Presentation on theme: "Housing Starts February 2014 March 18, 2014 Copyright (c) 2013 by APA – The Engineered Wood Association. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States."— Presentation transcript:
Housing Starts February 2014 March 18, 2014 Copyright (c) 2013 by APA – The Engineered Wood Association. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced, published, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from APA – The Engineered Wood Association.
Key Takeaways Residential: Similar to January, weather played a major role in negatively affecting residential construction activity in the U.S. Housing starts in the Midwest for the first two months of 2014 were down 43% from the first two months of 2013. It appears the severe winter weather did not abate through the first part of March, so the March starts data may not show much of an improvement. The most encouraging number in this month’s starts and permit data from the Census Bureau was the surge in multifamily permits, which were up 24% from January. The prevailing view of a number of forecasters is that as the spring thaw occurs, the economy and housing industry will regain the momentum lost over the last few months. Our concern is that the rise in mortgage rates to 4.25-4.5% is having a bigger impact on potential home buyers than these forecasters think. In addition affordability on a monthly payment basis has deteriorated due to higher home prices. Perhaps home builders are sensing this as reflected in their view of the outlook for the next six months, which is more cautious than what they were saying in the second half of 2013. Thus the APA forecast for single-family starts remains below the consensus for 2014 and 2015. Other sectors: Nonresidential construction spending was essentially flat on a month-to-month basis. Manufacturing output bounced back to its December level, but that was outside of the furniture industry where production fell for the third month in a row. Consumer spending was up, but higher heating bills are likely to cut into household budgets for the next couple months.
U.S. Housing Forecast Single-family & Multifamily Only * *Manufactured home production totaled 51,618 in 2011, 54,871 in 2012 and 60,300 in 2013. APA Forecast 2013 Actual20142015 Single Family 617,600700,000850,000 Multifamily 307,300375,000 440,000 Total924,9001,075,0001,290,000 Canada 188,370190,000190,000 Forecasts (000) 20142015 RISI-Feb 271,2101,490 Royal Bank of Canada-Mar 12 1,1831,458 Forest Economic Adv.-Feb 251,1051,330 NAHB-Feb 281,1041,532 Mesirow Financial-Mar 111,0801,460 APA-Feb 171,0751,290 Wells Fargo-Mar 121,0701,220 Mortgage Bankers-Feb 18 1,048 1,194 Average1,1091,372 Forecast revisions since last month: The 2014 average up 6,000. RBC down 15,000, Wells Fargo down 30,000; FEA down 25,000; NAHB down 51,000; Mesirow up 10,000; RISI unchanged; Mortgage Bankers Association up 5,000; APA down 25,000. The 2015 average. RBC unchanged. Wells Fargo down 30,000. Mesirow up 20,000, FEA unchanged, RISI unchanged, NAHB up 17,000, Mortgage Bankers Association up 49,000, APA down 50,000. +20% +24% The consensus for 2014 is now 1,109,000 starts, down 17,000 from last month. For 2015 the consensus is 1,372,000 starts, up 7,000 from the prior month.
U.S. Housing Starts February Annual Rate: 907,000; down 0.2% from January Source: census.gov/const/. Next report April 16. Weather continued to constrain the home building industry in February, most notably in the Midwest. For the first two months housing starts in the Midwest have run at an annual rate of just 68,000. In 2013 housing starts in the Midwest totaled 149,600.
Single-family Starts February Annual Rate: 583,000 Source: census.gov/const/. Next report April 16. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. - Millions Up 0.3% from January: Harsh weather continued to constrain single-family home construction in the Northeast and Midwest. Comparing the first two months of 2014 with the first two months of 2013, single-family starts in the Northeast and Midwest were down 25% and 29%, respectively. In the western states, where single- family starts were up 3% from a year ago for the first two months, there are anecdotal reports of developed lots being in short supply. 3 Month moving average.
Single-family Housing Permits February Annual Rate: 588,000 3 Month moving average. Single-family permits are a key indicator of future wood product demand. Single-family construction uses far more wood per unit than multifamily. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. - Millions February: Single-family permits fell 1.8% in February. The decline in the three month moving average is understandable given the severe weather. However, the rate of increase in the three month moving average was slowing prior to the start of winter, suggesting that the rise in mortgage rates was beginning to have an impact on new home demand. Source: census.gov/const/. Next report April 16.
Multifamily Starts February Annual Rate: 324,000 Source: census.gov/const/. Next report April 16. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. - Millions 4 Month Moving Average February: Multifamily starts fell 1.2% in February. The January starts estimate was revised up from an annual rate of 307,000 units to 328,000 units. There was a big drop in multifamily starts in the Northeast in February, but that was not a surprise given the January number. Multifamily starts in the Midwest are clearly being held down by the weather. For the first two months of the year, multifamily starts in the Midwest have run at an annual rate of 3,000. Last year multifamily starts in the Midwest were 48,000. The upward trend in the four month moving average is indicative of the strength in demand for new apartments.
Multifamily Permits February Annual Rate: 430,000 Source: census.gov/const/. Next report April16. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. - Millions 4 Month Moving Average February: Multifamily permits surged by 24% compared to January. The biggest gain was registered in the western states, up 84%. Multifamily permits in January were revised up from an annual rate of 335,000 to 346,000. The February permit level is the highest since June 2008.
New and Existing Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate New 1,000 Existing 1,000 New Sales & Existing Home Sales through January: New home sales ran at an annual rate of 468,000 in January, up 9.6% from the December rate of 427,000. The strength in new home sales was somewhat surprising based on builder reports of depressed traffic. Existing home sales fell to an annual rate of 4.62 million in January, down 5.1% from December. All of the decline was in single-family homes. Sales of condominiums were unchanged at 570,000 units. Harsh weather in the Midwest explains part of the decline, where sales fell 7.1%. Sales in the western states were down 7.3% from December and down 13.7% from January 2013. Home prices in the west are up 14.4% from a year ago, so affordability issues are coming into play. Source: National Association of Realtors (existing) and census.gov/const/c25 (new). Next release March 25, (new); March 20, (existing).
New Home Inventory & Months Supply Under Construction + Completed. Does not include permitted but not yet started. Thousands of Homes For Sale at month-end Source: census.gov/newhomesales, Tables 1 and 3. Next release March 25. January: The number of new homes either completed or under construction and for sale fell to 148,000 units in January. The inventory of homes for sale dropped to 4.7 months of supply. Both inventory measures are higher than a year ago, but it is still appropriate to consider the market to be in balance or slightly tight. Builders still mention lot supply and skilled labor availability as ongoing concerns. For the past 30 years, new home inventories have averaged about 300,000. A 4 months supply has been common. Months Supply
Existing Home Inventory & Months Supply Source: National Association of Realtors. www.realtor.org/research.www.realtor.org/research Million Homes January: The number of existing homes for sale edged up to 1.9 million. At the January sales rate, the months of supply rose to 4.9. The median time on the market for all homes sold in January was 67 days, down from 72 and 71 days for homes sold in December and November, respectively. Months Supply
Pending Home Sales Index Three Month Moving Average Sales Index: 2001 = 100, seasonally adjusted. Source: National Association of Realtors. The three month moving average is shown here. The index reflects contracts and not closed sales. Next release: March 27. Through January: The pending sales index was essentially unchanged in January from the December value of 94.9. The stabilization of the index in January did not stop the three month moving average from falling to its lowest level since March 2012. As pointed out in last month’s discussion, the downward trend in the index pointed to lower existing home sales and the January data were consistent with that. The continued drop in pending sales suggests another decline in existing home sales in February.
Weekly Average For Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage 4.37% for the week ending March 14, 2014 Source: http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/. Similar to last month’s report, the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to run in the 4.25- 4.5% band. Since the increase in the rate on a 30- year fixed rate mortgage in the second half of 2013, there has been jump in the use of adjustable rate mortgages, especially at the upper end of the market. Based on credit scores, banks originating ARMs are applying tighter lending standards today than at the height of the housing bubble in 2006.
U.S. Foreclosure Activity New Foreclosures Thousand Source: Realtytrac.com. Monthly default notices + foreclosure auction notices + bank repossessions. February 2014: The number of new foreclosures fell 10% in February to 112,498. The February new foreclosure level was the lowest since December 2006. Florida had the highest foreclosure rate, with Maryland second and Nevada third. The number of homes in some stage of foreclosure declined by 16,000. Relative to February 2013 the number of homes in the foreclosure process was down by 279,000, a decline of 18.9%. Foreclosure Total New Foreclosures Foreclosures Total Million
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20 city composite-Existing homes- Seasonally Adjusted Percent change from one year ago based on the past three months. Source: S&P Case-Shiller. www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com Next report March 25.www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com Through December: Up 13.4% from one year ago in the twenty largest cities. Compared to the peak reached in July of 2006, the Case-Shiller Price Index is still down 20%. Las Vegas and San Francisco registered the largest increases on a year ago basis with prices up 25.5% and 22.6%, respectively. The smallest increases were in Cleveland and New York City, where prices in both MSAs rose 4.5%.
Residential Remodeling Owner-Occupied Improvements* - Annual through 2011. Monthly in 2012, 2013 & 2014. Billions of dollars http:// www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.htmlhttp:// www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html Private construction * Census discontinued a broader survey of remodeling in 2008. It included rental, vacant and seasonal properties. Their surveys now miss 55% to 60% of all remodeling expenditures. January: $137.7 billion annual rate, down slightly from December. Weather did not seem to affect this sector.
U.S. Nonresidential Construction, Value Put-In-Place, January Annual Rate: $579 Billion Source: census.gov/const/. Value of construction put-in-place each month. Next release, April 1. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - $ Billion January: Nonresidential construction edged lower by 0.3% in January from December. Compared to January 2013, nonresidential construction activity was up 6.5%. There was a surge in spending on communications structures that left this sector up 40% from January 2013. Public sector spending on streets and highways gained momentum in January and was up 15% from a year ago.
Stores, Offices, Religious, Healthcare & Schools Construction Put-In-Place January: The 5 most important structural panel using and overall wood-using segments (see footnote): For the 5 segments combined, spending was down 1.5% from December. Compared to January 2013, combined spending was up 2.9%. On a year ago basis, construction of offices and commercial buildings were up 11% and 12.4%, respectively. In contrast, spending on healthcare, education and religious buildings was down 4.5%, 2% and 12.1%, respectively. Source: Put-In-Place Census.gov/Const/. Floor area-Reed Construction Data. These will be the largest structural panel using segments in a typical year, after nonresidential construction returns from the effects of the Great Recession. Data from “Wood & Other Materials Used to Construct Nonresidential Buildings- 2011”. These 5 segments currently make up about 37% of nonresidential construction put-in-place. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - $ Billion
Education – School Construction Construction Put-In-Place Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - $ Billion Source: Put-In-Place-Census.gov/Const/. January: Construction spending on education buildings dropped to an annual rate of $77.8 billion in January 2014, down 2% from January 2013. Public sector spending on education buildings was down 3% on a year ago basis in January. In contrast, private sector construction on education buildings was up 1% on a year ago basis.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Source: Institute For Supply Management. Next report: April 1. February: Led by an improvement in new orders, the ISM index rose to a value of 53.2 in February. A measure of above 50 points to growth in manufacturing. Severe weather throughout the eastern half of the country contributed to a lower reading on production in February, which held down the value of the overall index. Disruptions in weather are creating problems in securing the inputs needed to produce finished goods. The harsh weather has been affecting port operations which impacted the chemicals industry. A very positive note in the detail of the data is that the wood products industry showed the largest gains in new orders and backlogs.
Manufacturing Industrial Production Index Less Mining & Utilities Monthly Year-Over-Year % Change Source: Federal Reserve G.17, Tables 1 and 7. Next release: April 16. February: Manufacturing regained all of the decline registered in January due to adverse weather, and rose 0.8% in February. Relative to February 2013, manufacturing output was up 1.6%. The auto industry led the rebound with output up 4.8% compared to January. Wood products output fell 1.2% in February, suggesting that harsh weather was still having a negative impact on the industry. Capacity utilization in manufacturing jumped up to 77.1% in February.
Furniture Production Industrial Production Index Monthly Year-Over-Year % Change Source: Federal Reserve. February: Furniture production fell 1.7% in February, marking the third straight monthly decline. Compared to February 2013, furniture production was up 3%. The decline in furniture production over the last three months has been in the office furniture segment, where output has fallen 6%. Household furniture production, which includes cabinets, has risen 1% in the same time period. Capacity utilization in the furniture industry has fallen from 77.2% in November 2013 to 75.1% in February 2014.
Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Early March report: Consumer confidence slipped to a reading of 79.9 in March. All of the decline in March was driven by consumer attitudes towards expectations for the next 6 months. Consumer attitudes towards present condition rose, probably related to some improvement in activity due to the beginning of the spring thaw. Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. 1966 = 100
Number of U.S. Jobs Created/Lost Seasonally Adjusted February 2014: Nonfarm employment rose by 175,000 in February. Construction employment increased by 15,000, following an increase of 50,000 in January. Compared to February 2013, construction employment was up 3%. Relative to January 2013, nonfarm employment was up 1.7%. In another report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the number of job openings was 7.6% greater than in February 2013. In the same report, BLS estimates that the number of job openings in the construction industry was up 38% from a year ago. Source: www.bls.gov/cps/ Tables B and B-1, Establishment data. Next report April 4. Thousands of Jobs Gained or Lost
The unemployment rate edged up to 6.7% in February. The unemployment rate estimate comes from the Survey of Households, which showed an increase in the number of employed people of just 42,000. The labor force participation rates was unchanged at 63%. The gain in employment did not keep up with the increase in the labor force due to population growth, hence the rise in the unemployment rate. U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally adjusted Source: http://data.bls.gov Tables Summary A & A-15: U-3 and U-6. (Bureau of: Labor Statistics)http://data.bls.gov
U. S. Retail Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/retail/ Next report: April 14.http://www.census.gov/retail/ February: Retail sales rose 0.3% in February following two months of declines. Compared to February 2013 retail sales were up just 1.5%. This rate of growth on a year ago month basis is the lowest since 2009. Weather is still said to have negatively impacted sales as some people realized lower incomes than otherwise as hours worked fell off due to businesses being closed. Also higher heating bills have probably cut into household budgets for retail spending. Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores rose 0.4% in February following a decline in sales for the prior three months that totaled 5.5%.
Retail Sales – Building Materials & Supply Dealers ( Seasonally adjusted, does not include garden equipment and supplies) $ Billions Sales rose 1% in January to $22.1 billion. Compared to January 2013, sales were up 2.8%. An advanced estimate is not yet available for January 2014. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/retail/http://www.census.gov/retail/ $22.1 Billion
U.S. GDP +2.4% In Q-4 (2nd Estimate) Source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Next report: March 27. Real Annualized Rate – Constant Dollar The second estimate for growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 shows real GDP up at an annual rate of 2.4% and 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2012. The downward revisions were largely in inventory investment and construction, both residential and nonresidential. Real GDP--- 2011: 1.8% 2012: 2.8% 2013: 1.9% 2014 Forecast: 2.8% 2015 Forecast: 2.7% Q-4 2.4%