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The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership

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Presentation on theme: "The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership"— Presentation transcript:

1 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership
25 March 2017 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Solar PV market in India – Driving Solar forward New Delhi, 27thJanuary 2011 The Cover Slide – this gives a description of Moser Baer and its various divisions/subsidiaries. If you do not want to use the ‘Proprietary & Confidential’, please delete the same from Master Template. You can access that by View>Master>slide Master. Also please delete this and all other messages in this PPT. Ivan Saha Head of R&D Moser Baer Solar Ltd. Greater Noida (Delhi NCR), India

2 Solar Photovoltaic – Technology Landscape
Pros Cons Efficiency Application Multi-crystalline Well developed, reliable, rudimentary technology available from machine suppliers High module level cost 15-17% Home roof top system Mono-crystalline High efficiency Higher module cost 20-22% Amorphous Silicon Ease of production, scalable, road map to increase efficiency to 9-10%, low module cost Low efficiency, insufficient field reliability data 6-9% Solar farms and BIPV applications CdTe Low cost and scalable Raw material availability, Cd issue, 10-12% CIGS High efficiency demonstrated at lab scale High variability 11-14% Low Concentrator Low active material cost Reliability and cost yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale 12-15% Roof top and solar farms High Concentration Potential for high efficiency Requires tracking and high DNI 20-25% Commercial and solar farms

3 Grid parity will be achieved between 2014 and 2016
Grid parity concept Source: Deutsche Bank Grid parity will be achieved between 2014 and 2016

4 $40 bn industry in 2009 and growing at 35 - 40 % CAGR
World PV installations in 2009 and EU breakup Source: EPIA More than 3.8GW installed in Germany in 2009 as customers rushed to get system installed before the change in FIT in Jan 2010 $40 bn industry in 2009 and growing at % CAGR

5 Bright future but clouds ahead!
Source: Centrotherm Research

6 2011-12 oversupply situation
2011 demand 20.2 GW (iSuppli) 19 GW (IMS Research) 16 GW (PV Research) 2011 supply ~ 30 GW (estimated) Source: Greentech Media Research and Suntech, 2010 PV industry in 2011 will adapt to buying behavior levels of all stakeholders/end users, while working to help brand names emerge in the consumer consciousness

7 Challenges in PV manufacturing Value engineering in PV value chain
Innovation and product differentiation Manufacturing yields and OEE Controlling manufacturing variations Ensuring product reliability Long and short term R&D can help mitigate these challenges and accelerate leadership positioning beyond 2012

8 Cost drivers in PV manufacturing
Silicon Ingot Wafer Cell Module 30% cost advantage down the value chain It makes sense to integrate the whole supply chain under one roof 30% Sergey M. Karabanov et al, EU-PVSEC 2009

9 Challenges in C-Si manufacturing value chain
Polysilicon Material purity Siemens vs. FBR Control of poly-Si dust Wafer Lifetime Impurities Structural defects Material defects Cell Efficiency Temp. coefficient Quantum Efficiency Mechanical strength Module Area Efficiency Low light response Manuf. Warranty Systems Energy yield Efficiency of BoS Life of Inverter Grid integration Storage solutions

10 Example of R&D in C-Si value chain
Understanding mc-Si wafer quality effects on cell efficiency Increased trap density leads to low lifetime Corresponds to low efficiency Inclusion of metal impurities causes low Rsh Top of block with large impurities Tail of block with large impurities Andreas Bentzen et al, PVSEC-15, 2005 L. Carnel, et al, PI, 7th Ed Block scan of a mc-Si block. Effective recombination lifetime in as-cut wafers from different positions within the block and efficiencies of cells made these wafers

11 Innovation and product differentiation
SEMI China 2009 Pluto - Suntech HIT - Sanyo A300 – Sunpower 1% (abs.) efficiency = 5% manufacturing $ Innovation and product differentiation is the key to survival in PV Equipment innovations are happening in Europe and US, manufacturing innovations are happening in Asia. Chinese players are playing a key role

12 Example of long term R&D – 3rd Gen PV (QD cells)
QD emitter QD Cell Eg=2eV QD junction QD Cell Eg=1.5 eV Bulk Si Eg=1.1eV Martin Green, EUPVSEC, 2009 Proposed structure for an all-silicon QD cell Si- QD solar cells are projected to reach >25% lab level conversion efficiencies by Martin Green, EUPVSEC, 2009 Long term R&D - Demonstrating manufacturing level efficiencies with this or other disruptive technologies are critical for future leadership positioning

13 Manufacturing yields and OEE
Centrotherm C-Si Flexline Innovations focus Defining equipment layout for optimized line performance Value engineering in equipment /automation for delivering high yields Yield management by process and machine interactions PV manufacturing lines are less complicated than semiconductor manufacturing lines. However they pose significant challenges in terms of overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) and yield. Present trend lies in standardized manufacturing solutions or turnkey lines sold by big equipment manufacturers (eg. Schmid, Centrotherm, Roth and Rau) Yield and OEE continue to be dominant factors for established technologies like C-Si. For technologies like CIGS, a-Si, or CdTe, these parameters ultimately determine whether the technology is viable in volume manufacturing 1% improvement in yield and 1% improvement of OEE on a 100 MW Cr-Si manufacturing line is equivalent to generating $4Mn/yr of revenue

14 Focus on intelligent process control to minimize variances
Controlling manufacturing variations in C-Si Variance of input wafer quality Variance of Process Variance of Sun Simulator Variance of cell efficiency 100% automated wafer inspection Continuous monitoring of process CTQs Etch depth Sheet resistance SiNx thickness etc. etc. Monitor and control Gage R&R of Sun Simulator Focus on intelligent process control to minimize variances

15 Ensuring product reliability
Some important tests performed as per IEC 61215/61646/61730 and UL 1703 Temperature Cycling Damp Heat UV preconditioning Humidity Freeze Hot spot Module temperature Insulation resistance Wet leakage current Visual Inspection Bypass diode thermal Performance at STC and NOCT Hail Test Mechanical Integrity Fire test Product Certification Change of BoM/process/design In-process reliability Testing of modules from regular production lots regularly to ensure quality to customer (continuous basis) Outdoor testing Evaluation of long term outdoor performance Reliability failure analysis Identify causes of failure using EL, IR Thermography, All PV products are sold with 25 years of power output warranty and 10 years of manufacturing warranty. The warranty terms are being constantly upgraded Long term reliability of process, materials and workmanship are therefore of utmost importance.

16 Challenges in PV reliability
Machines/material/process effects: cannot be separately addressed. Usually they are interlinked and used beyond their design limits. 25-year warranty: How does one validate the warranty? Can this be extended further? Warranty for all field conditions: The warranty must hold good for a varied and harsh field condition. Can there be different warranty conditions specific to geography? Stress factors for testing reliability: The tests available are few and long duration. Hinders time to market Cumulative and interaction effects: In real life all stress factors have a cumulative effect. Some of the factors also interact with each other. Strong capability in R&D on PV reliability is critical to success

17 Example: Module life prediction Rs incr. model
Comparison of the resistance changes in the Pb-free and SnPbAg modules during the cold dwell of accelerated thermal load. SEM image of Sn36Pb2Ag solder laminated PV cell subject to 1000 accelerated thermal cycles, showing the fatigue damage in solder PPRA 2010; 18:168–182 Linear extrapolation of measured dark I–V series resistance change as a function of thermal cycles can give accurate life time estimates

18 Conclusions PV industry is seeing a sea change with prospects of departure from FIT regimes in the top European markets This is going to cause a major oversupply situation in mainly because of new capacity additions in Asia Established players and new entrants will face severe challenges in cost structures and brand differentiation Vertical integration will be required in c-Si manufacturing Wild card technologies like 3rd generation PV can address potential $/W challenges New product introduction through focused long term R&D while mitigating short term market challenges with R&D driven value engineering in PV manufacturing are effective strategies to attain leadership position

19 Thank you for your attention!

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