Presentation on theme: "Probability and Samples: The Distribution of Sample Means"— Presentation transcript:
1Probability and Samples: The Distribution of Sample Means Chapter 7
2Chapter Overview Samples and Sampling Error The Distribution of Sample MeansProbability and the Distribution of Sample MeansComputations
3Q? What is the purpose of obtaining a sample? A. To provide a description of a population
4What happens when the sample mean differs from population mean? Sampling Error: The discrepancy, or amount of error, between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter.2 separate samples from the same population will probably differ.different individualdifferent scoresdifferent sample meansHow can you tell if the sample is giving the best description of the population?In order to determine how well a sample will describe its population, there is a systematic, orderly set of predictable patterns to help predict the characteristics of a sample. This is called the distribution of sample meansThese questions can be answered once we establish a set of rules that related samples to populations.
5Predicting the characteristics of a sample Distribution of Sample Means: the collection of sample means for all the possible random samples of a particular size (n) that can be obtained from a populationN=1 P=1/100Do not confuse this with the distribution of single scores.
6Distribution of sample means are statistics, not single scores. Sampling distribution: a distribution of statistics obtained by selecting all the possible samples of a specific size from a population.
10Figure 7.2What is the probability of obtaining a score greater than 7?P 1/16
11Characteristics of sample means Sample means tend to pile up around the population meanThe distribution of sample means is approximately normal in shape.The distribution of sample means can be used to answer probability questions about sample means
12What do we use when we have a large n and do not want to calculate all of the possible samples ?
13Central Limit TheoremCLT: For any population with mean of and a standard deviation , the distribution of sample means for sample size n will approach a normal distribution with a mean of and a standard deviation of /n (square root of n) as n approaches infinity.Useful b/c it is impossible to obtain all of the samples means.This theorem can be applied to any population, no matter what the shape, or mean, or sd. The distribution of sample means approaches a normal distribution
14CLT: FactsDescribes the distribution of two sample of sample means for any population, no matter what shape, mean, or standard deviation.The distribution of sample means “approaches” a normal distribution by the time the size reaches n= 30.
15Central Limit Theorem Cont’d Distribution of sample means tends to be a normal distribution particularly if one of the following is true:The population from which the sample is drawn is normal.The number of scores (n) in each sample is relatively large (n>30)
16Expected value of XSample means should be close to the population mean aka the expected value of xExpected value of X: the mean of the distribution of sample means will be equal to (the population mean)Average number of sample means should equal the population mean.The sample mean is an unbiassed estimate of the population mean
17Standard Error of X Notation: x = standard distance between x and The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means.Measures the standard amount of difference one should expect between X and simply due to chanceThe single standard deviation of a sample mean from the population meanThe standard error of the sample mean is extremely valuable because it specifies how well our sample estimates a population mean.
18Magnitude of the Standard error is determined by The size of the sampleThe standard deviation of the population from which the sample is selectedLaw of large numbers: the > n, the more probable the sample mean will be close to the population mean.As sample size decreases, the standard error increases.
19Learning Check pg 151A population of scores is normal with =80 and =20Describe the distribution of sample means for samples of size n=16 selected from this population. (Describe shape, central tendency, and variability, for the distribution)How would the distribution of sample means be changed if the sample size were n=100 instead of n=16.1) The distribution of sample means will be normal with an expected mean of 20 and a standard error of 20 divided by the square root of 16 = 5
202) As sample size increases, the value of the standard error also increases? (True or False) 3)Under what circumstances will the distribution of sample means be a normal shaped distribution?3) Sample size if more than 30 or if the population is normal
21Learning Check 7.2 pg 152SAT scores with a normal distribution with a =500 and =100In a random sample of n=25 students, what is the probability that the sample mean would be greater than 540?The primary purpose of the distribution of sample means is to fine the probability associated with any specific sample. Probabilities = proportions
23Z-scores for Sample Means Z-scores describe the position of any specific sample w/in the distributionThe z-score for each distribution can be calculated using:z=X- xWe use the standard error instead of the standard deviation
24General ConceptsStandard error: samples will not provide perfectly accurate representations of the populationStandard error provides a method for defining and and measuring sampling error.Individual sample means tend to overestimate or underestimate the population mean.