Presentation on theme: "Chapter 6 Trade-Off Between Risk & Return"— Presentation transcript:
1Chapter 6 Trade-Off Between Risk & Return Risk, Return, and the CAPM
2Today’s Chapter 6 & 7 Topics Historical Trade-Off between Risk and ReturnHistorical Risk PremiumsCalculation of Historical Return and RiskPortfolio Return and RiskCalculation of Probabilistic Expected Return & RiskRisk DiversificationUnsystematic & Systematic Risk
3Risk and ReturnValuing risky assets - a task fundamental to financial managementThree-step procedure for valuing a risky asset1. Determine the asset’s expected cash flows2. Choose discount rate that reflects asset’s risk3. Calculate present value (PV cash inflows - PV outflows)The three-step procedure is calleddiscounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
4Quick Review: Financial Return Total return: the total gain or loss experienced on an investment over a given period of timeComponents of the total returnIncome stream from the investmentCapital gain or loss due to changes in asset pricesTotal return can be expressed either in dollar terms or in percentage terms.
5Quick Review: Dollar and Percentage Returns Total dollar return = income + capital gain or lossPercentage return: total dollar return divided by the initial investment
6Percentage Returns on Bills, Bonds, and Stocks, 1900 - 2003 Difference between average return of stocks and bills = 7.6%Difference between average return of stocks and bonds = 6.5%Risk premium: the difference in returns offered by a risky asset relative to the risk-free return available
7Variability of Stock Returns Normal distribution can be described by its mean and its variance.Variance (2) - the expected value of squared deviations from the meanUnits of variance (%-squared) - hard to interpret, so calculate standard deviation, a measure of volatility equal to square root of 2
8Volatility of Asset Returns Asset classes with greater volatility pay higher average returns.Average return on stocks is more than double the average return on bonds, but stocks are 2.5 times more volatile.
9Average Returns and St. Dev. for Asset Classes, 1900-2003 StocksBillsBondsStandard Deviation (%)Investors who want higher returns have to take more riskThe incremental reward from accepting more risk seems constant
10Probabilistic Expected Return Expected Rate of Return given a probability distribution of possible returns (ri): E(r)nE(R) = S Pi Rii=1
11Probabilistic Standard Deviation Relevant Risk Measure for single assetVariance = s2 = S pi( ri - E(r))2Standard Deviation = Square Root of Variance
14Portfolio Risk and Return E(rp) = S wiE(ri) = weighted average of the expected return of each asset in the portfolioIn our example, MAD E(r) = 33.5% and CON E(r) = 7.5%What is the expected return of a portfolio consisting of 70% MAD and 30% CON?
15Risk and Diversification E(rp) = S wiE(ri) = .7(33.5%) + .3(7.5%) = 25.7%19
16Portfolio RiskLooking at a 2-asset portfolio for simplicity, the riskiness of a portfolio is determined by the relationship between the returns of each asset over different scenarios or over time.This relationship is measured by the correlation coefficient( r ): -1<= r < =+1Lower r = less portfolio risk compared to the weighted average of the standard deviations.
18Average Return and St. Dev. for Individual Securities, 1994-2003 For various asset classes, a trade-off arises between risk and return. Does the trade-off appear to hold for all individual securities?
19Average Return and St. Dev. for Individual Securities, 1994-2003 Wal-MartAnheuser-BuschAmerican AirlinesArcher Daniels MidlandStandard Deviation (%)No obvious pattern here
20DiversificationMost individual stock prices show higher volatility than the price volatility of portfolio of all common stocks.How can the standard deviation for individual stocks be higher than the standard deviation of the portfolio?Diversification: investing in many different assets reduces the volatility of the portfolio.The ups and downs of individual stocks partially cancel each other out.
21The Impact of Additional Assets on the Risk of a Portfolio Number of StocksSystematic RiskPortfolio of 11 stocksAMDUnsystematic RiskAMD + American AirlinesAMD + American Airlines + Wal-MartPortfolio Standard Deviation
22Systematic and Unsystematic Risk Diversification reduces portfolio volatility, but only up to a point. Portfolio of all stocks still has a volatility of 21%.Systematic risk: the volatility of the portfolio that cannot be eliminated through diversification.Unsystematic risk: the proportion of risk of individual assets that can be eliminated through diversificationWhat really matters is systematic risk….how a group of assets move together.
23Systematic and Unsystematic Risk The tradeoff between standard deviation and average returns that holds for asset classes does not hold for individual stocks.Because investors can eliminate unsystematic risk through diversification, market rewards only systematic risk.Standard deviation contains both systematic and unsystematic risk.