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RISK AND RETURN MODERN PORTFOLIO CONCEPT

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Return Defined The return is the total gain or loss experienced on an investment over a given period of time. Where: kt = actual, expected, or required rate of return during period t Pt = price (value) of asset at time t Pt-1 = price (value) of asset at time t ‑ 1 Ct = cash (flow) received from the asset investment in the time period t ‑ 1 to t

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Return Measurement Where: ▫ki = return for the ith outcome ▫Pri = probability of occurrence of the ith outcome ▫n = number of outcomes considered Approach 1

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Example: Weighted value PossibleProbabilityReturn [(I) x (2)] outcomes (1) (2) (3) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Asset A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pessimistic.2513%3.25% Most likely.50157.50 Optimistic.25174.25 Total 1.00 Expected return15.00% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Asset B ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pessimistic.257%1.75% Most likely.50157.50 Optimistic.25235.75 Total 1.00Expected return 15.00%

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Approach 2 Periode pengamatanTingkat returnProbabilitas 200116%20% 200218%20% 200320%22% 200417%20% 200521%23% Hitunglah expected return berdasarkan 2 metode di atas!

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Risk Defined Risk is the chance of financial loss. A government bond that guarantees its holder $100 interest after 30 days has no risk, because there is no variability associated with the return. A $100 investment in a firm's common stock, which over the same period may earn anywhere from $0 to $200, is very risky due to the high variability of return.

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Risk Preferences Feelings about risk differ among managers (and firms). ▫Risk ‑ indifferent ▫Risk ‑ averse ▫Risk ‑ seeking

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Risk of a Single Asset Risk Assessment ▫Risk can be assessed using sensitivity analysis and probability distributions, which provide a feel for the level of risk embodied in a given asset. ▫Sensitivity Analysis: Uses a number of possible return estimates to obtain a of the variability among outcomes. One common method involves estimating the pessimistic (worst), the most likely (expected), and the optimistic (best) returns associated with a given asset. The asset's risk can be measured by the range, which is found by subtracting the pessimistic outcome from the optimistic outcome. The greater the range for a given asset, the more variability, or risk, it is said to have.

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Asset AAsset B ----------------------------------------------------------- Initial investment$10,000$10,000 Annual rate of return Pessimistic13%7% Most likely15%15% Optimistic17%23% Range4%16%

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Probability Distributions A probability distribution is a model that relates probabilities to the associated outcomes. The simplest type of probability distribution is the bar chart, which shows only a limited number of outcome ‑ probability coordinates.

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Continous Probability Distribution for asset A and B

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Unsystematic Risk Systematic risk Jumlah jenis saham Risiko

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Unsystematic risk disebut juga Diversifiable risk, resiko yang masih dapat dihindari Mis : mogok karyawan, lawsuits Systematic Risk disebut juga nonDiversifiable risk, resiko yang tidak dapat dihindari Mis : interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk

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Types of Risk Business risk Financial risk Interest rate risk Liquidity risk Market risk Event risk Exchange rate risk Purchasing power risk Tax risk Firm-Specific Risks Shareholder-Specific Risks Firm and Shareholder Risks

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Firm Specific Risk Business Risk : berkaitan erat dengan keuntungan Financial Risk : berkaitan dengan utang

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Shareholders Specific Risk Interest Rate Risk : berkaitan dengan perubahan tingkat bunga di pasar Liquidity Risk : berkaitan dengan penjualan asset yang secara mudah dengan harga yang wajar di pasar Market Risk : berkaitan dengan index harga saham

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Firm and Shareholders Risk Event Risk : berkaitan dengan even2 atau peristiwa yang dapat mempengaruhi nilai perusahaan Exchange Rate Risk : berkaitan dengan nilai tukar mata uang di kemudian hari beserta fluktuasinya Purchasing – Power Risk : berkaitan dengan inflasi dan deflasi Tax Risk : berkaitan dengan perubahan hukum pajak

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Risk Measurement Risk is measure with standard deviation, Approach 1 Approach 2

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Coefficient of Variation Coefficient of variation, CV, is a measure of relative dispersion that is useful in comparing the risk of assets with differing expected returns. The higher the coefficient of variation, the greater the risk.

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Return of a Portfolio Where: ▫wj = proportion of the portfolio's total dollar value represented by asset ▫kj = return on asset j

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Risk of Portfolio Portfolio return : ∑ (Proportion x Return X)+ (Proportion x Return Y)

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Correlation Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship, if any, between series of numbers representing data of any kind, from returns to test scores. ▫+1 for perfectly positively correlated series ▫ ‑ 1 for perfectly negatively correlated series ▫Uncorrelated

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Diversification The concept of correlation is essential to developing an efficient portfolio. Combining negatively correlated assets can reduce the overall variability of returns.

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For example, assume that you manufacture machine tools. The business is very cyclical, with high sales when the economy is expanding and low sales during a recession. If you acquired another machine ‑ tool company, with sales positively correlated with those of your firm, the combined sales would still be cyclical, and risk would remain the same. Alternatively, however, you could acquire a sewing ‑ machine manufacturer, which is countercyclical. It typically has low sales during economic expansion and high sales during recession (when consumers are more likely to make their own clothes). Combination with the sewing ‑ machine manufacturer, which has negatively correlated sales, should reduce risk.

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Correlation, Diversification, Risk, and Return The lower the correlation between asset returns, the greater the potential diversification of risk. T A B L E 6. 6, Correlation, Return, and Risk for Various Two ‑ Asset Portfolio Combinations Correlation coefficientRange of return Range of risk + 1 (perfect positive)Between returns of two assetsBetween risk of two held in isolation assets held in isolation 0 (uncorrelated)Between returns of two assetsBetween risk of most held in isolation risky asset and an amount less than risk of least risky asset but greater than 0 -1 (perfect negative)Between returns of two assetsBetween risk of most held in isolation risky asset and 0

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Example A firm has calculated the expected return and the risk for each of two assets ‑ R and S. AssetExpected return Risk (standard deviation), R6% 3% S88

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Risk and Return: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

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Total security risk = nondeversifiable risk + diversifiable risk Diversifiable risk, sometimes called unsystematic risk, represents the portion of an asset's risk that is associated with random causes that can be eliminated through diversification (strikes. lawsuits, regulatory actions) Nondiversifiable risk, also called systematic risk, is attributable to market factors that affect all firms; it cannot be eliminated through diversification. Factors such as war, inflation international incidents, and political events account for nondiversifiable risk.

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Beta Coefficient Beta coefficient, b, measures nondiversifiable risk. It is an index of the degree of movement of an asset's return in response to a change in the market return. An asset's historical returns are used in finding the asset's beta coefficient. The market return is the return on ‑ the market portfolio of all traded securities. Beta Individual: n (∑XY) – (∑X) (∑Y) n (∑X 2 ) – (∑X) 2 Dimana X adalah Return pasar (IHSG) Beta portfolio: ∑ (Proporsi x beta A) + (Proporsi x beta B)

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Jika beta >1 berarti saham tersebut memiliki risiko yang lebih tinggi dari risiko pasar (IHSG) dan saham tersebut termasuk saham agresif. Sebaliknya jika Beta < 1 maka risiko lebih rendah dari risiko IHSG saham defensif

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Hitunglah Beta (β) individu dari return A!

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Tentukan Beta (β) portfolio V dan W !

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The Model: CAPM The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) links together nondiversifiable risk and return for all assets. CAPM: Risk Free (SBI) beta = 0 Return Market (IHSG)/ beta pasar beta =1 CAPM= Rf + (β x (Rm-Rf))

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The Graph: The Security Market Line (SML) When the capital asset pricing model is depicted graphically, it is called the security market line (SML). The SML will, in fact, be a straight line. It reflects the required return in the marketplace for each level of nondiversifiable risk (beta). In the graph, risk as measured by beta, b, is plotted on the x axis, and required returns, k, are plotted on the y axis.

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Jika Expected return, E(R) < SML = overvalue Dan Jika Expected return, E(R) > SML = undervalue

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Risk free rate= 15% Market return= 20% Tentukan return yang diisyaratkan (CAPM/ SML) untuk setiap asset di atas dan gambarlah grafik SML serta tentukan Asset yang undervalue atau overvalue!

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Grafik SML Required return Risk (Beta) 0.51.01.52.02.5 5 10 15 20 25 A = E(R)A B C E(R) B E(R) C RfRf SML Equilibrium Undervalue Overvalue

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