Linear extrapolation of measured dark I–V series resistance change as a function of thermal cycles can give accurate life time estimates Comparison of the resistance changes in the Pb-free and SnPbAg modules during the cold dwell of accelerated thermal load. SEM image of Sn36Pb2Ag solder laminated PV cell subject to 1000 accelerated thermal cycles, showing the fatigue damage in solder PPRA 2010; 18:168–182

18 Proprietary & Confidential18 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Conclusions PV industry is seeing a sea change with prospects of departure from FIT regimes in the top European markets This is going to cause a major oversupply situation in mainly because of new capacity additions in Asia Established players and new entrants will face severe challenges in cost structures and brand differentiation Vertical integration will be required in c-Si manufacturing Wild card technologies like 3 rd generation PV can address potential $/W challenges New product introduction through focused long term R&D while mitigating short term market challenges with R&D driven value engineering in PV manufacturing are effective strategies to attain leadership position

19 Proprietary & Confidential19 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 Thank you for your attention!


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