11Your assignment Create a single powerpoint slide containing Data on your assigned variable for France, Tanzania and the United States (be sure to include units).Explain the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on your variable – OR -Explain the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 your variable.The name of your group members.Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.
12Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html N, r, and GVariable PredictN, r, and G Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableLife expectancy Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableKids/woman Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableInfant Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableAdult Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableImmigration Emigration Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variableEcological footprint Change of variable in 2050 vs. todayWater supply amt./quality Change of variable in 2050 vs. todayPopulation density Change of variable in 2050 vs. todayLand use Change of variable in 2050 vs. todayWildness Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
13Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries. 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.Clot in Coronary Artery
14Malaria kills 2-3 million humans annually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquitoAffects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
15NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT Example:Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United StatesSource: US Census BureauBy:I.M. SmartM.E. TooTanzaniaFranceUSALifeExpectancy65 yrs75 yrs70 yrsCuringMalariaNo impactIncreaseDecreaseHeart DiseaseNOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECTANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES
16Next class period we will… Present your slides in class and use them for discussion.Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on some of these variables.Discuss the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 on the other variables.This is worth 5 points on the final exam.
19Age structures of three nations ShrinkingGrowingStableAre these growing, shrinking or stable populations?
20Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries. 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.Clot in Coronary Artery
21Malaria kills 2-3 million humans annually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquitoAffects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)
24=XTanzaniaFranceUSAN36,071,00060,424,000293,028,000rBirths/1000 population=41Deaths/1000 population=18R=23/1000 peopleBirths/1000 population=13Deaths/1000 population=9R=4/1000 peopleBirths/1000 population=14R=5/1000 peopleGgrowth rate will be 2.0%growth rate will be 0.4%growth rate will be 0.9%CuringMalariaThe population would increaseMalaria is common in underdeveloped countriesNo impactMalaria isn’t common in developed countriesHeart DiseaseNo ImpactHeart Disease effects mainly developed countriesWould increase the population of adultsBy: Tiffany Tyson, Chantelle Pelzer, and Emily Brickert
25N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census BureauBy:David FeivorTim MolinaroloChelsea EngerNathan TockTanzaniaFranceUSAN (Total Population)36,071,00060,424,000293,028,000R (Growth Rate)1.1%-0.3%0.7%G (Change In)396,781(181,272)2,051,196CuringMalariaIncrease N, r, and GNo ImpactHeart Disease
26Tanzania France USA G r N 864,000 2.4% 36 MIL 300,000 0.5% 60 MIL G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United StatesSource: US Census BureauBy:MikeLoefflerPeteJohnsonTanzaniaFranceUSAGrN864,0002.4%36 MIL300,0000.5%60 MIL2.93 MIL1.0%293 MILCuringMalariaIncreaseNo ImpactHeart Disease
272*If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase.By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker
28Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs. Curing Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States &Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart DiseaseTanzaniaFranceUSALifeExpectancy44 yrs78.8 yrs76.6 yrs.CuringMalariaIncreaseNo ImpactCuring Heart DiseaseBy: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra VangSource: US Census Bureau
29Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs Curing Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United StatesSource: US Census BureauBy:Carrie DietzKristin MinterJenn MoultonCassie HuettlRyan MeighanTanzaniaFranceUSALifeExpectancy44.1 yrs78.8 yrs76.6 yrsCuringMalariaIncreaseNo ImpactHeart Disease
30Fertility Rate Per Woman Source: US Census Bureau USAFranceTanzaniaFertility Rate per woman2000 – kids/woman2000 – kids/woman2000 – kids/womanCuring MalariaNO IMPACTINCREASECuring Heart DiseaseNo impact for curing heart disease because the women are above childbearing age.No impact for curing malaria in the USA or France because they are developed countries.Increase in Tanzania because less children will be dying and pregnant women will have fewer complications.By Sara Schlough, Kristine Tresemer, Abby Biesterveld
31Women/ Children 7,464/ 18,624 23,076/ 15,066 104,477/ 80,559 Curing Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States in the year 2000Source: US Census BureauBy:BrittanyMontgomeryAnd BrittanyShipmanTanzaniaFranceUSAWomen/Children7,464/18,62423,076/15,066104,477/80,559CuringMalariaIncreaseNoImpactHeart DiseaseNo Impact
32Tanzania France USA Infant Mortality 112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000 Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United StatesSource: US Census BureauBy:Katie McNeely,Elissa Bauer,Amy Calhoun,Nick Cerwin,Becca LongTanzaniaFranceUSAInfant Mortality112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 10005(male)/4(female) per 10009 (male)/7 (female)per 1000CuringMalariaDecrease MortalityDecreaseHeart DiseaseNo ImpactNo impact
33Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States *Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health OrganizationBy: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin MuellerTanzaniaFranceUSAInfant Mortality109 per 10005 per 10007 per 1000CuringMalariaDecreaseNo impactHeart Disease
34Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births 109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths 4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.com By Jackie Henry and Lindsie MillerTanzaniaFranceUSAInfant Mortality Rate per 1000 births109 deaths5 deaths7 deathsCuringMalariaDecreaseNo ImpactHeart Disease
35Adult Mortality Source: US Census Bureau France Tanzania USA Adult Mortality (m/f per 1000)133/60561/512140/83Curing MalariaNo ImpactCuring Heart DiseasesDecreaseBy: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts
36Tanzania France USA Adult Mortality 561-M 512-F 133-M 60-F 140-M 83-F Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USASource: US Census BureauBy: Casy DunphyMeghan JablonskiTanzaniaFranceUSAAdult Mortality561-M512-F133-M60-F140-M83-FCuringMalariaSubtle impactHeart DiseaseDecrease
37Adult Mortality France Tanzania USA N,R,G Adult Mortality N= 60,424,000 pplR= 0.5% growthG= RN = 302,120 pplN= 33,065,000 pplR= 2.4% growthG= RN= 704,000 pplN= 293,028,000 pplR= 1.0 % growthG= RN= 2,930,000 pplInfo not available on the WHO website, but the death rate is 18 per thousand in the populationMales: 140 per 1000Females: 83 per thousandWill not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria primarily effects kidsWill slightly lower adult mortality because malaria is prevalent in subsaharan AfricaWill not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria is not prevalent in the USWill lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countriesWill not significantly lower adult mortality because it is not a big killer of adults in TanzaniaN,R,GMales: 133 per 1000Females: 60 per 1000Adult MortalityCuring MalariaCuring Heart DiseaseSource: US Census Bureau, World Health OrganizationBy: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ
38Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan Ecological FootprintUnited States hectares per capitaFrance hectares per capitaTanzania hectares per capita1.0 hectares =2.471 acresAs the population increases over the next 45 years, the concentration of people per hectare will increase which results in a lower ecological footprint per capita.By:Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
39Burma France Canada Water Availability Population Changes Increase Source: Nationmaster.comBurmaFranceCanadaWater Availability21,898 cubic meters3,349 cubic meters94,353 cubic metersPopulation ChangesIncreaseDecreaseWater Availability for Tanzania, France, and United StatesBy: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller
40Tanzania France United States Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and the United StatesSource: nationmaster.comTanzaniaFranceUnited StatesWater Supply Amount*(in cubic meters)3.64 thousand cubic meters3.26 thousand cubic meters7.09 thousandcubic metersFreshwater pollution*(in tons per cubic km)N/A2.49 tons per cubic km1.14 tons per cubic kmPopulation from present time to 2050Increases*The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050 will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to increase.Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista Woolever, and Sarah Kleman
41Water Supply Amount and Quality Today Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United StatesTanzaniaFranceUSAWater Supply Amount and Quality TodayWater Availability: thousand cubic metersFreshwater Pollution: tons/cubic kmWater Availability: thousand cubic metersFreshwater Pollution:2.49 tons/cubic kmWater Availability: thousand cubic meters1.14 tons/cubic kmWater Supply Amount and Quality in 2050Water Availability: DecreaseFreshwater Pollution: Increase*POPULATION PREDICTED TO DOUBLE BY 2050Water Availability: SameIncrease*POPULATION PREDICTED SAME SIZE AS NOW*POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 1.5 TIMES LARGERSources: US Census BureauBy: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth
42In persons / sq. km. Tanzania France USA Today 40.7 110.7 32 2050 81.2 Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United StatesSource: US Census Bureau International Data BaseBy: BrianPeters,AlexaJaimeIn persons / sq. km.TanzaniaFranceUSAToday40.7110.732205081.2111.845.8
43Density (persons per sq. km.) Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S.Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density)FranceTanzaniaU.S.Population TodayDensity (persons per sq. km.)60,424,213110.736,071,79940.7293,028,57132.0Population 205061,017,122111.871,949,13581.2420,081,58745.8ImpactIncreaseChristina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn
44Source: U.S. Census Brureau Population Density for United States, France and TanzaniaSource: U.S. Census BrureauUnited StatesFranceTanzaniaPopulation2004293,027,57160,424,21336,070,7992050420,080,58761,017,12271,949,135DensityIncreaseSlightlyCrystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann
45Land UseLand Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands.It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the growth rate of France is not nearly as high.CountryType of LandPercent of land (%)Prediction for2050TanzaniaArable4.52IncreasePermanent1.08DecreaseOther94.4United States19.130.22No Impact80.65France33.532.0764.4By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah
46Wildness for Tanzania, France, and United States USAToday9.30%0.04%35.89%2050Decrease substantiallyDecrease SlightlyDecreaseTanzania will decrease because they are still a developing country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used because the United States has one of the largest masses of preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness because the world population has not reached its carrying capacity.By: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch,Alison Smetana, Ethan LorSource:
47# 11 Wildness Michelle Tentis Megan Brennan Rachael Stanze United StatesFranceTanzaniaWildness35.89%.04%9.3%Current Population290,342,55460,180,52935,922,454Growth Rate.92%.42%1.72%Effect of Pop. On Wildness in 2050Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted as a result of necessary expansion.
48Examine the data you collected For each variable, determine the impact of curing malaria and heart disease on that variable.
49In developed countries, what happens if we cure heart disease? PopulationConsumptionQuality of lifeNo significant increaseIncreaseIncreases life expectancy, but will also increaseheath costs and drain on resources
50In developing countries, what happens if we cure malaria? PopulationConsumptionQuality of lifeSignificant increaseIncreaseIncreases life expectancy, but will also dramatically increase use of already scarce resources
51Impact of Disease on Population Which would have a greater impact on world population, curing heart disease or curing malaria?MALARIA
52Parasitologist’s Dilemma What happens if we don’t cure malaria?What happens if we do cure malaria?What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressedDeath rate drops, population grows more rapidly
53What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria? Decrease fertility rate per womanLess developed countriesMore developed countriesSpread out the generationsStart having children at age 30 vs. 15Birth-controlAbstinence, contraception, sterilizationOtherEducation of women, affluence (wealth)
55Why do we want to keep population growth low? In many poor countries resources are already scarce.Tanzania < 2,000 calories per dayFrance, USA >3,200 calories per dayIf population increases, available food per person decreases.This leads to increased pressure on the environment and ecosystems around the world
57Is there a correlation between consumption and quality of life? FranceTanzaniaUSAConsumptionQuality of LifeFranceTanzaniaUSAConsumptionAverageLowHighQuality of LifeHighestQualityOf LifeConsumption (ecological footprint)
58Is the current level of consumption in the US sustainable? TanzaniaFranceUSAFootprint (ha/person)1.07.312.2Actual resources (ha/person)0.67.48.0Net Difference-0.4+0.1-4.2No, we must import a third of our resources.
61Impact of consumption on the environment Consumption by the average AmericanThe US uses liters of water/person/dayfor drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and watering yards (the minimum amount needed for those things MINUS the yard watering is 50 liters/person/day).In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5 liters of water/person/day.The average American consumed over 200 pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.The average coffee drinker in the United States drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.
62Impact of consumption on the environment Consumption by the average AmericanIn 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of garbage waste per day(product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass clippings, etc., before recycling).Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in 1960.About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year. This is over 300 liters/person/year!In 2001, the United States used million Btus of energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of carbon/person.In the same year, France used million Btus/person and emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.
63What is the impact of consumption on the environment? To make a single 2 gram computer chip requires1.6 liters of fossil fuel72 grams of chemicals32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water
64What is the impact of consumption on the environment What is the impact of consumption on the environment? (compare Tanzania with France/USA)TanzaniaFranceUSAPesticide use (kg/hectare)60030001600Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)7263112SO4 produced (tons/km2)1001000Water pollution (tons/km3)0.12.51.1Wilderness remaining9.3%0.04%36%Ecological footprint17.312.2
65What is the impact of population density on the environment What is the impact of population density on the environment? (compare France with the USA)TanzaniaFranceUSAPesticide use (kg/hectare)60030001600Fertilizer use (kg/hectare)7263112SO4 produced (tons/km2)1001000Water pollution (tons/km3)0.12.51.1Wilderness remaining9.3%0.04%36%Population Density (people/km2)4011031
66Parasitologist’s Dilemma Should we try to cure malaria?Given your answer, are there other actions we should take at the same time?
74Feeding the worldWorld’s farmers have doubled the food supply since 1973Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding riceIrrigationFertilizers and pesticidesGenetically modified cropsActually have more food/person than in 1973
75Agricultural Production per Person has remained relatively constant
76Top 5 countries by population (2003) 1 China 1,286,975,4682 India 1,049,700,1183 United States ,342,5544 Indonesia ,893,4535 Brazil ,032,604
77Population x Consumption = Environmental Impact (hect/person)Impact(hectares)China1,286,975,4681.82,316,555,842India1,049,700,1181.0United States290,342,55412.73,687,350,436Indonesia234,893,4531.5352,340,180Brazil182,032,6042.6473,284,770
78Sustainable Development: Land Used < Land Available Impact(hectares)AvailableDifferenceChina2,316,555,8421,544,370,562-772,185,281India1,049,700,118656,062,574-393,637,544United States3,687,350,4362,322,740,432-1,364,610,004Indonesia352,340,180610,722,978258,382,798Brazil473,284,7701,019,382,582546,097,812
79Ecological impact Impact = population X consumption Americans consume more per capita than anyone else on earth.It would take 3.28 billion Indians to consume what 290 million Americans do.
80Sustainable development A balance between population and consumption within the limits imposed by natureNeed to achieve sustainabilityReduction in pop growth in developing nationsReduction in consumption in developed nations