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How to Approach the future? Jan-Evert Nilsson Blekinge Institute of Technology.

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Presentation on theme: "How to Approach the future? Jan-Evert Nilsson Blekinge Institute of Technology."— Presentation transcript:

1 How to Approach the future? Jan-Evert Nilsson Blekinge Institute of Technology

2 The Dilemma of Policy-making TIME PASTTIME FUTURE TIME PRESENT KNOWLEDGEPOLICY-MAKING

3 The Assumption Time present and time past are both perhaps present in time future and time future contained in time past Four Quartets. A poem by T.S Elliot

4 Perspectives on the Future – the Classical View Meeting the future Prediction, Scenario TIME PRESENT TIME PASTTIME FUTURE

5 Explain History and Predict the Future TIME PASTTIME FUTURE Prediction = F (Initial circumstances, Theory) Explanation = F (Initial circumstances, Theory) TIME PRESENT

6 The Limitations of Planning In essence, planning is an exercise in a non- deterministic conception of history, though it recognizes the limitations put up by existing conditions and forces and their causal interrelations. Gunnar Myrdal Beyond the Welfare State. 1960

7 Regions in transition  Regions are a territory without ability act  Actors in a region are meeting the future  The changes are interpreted in the terms of past experiences  History defines the recognized opportunities and…  …result in a path dependent development

8 Perspectives on the Future – The Modern View Creating the future Plan, Strategy TIME PRESENT TIME FUTURETIME PAST

9 Storytelling and “Images” of the Future Storytelling = F (Evidence, Concepts) Future Images = F (Future actions, Concepts) TIME PASTTIME FUTURE TIME PRESENT

10 People always live in the time between a better future and the good old days Henrik Tikkanen Faces and views 1980 Present Time

11 Europe faces a moment of transformation... The EU must now take charge of its future. We need a strategy to help us come out stronger from the crisis and to turn EU into a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy delivering high levels of employment, productivity an social cohesion. (European Commission 2010)

12 Managing the future – Three Approaches 1)The reactive approach;  Solve existing problems 2)The active approach;  Upgrade existing structures 3)The pro-active approach  Build the new

13 When Rhetoric Meets Reality  On one hand EU are unsuccessful in meeting actual problems of the Union.  On the other hand do the Union produce a flow of new visions of the bright future they want to build.  The gap between the actual situation and the visions is an alarming chasm In a healthy world an organisation acting like this looks “sick” and will loose its credibility.


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