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Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID and the Printing Industry A ten year view Dr Peter IDTechEx.

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Presentation on theme: "Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID and the Printing Industry A ten year view Dr Peter IDTechEx."— Presentation transcript:

1 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID and the Printing Industry A ten year view Dr Peter Harropp.harrop@idtechex.com IDTechEx www.idtechex.com Phone 44 1223 813703

2 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID, smart labels, smart packaging and printed electronics. Our core services provide: ConsultancyPublicationsConferences Clients include: Hewlett Packard Shell Oil Rexam Whirlpool Europe Guinness UDV Thin Film Electronics Schiphol Airport Major Japanese computer, printing and packaging companies Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics Smart Labels Analyst – monthly. Printed Electronics Review Worlds largest RFID case study knowledgebase-1800 Global Conferences: USA, Europe and Asia RFID Smart Labels Printed Electronics Smart Packaging Active RFID

3 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Radio Frequency Identification is the electronic reading of data on small objects called tags using radio frequencies or thereabouts Compared to barcodes, magnetic stripes, print etc, RFID has few problems of orientation, obscuration or reading many at a time. It is also useful for other tasks. RFID is an enabling technology What is RFID?

4 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Tag Reader sends signal and reads response RFID System Basics For range of more than a few meters, the tag may have a battery in it = active

5 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943- start of 2006

6 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Evolution of RFID applications Item levelpostal,retail,drugs etcin veryhighvolumes

7 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx ApplicationNumber millionWhy Drugs item level20Pfizer, GSK anticounterfeit …. Library, laundry, apparel801-2 year payback: cost, service Pallets/ cases500 $0.09 billionBig problems but will save cost/ improve service Cards285 $0.63 billionChina national ID: financial, security, transport Tickets/ secure documents 25Portugal, Japan: security, speed Air baggage85Las Vegas, Hong Kong: cost, service, security Livestock100 $0.2 billionNew laws: safety, cost Car clickers46Consumer demand Passports10New laws: security Other131Manufacture, health, vehicle etc Possible sales in 2006

8 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID tag numbers Mainly apparel drugs postal retail

9 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID Other tag numbers

10 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Library0.1Singapore Museums, art galleries0.1Europe National ID cards0.1China Laundry1Europe Animals1Thailand, S America, US, Eur. Tires 1 Europe Military items2US Blood2Europe/US Archiving paperwork2US Air baggage2US, China Air freight2US Drugs 30 US Pallets, cases40US, Europe Books50Japan Postal650Europe Retail items10,000Europe/Japan/US ITEM LEVEL IN RED Global Potential (Billion/Year)RFID Leadership A few examples of RFID tag potential

11 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Passive RFID Examples

12 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Marks & Spencer, UK Tokyo Shirt Japan Liti, Japan Goldwin Sportswear, Italy Metro Germany (trials only) DHL Fashion France Passive RFID – largest item level application in retailing is apparel

13 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID + GSM Press the button and the incident is recorded centrally with ID and alarm Active with passive RFID Locating children in theme parks and sending messages Some use RFID + Bluetooth or WiFi Many large niche markets for RFID

14 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Reader deployment – open flow traffic at LAX airport More roads have tolling

15 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx KSW Microtec RFID tag with printed paper battery and temperature sensing. 13.56 MHz, range one meter $1-2 Infratab $0.45? Monitors blood samples, foods, drugs RFID labels with sensing Partly screen printed

16 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Logistics Security Safety Traceability / product recall Anti-counterfeiting Proof of ownership Product handshaking Carrying information around Transactions Positioning / locating Amusement – toys Brand enhancement Diagnostics Often more than one application: 20% of applications replace nothing e.g. car clicker, talking drugs, Star Wars toy… Applications of Low Cost RFID

17 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets EPCglobal: Managed by GS1 Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure Over 550 sponsor companies The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System – unique ID of vast numbers of things, interrogated over the internet

18 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4% due to reducing stockouts Smart Shelves

19 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 2006 1.Secure access/financial 2.Transport 3.Supply chain Yearly: 1.3 billion 2016 1.Supply chain 2.Security 3.Transport Yearly: 593 billion Main Uses of Low Cost RFID Starting to be printed directly onto packages and products for highest volumes – no need for a label?

20 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx One day, highest volume RFID will be printed directly onto things but special inks and press adaptation will be needed The peak in numbers is later Barcodes printed direct RFID printed direct

21 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID value chain

22 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx The end game for highest volume RFID is direct printing

23 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Mandates and recommendations e.g. Wal-Mart, Tesco, Metro, Target, Albertsons, Best Buy, US Military etc A relatively unproven frequency – UHF – was chosen because it sometimes has long range without a battery Wal-Mart is making RFID data it reads available to suppliers within 30 minutes though its Retail Link extranet website Wal-Mart gets a payback, even though there are technical problems Pallet/case tagging – largest volume in 2006/7

24 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx … happening faster than most think Pfizer Viagra in US NOW, ten other drug brands by end 2006. FDA mandate expected 2006/7 Library – 50 million RFID labels yearly already, laundry, large retail items, parts in manufacture, aircraft parts, luxury goods – ongoing DHL trials on courier parcels – tender taken for one billion yearly Item Level Tagging – largest volume after 2008

25 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Item level RFID labelling is the big opportunity Item Pallet/ case a few billion 2006 2008 2010 0.5 billion 27 billion

26 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx National ID – contactless cards (HF) $2-3 each E.g. Italy – 50 million U.K. – 58 million? India – 600 million? China – 970 million (anticipated completion 2010) Electronic passport labels (HF) $3-4 each 400m E.g.Australia (2004 roll out) USA (2004 roll out) Thailand Europe etc. Large niche opportunities for label and label-like RFID

27 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Conveyances (e.g. pallets, containers), baggage etc – smart labels (UHF) Potential demand 35 billion per year. E.g. Pallets and cases for consumer packaged goods Airline baggage (2 billion yearly e.g. McCarran Airport, 100m) plus airline cargo 5 cent tag price needed to tag all conveyances Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola Tens of Billions Billions 10c 5c Hot applications driving volume to 2015

28 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx First high volume retail products are expensive items eg computers, printers, white goods, apparel, drugs etc Next will come other expensive products plus high shrinkage products eg DVDs, CDs, razors, batteries, perfume, cigarettes One cent tag price needed to tag most items Unilever, Procter & Gamble Apparel and footwear economically tagged at todays prices Accenture 2016: <10% of products/primary packages carry an RFID smart label (in addition to a barcode). Progression of item level tagging

29 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 1. Printing of the antennas at UHF (around 900MHz) and above – mainly screen then gravure 2. Printing antennas at lower frequencies – some screen but faster printing of thick, high definition patterns needed 3. Printing the replacement for the silicon chip – Thin Film Transistor Circuits TFTCs – exploring offset litho, gravure, flexo, ink jet 4. Wild card – ink stripes flexo, ink jet The Printing of RFID

30 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx EAS (Electronic Article Surveillance 1 to 4 cents) Acoustomagnetic, swept RF (LC), electromagnetic. Chipless RFID (0.1 to 200 cents) F or highest volume – TFTCs, ink stripes (many others) Passive chip RFID (10 to 800 cents) Ticket, label, card. Chip powered by the reader. Active chip RFID (with battery from $1 to $100) Long range (m), real time location, sensors. Emits continuous signal for positioning. Increasing cost & sophistication Technology overview

31 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx How to make high volume RFID tags today The only fully proven technology involves a silicon chip and an antenna Choose between putting the chip on a strap then putting the strap on the antenna or putting the chip directly on the antenna STRAP

32 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Choose substrate and antenna technology Experimental screen printed UHF antenna on low grade card. Chip is applied on a strap Polyester film is the most popular substrate at present. Antenna production is still often done by subtractive processes such as copper or aluminium etching but additive processes such as printing are more economical

33 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 125KHz=LF 13.56MHz=HF UHF 2.45GHz Inductive antenna - flooding Electric antenna - beaming Passive RFID: Main operating frequencies A coil talks to a coil – high conductivity and accurate shape needed A rod like dipole on the tag – many shapes for different applications but poor conductance and resolution OK

34 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Frequency characteristics –Directionality of tags –Range –Tag size –Antenna shape –Radio regulations (e.g. global variances) Application environment Data on tag or network Read-only or read-write Multi-tag reading Healthcare: absolute performance criteria Cause dangerous interference in e.g. hospitals and airports RFID challenges and considerations

35 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Tags Dead on Arrival (DoA) from supplier! –Some cases reports of >20% Tags dead on touch (static electricity) Severe problems with water and metal, especially at UHF Need to print antennas at high speed with little ink – so they are cheap and do not crack Range depends on antenna design and size and environment – many different antenna designs needed RFID Challenges and Considerations –problems with the UHF types chosen for pallets, cases and airline baggage

36 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx FREQUENCIES – good things

37 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 125-135 kHz (LF) 13.56MHz (HF) Range usually under 1m (signal drops as cube of distance) Slow data transfer Bulky tag e.g. bullet or button at 125KHz Easily reflected or absorbed (read reliability problems with metal and fluids) Health issues Busy frequencies Large tag for a few cms range Range is unpredictable Expensive reader Negatives become more extreme FREQUENCIES – bad things UHF2.45GHz Best compromise for most appllcations. 55% of tags ever made are HF and over 70% will be in 2016

38 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 2016 2006 1. 13.56MHz 1. 13.56MHz 2. UHF (but the largest number) 2. UHF Value of sales shifts to UHF being more important but still number two Cards (credit cards, secure access, national ID etc), tickets, library, laundry, drugs, postal, passports, most other items, many conveyances Pallets, cases, airline baggage, some conveyances and vehicles

39 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx UHF tags need very different antennas for different applications

40 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Solve some of the remaining problems HF tags sometimes have screen printed antennas but they are bigger and have less range. Make them in high volume, cheaper and better UHF tags are too large for highest volume item level and are too expensive Good news – both UHF and HF silicon chip RFID labels will get down to 5 cents in billions and may get down to 3 cents in much larger quantities. Fully printed versions will eventually be one cent or less

41 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Its tough to handle the new very small chips This is the enormous old 0.3 mm version The new Hitachi Mew chip in 2006 0.15mm across, 7.5 µm thick No supply famines? No brittleness problems Can go in paper etc. Very low cost – potentially one cent naked in tens of billions

42 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Acoustomagnetic 35 million sold Remote magneticsSimple Electromagnetic Radiation hard. Thinnest option, Barkhausen effect 70 million sold. Very secure Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) < 1M sold, Meets standards. Radiation hard TransistorlessDiode based Suitable for insect tracking circuits Coil-capacitor (LC) Hundreds of thousands sold. Thin and robust Transistor circuitsPolymer Electronics Printable onto products. Meets standards. Silicon film High frequencies possible Develop chipless tags – the end game for highest volumes

43 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx FIRST GENERATION: Closed systems i.e. single service provider, no standards, usually little memory - anticounterfeiting, antitamper, secure access, product diversion, in house- track and trace, automated error prevention. Acoustomagnetic, electromagnetic, LC Array SECOND GENERATION: Open systems i.e. multiple service provider, global standards e.g. EPC. Barcode replacement and more - SAW and later polymer TFTCs and maybe thin film silicon TFTCs and maybe the secret VTT/Panipol printed polyanilene label which has 96 bits read only but only at a few mm range and needs movement. Develop entirely printed chipless tags – the end game for highest volumes

44 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Concealed printable memory for item level identification. Compliant with RFID EPC TM Tag Data Standards* Integrated to the package structure Can be integrated to other functionalities –Tamper evidence, temperature sensing Short range reading method (range up to ~mms) –A local electric field generated by a reading device –HIDE is decoded in less than a second when it passes through the field *Defined by EPCglobal Inc TM RFID without transistors Hidden Electronic Product Code (HidE) lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

45 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 50+ companies Xerox, Toshiba, Plastic Logic, Epson, Canon,, IBM, PolyIC, OrganicID, 3M… 13.56MHz EPC label in 2007 Printed thin film transistor circuits

46 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Experimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating, semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns Offset litho, flexo and gravure being tried

47 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx 2006200820122015 Billions of tags0.13100550 IDTechEx forecast for item level tags 45% chipless? 99% labels

48 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Reports RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities 2006- 2016 Active RFID 2006-2016 Item Level RFID Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016 Conferences RFID Smart Labels Europe, London 19-20 Sept Printed Electronics USA 5-6 Dec The RFID Knowledgebase – Worlds largest database of RFID in action Over 1800 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 1900 companies, 68 countries Learn from the successes and failures of others www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703 For further information read:


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