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Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England.

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Presentation on theme: "Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England."— Presentation transcript:

1 Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia ttp:// Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389

2 Thomas Malthus 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society –Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence –Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically –The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.

3 Paul Ehrlich 1968: The Population Bomb “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines— Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”

4 World Population through History

5 Demographic Transition First, high birth rates and high death rates Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

6 Global Death Rates Demographic Transition: –First, death rates must drop –Then birth rates drop mons/thumb/d/d7/Death_rate_world_map.P NG/800px-Death_rate_world_map.PNG

7 Demographic Transition 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries 2050: Projected completion of transition

8 Demographic Transition Example: U.S. History –When agrarian society, people had many kids Source of security, labor

9 Demographic Transition Example: U.S. History –When became industrial, fewer kids/family Lowered infant mortality No need to rely on children’s labor More opportunities for women Happened without birth control Ford Motor assembly line



12 Global Fertility 1950’s:5 children/woman 1970’s:4 children/woman 1990’s:2.8 children/woman Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

13 Global Population Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China –Great Leap Forward Famine

14 World Population Projection Estimated to peak at 9 billion in 2070

15 World Population Growth

16 World Population Demographics Asia: 6.4 Billion –China:: 1.3 Billion –India: : 1.1 Billion Africa: 885 Million Americas: 875 Million Europe:: 727 Million Oceana: 32 Million

17 World Population

18 AIDS 40 million people infected with HIV –2/3 in sub Sahara Africa –Many will die of AIDS Will not greatly impact global population growth Will Impact some countries Losses by 2020: –Uganda 45% –Rwanda 35% –Malawi 30% Malawi AIDS orphans

19 Global HIV 2006

20 Food Production per Capita Food Production per capita is rising worldwide –But falling in Africa Food production is keeping up with population –Otherwise food prices would have risen –Food prices have dropped

21 Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

22 Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein

23 Progressivist View Things are good and getting better: – Worldwide standard of living – Education – Health – Trade People are an asset. Population causes shortages which raise prices, –stimulating entrepreneurs to satisfy the shortages. We end up better off as a result. Julian Simon

24 Progressivist View Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are –Decreased Infant Mortality –Increased Life Expectancy

25 Progressivist View Progress Population stimulates economy: progress. We are all better off Poor Elite Poor

26 Revisionist View Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of –Population growth –Ecological destruction –Social tyranny. The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies –humans believe they are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem) –and therefore can destroy it at will. Civilization is based on Agriculture

27 Daniel Quinn 1992: Ishmael –Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving –Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people. –Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion. –Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion –To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

28 Agricultural Revolution Hunters & Gatherers Agriculture Population Growth Technology Conquest for land Food production Culture Expanding population & environmental destruction

29 Elite Poor Agriculture, Anti-Ecological Religion Social Tyranny WealthResources Over- Population, Ecological Destruction Revisionist View Root Causes

30 Social Equity View Problems of –poverty –overpopulation –ecological destruction Are due to –inequity of wealth –unfairness of economic and social systems Frances Moore Lappe, Food First

31 Social Equity View Inequity causes overpopulation –Poor have no other source of wealth Overpopulation causes ecological destruction Must make economic and social systems fairer –Share control of global resources more fairly –Economic democracy

32 Social Equity View Inequity Poor Over- Population Ecological Destruction Elite Wealth = Root Cause

33 If the world were 100 people

34 If the world were 100 people (2008) 50 male –50 female 61 Asians –13 Africans –12 Europeans –9 Latin Americans –5 USA and Canada –1 South Pacific 75 nonwhite –25 white 67 non-Christian –33 Christian 60 mistrust their own governments (Source: Family Care Foundation; 100

35 If the world were 100 people (2008) 47 are urban dwellers –15 live in urban slums 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income 6 control 50% of the entire world’s wealth –Most are U.S. citizens 1 has a college education 1 owns a computer 1 near birth –1 near death

36 Both hunger and high fertility occur when: Poverty is extreme and widespread Society denies security and opportunity to people Infant mortality is high Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security Few opportunities for women outside of home Bangladesh mother

37 Children Labor force Chance for a job in city Security – major investment – rational choice 218 million children work

38 Women’s Education Powerful predictor of lower fertility Reflects opportunity in society Girls in school, India

39 Male Poverty Low self-esteem Dominate women and children Thus more children

40 Examples Sri Lanka: –l ower price rice led to population decline Cuba: –l ow prices for food and health care reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6 Kerala, India: –lower price rice, kerosene 1/3 birth rate of average in India Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India Kerala, India

41 Family Planning Birth Control is responsible for only 15- 20% total fertility decline –Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception –but it can speed the decline Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased –9% in 1960 –60% in late 1990s Demographic Transition requires improved –Health –Social Security –Education IUD: Intra Uterine Device

42 Global Fertility

43 Sterilization Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries –Quotas are set –Incentives are used Cash, roads, transportation, latrines For hungry, choices are limited 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized Indian woman

44 Puerto Rico: La Operacion U. S. seized in 1898 –Spanish American war Sugar companies set up vast plantations –Small farmers evicted By 1925 –2% of population owned 80% of land –70% of population landless’ Unemployment –termed “overpopulation” by U.S. By 1940’s –light manufacturing moved in attracted to cheap labor, low taxes

45 Puerto Rico: La Operacion Young women were key to labor force –Problem was pregnancy Result: massive sterilization program Women coerced into sterilization – without being told it was irreversible By 1968 –1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized Emigration and sterilization –resulted in population drop with no increase in standard of living.

46 Bangladesh Intensive Family Planning – in Matlab region Contraceptive use doubled Resulted in reduced birth rate Cost was very high: –$120/birth averted This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product Not replicable on a national scale

47 China 1950s, 60s Under Mao –children encouraged –Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation –“one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many” –“late, long, few” Have fewer children later greater spacing between Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9 gress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm

48 Fertility decline in China

49 China One Child Policy 1979 “one child” policy enacted –For urban areas Material benefits –if have 1 child Social & official pressure –If have more than 1 child 71% Chinese are rural –Multiple children are common Fertility rate has declined –But also declined in other Asian countries without coercion Human rights violation? web__470x316,0.jpg

50 Birth Control Methods in China

51 Skewed sex ratio Sex ratio at birth (2000) –117:100 male:female Maternal Hepatitis B may account for much of the skewing Boys preferred –Men care for parents in old age –Women join husband’s family Care for husband’s parents Selective abortion of girls –Use ultrasound to determine sex –If first child is a girl, want second to be a boy –Illegal but suspected Female infanticide suspected –before ultrasound

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