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Professor John J. McConnell. In my opinion, stock prices CANNOT be predicted.

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Presentation on theme: "Professor John J. McConnell. In my opinion, stock prices CANNOT be predicted."— Presentation transcript:

1 Professor John J. McConnell

2 In my opinion, stock prices CANNOT be predicted.

3  After consulting the ‘January Barometer’ Wall Street meteorologists have concluded the forecast for the stock market this year is decidedly pleasant. --- Business Week,1984  Another seasonal signal worth watching --- and possibly playing through options --- is the January Barometer, or the strong tendency of stock indexes to rise in years when they were up in January and fall when the first month is down. --- Barron’s, 1999  From mid-January through early February, the stock market came under some heavy selling pressure. A negative January barometer has us concerned for the coming months, and the year as a whole. --- Barron’s, 2010

4 “The barometer, which indicates that as January goes, so will the market go for the total year, has proven correct in 20 of the last 24 years. The performance of this indicator becomes even more striking when you consider its simplicity, coupled with the fact that it is making its prediction eleven months in advance.” --- Yale Hirsch (1974) The Stock Trader’s Almanac

5  “On the one hand, I am a believer in the efficient market hypothesis,” said John J. McConnell, a finance professor at the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University who has studied the January phenomenon. “On the other hand, given that the other January effect was such a powerful predictor of the market during the past year, I am chastened. The market has a way of humbling us all.” --- The New York Times, 3 January 2009

6  For the 152 years from 1857 through positive Januarys: - Next 11-month return = 11.01% - 52 negative Januarys: - Next 11-month return = 2.84%

7 Figure month compounded excess returns for years when the January return was positive from 1940 to positive Januarys 39 positive 11-month returns Average 11-month returns =11.71%

8 Figure month compounded excess returns for years when the January return was negative from 1940 to negative January years 15 negative 11-month returns Average 11-month returns =-3.65%

9  For the 24 years from 1950 through 1973 (Hirsch Period) 15 positive Januarys: Next11-month return = 21.93% 9 negative Januarys: Next11-month return = -2.89%  For the 35 years from 1974 through positive Januarys: Next11-month return = 18.07% 12 negative Januarys: Next11-month return = -0.13%

10  Long-only  Long/short  Long/t-bill  T-bill-only  January-plus-t-bill A purely passive strategy of being long the market all the time A strategy of being long the market over the 11 months following positive January and being short the market over the 11 month following negative January (coupled with being long the market during all January) A strategy of being long the market over the 11 months following positive January and being in t-bills over the 11 month following negative January (coupled with being long the market during all January) A strategy of investing in t-bills all the time A strategy of being long the market during all Januarys and investing in t-bills during the other months of the year

11 Figure 3. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

12 Figure 4. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

13 Figure 5. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

14 Figure 6. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

15 Figure 7. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer, 1857 – 2010, excluding (Hirsch’s years)

16  2009 January return = -7.75%; 11-month subsequent return = 42.67%  2010 January return = -3.71% 11-month subsequent return = 22.61%  2011 January return = 3.19% 8-month subsequent return = %

17 Figure 8. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

18 Figure 9. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

19 Figure 10. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,

20 Figure 11. Wealth accumulation based on the January Barometer,


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