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Problems with the Electoral College Stephanow, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "Problems with the Electoral College Stephanow, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 Problems with the Electoral College Stephanow, 2006

2 WINNER DID NOT RECEIVE THE MOST POPULAR VOTES YearCandidatePopular VoteElectoral Vote 1824*John Quincy Adams Andrew Jackson Other Candidates 105, ,872 90, *Rutherford B. Hayes Samuel Tilden 4,033,950 4,284, Benjamin Harrison Grover Cleveland 5,444,337 5,540, *George W. Bush Albert Gore, Jr. 50,444,156 50,997, *1824Elected by the House of Representatives because no candidate won a majority. 1876An electoral commission set up to rule on contested election results in three states gave Hayes the presidency. 2000Contested election in Florida decided by U.S. Supreme Court gave Bush the presidency.

3 CLOSE POPULAR VOTE YearCandidatePopular VoteElectoral Vote 1884Grover Cleveland James G. Blaine 4, 911,017 4,848,334 [62,683] John F. Kennedy Richard M. Nixon *Harry F. Byrd 34,227,096 34,108,546 [118,550] Richard M. Nixon Hubert H. Humphrey George C. Wallace 31,785,480 31,275,166 [510,314] 9,906, *George W. Bush Albert Gore, Jr. 50,444,156 50,997,335 [553,179] Received no popular votes but did receive electoral votes as a result of faithless electors.

4 How can someone win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote? GO FOR THE BIG STATES! The 11 largest electoral states = 271! GO FOR THE BIG STATES! The 11 largest electoral states = 271!

5 WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS A TIE? 1800: 1800: Jefferson73Adams 65Jay 1 Jefferson73Adams 65Jay 1 Burr73Pinckney 64 Burr73Pinckney 64 Before the 12th Amendment, everyone ran for President (no VP). Whoever got the most votes won the presidency; the runner-up got the VP spot. Before the 12th Amendment, everyone ran for President (no VP). Whoever got the most votes won the presidency; the runner-up got the VP spot. When there was a tie, the election of the President goes to the House of Representatives. They voted for Jefferson for Pres. When there was a tie, the election of the President goes to the House of Representatives. They voted for Jefferson for Pres. The 12th Amendment was made which stated that the Pres. and the VP would be voted on separately by electors. This guarantees no tie between the one running for Pres. and the one running for VP, and that the VP will most likely be from the same political party. The 12th Amendment was made which stated that the Pres. and the VP would be voted on separately by electors. This guarantees no tie between the one running for Pres. and the one running for VP, and that the VP will most likely be from the same political party. Today, when the people vote in November, we vote for Pres/VP teams. (Bush/Cheney) (Kerry/Edwards). One vote, votes for both. Today, when the people vote in November, we vote for Pres/VP teams. (Bush/Cheney) (Kerry/Edwards). One vote, votes for both.

6 A Few Decide for the Many…

7 Where the power really was in 2008.

8

9 Proposals… There have been over 700 bills filed in Congress since 1800, to change the Electoral College.

10 Proportional Plan This system has been proposed with a number of variations, most recently in Colorado. As a popular alternative, it splits each states electoral votes in accordance with their popular vote percentages. This way, a candidate who come in second place in a state with 45% of the popular vote would receive 45% of the electoral votes from that state, instead of 0%. This system has been proposed with a number of variations, most recently in Colorado. As a popular alternative, it splits each states electoral votes in accordance with their popular vote percentages. This way, a candidate who come in second place in a state with 45% of the popular vote would receive 45% of the electoral votes from that state, instead of 0%. Texas would have been: McCain19(55.5%) McCain19(55.5%) Obama15(43.8%) Obama15(43.8%) Barr 0(.7%) Barr 0(.7%)

11 Proportional Plan Pros This system would greatly increase voter turnout and the representation of all parties in a state. It would also encourage candidates to campaign in all states rather than just those that are competitive. Though the majority, as always, would come out on top in each state, the minority's supporters would not be effectively contributing to their candidate's defeat when the whole of their state's electoral votes go a candidate they do not support. This system would greatly increase voter turnout and the representation of all parties in a state. It would also encourage candidates to campaign in all states rather than just those that are competitive. Though the majority, as always, would come out on top in each state, the minority's supporters would not be effectively contributing to their candidate's defeat when the whole of their state's electoral votes go a candidate they do not support.

12 Proportional Plan Cons One problem with this system is the question of how to allocate electors proportionally. Percentages will seldom be equal to a whole elector after being proportioned, and a single elector could not be evenly divided among two or more candidates. Some suggest that one way to patch this problem of uneven electors would be to increase the number of electoral votes by a factor of 10 or 100 or more to reduce the margin of error. Others suggest rounding to whole votes, tenth votes, and a whole variety of decimal places beyond this. However, each of these, though reducing the amount of error, would still permit error and not succeed as thoroughly in making each vote count equally. One problem with this system is the question of how to allocate electors proportionally. Percentages will seldom be equal to a whole elector after being proportioned, and a single elector could not be evenly divided among two or more candidates. Some suggest that one way to patch this problem of uneven electors would be to increase the number of electoral votes by a factor of 10 or 100 or more to reduce the margin of error. Others suggest rounding to whole votes, tenth votes, and a whole variety of decimal places beyond this. However, each of these, though reducing the amount of error, would still permit error and not succeed as thoroughly in making each vote count equally.

13 Proportional Plan Cons This would be difficult to pass on a nationwide basis and would most likely have to pass state- by-state. During this process, or even in the end if some states do not adopt the process, one party might gain an unfair advantage. This could happen if some states were dividing up their electoral votes while others were still giving all of their votes to the majority party. For instance, imagine California switching to a proportional allocation while Texas sticks with winner-take- all. This would be difficult to pass on a nationwide basis and would most likely have to pass state- by-state. During this process, or even in the end if some states do not adopt the process, one party might gain an unfair advantage. This could happen if some states were dividing up their electoral votes while others were still giving all of their votes to the majority party. For instance, imagine California switching to a proportional allocation while Texas sticks with winner-take- all.

14 Congressional District Plan This method divides electoral votes by district, allocating one vote to each district and using the remaining two as a bonus for the statewide popular vote winner. This method of distribution has been used in Maine since 1972 and Nebraska since 1996, though neither state has had a statewide winner that has not swept all of the Congressional districts as well. Consequently, neither state has ever spilt its electoral votes. This method divides electoral votes by district, allocating one vote to each district and using the remaining two as a bonus for the statewide popular vote winner. This method of distribution has been used in Maine since 1972 and Nebraska since 1996, though neither state has had a statewide winner that has not swept all of the Congressional districts as well. Consequently, neither state has ever spilt its electoral votes.

15 Maine & Nebraska

16 Texas by Congressional District, 2000 Blue is Republican Red is Democrat

17 Congressional District Pros Votes would be more representational of peoples vote in each district. Votes would be more representational of peoples vote in each district.

18 Congressional District Cons This system does not address the disproportional aspects of the Electoral College. Using Congressional districts to determine each elector would also draw more attention to the way districts are drawn, already a hot-topic in politics today. The vast majority of districts are drawn as safe zones for one of the two major political parties. For this reason, basing electoral vote allocation on Congressional districts as well would raise the stakes of redistricting considerably and make gerrymandering even more tempting. This system does not address the disproportional aspects of the Electoral College. Using Congressional districts to determine each elector would also draw more attention to the way districts are drawn, already a hot-topic in politics today. The vast majority of districts are drawn as safe zones for one of the two major political parties. For this reason, basing electoral vote allocation on Congressional districts as well would raise the stakes of redistricting considerably and make gerrymandering even more tempting.

19 Congressional District Cons Also, while the current system causes the candidates to pay the most attention to just a handful of states, the Congressional District method would actually make their attention even more tunneled. There are normally anywhere from competitive swing states in any given election. However, with this method, candidates would rather shift their focuses to competitive districts, the number of which would be small enough to further reduce the reach of presidential campaigns, promises and attention. Also, while the current system causes the candidates to pay the most attention to just a handful of states, the Congressional District method would actually make their attention even more tunneled. There are normally anywhere from competitive swing states in any given election. However, with this method, candidates would rather shift their focuses to competitive districts, the number of which would be small enough to further reduce the reach of presidential campaigns, promises and attention.

20 National Bonus Plan This idea, proposed by historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr., retains the current Electoral College system, but also awards extra electoral votes as a bonus to the winner of the popular vote. The amount suggested by Schlesinger in his National Bonus Plan is 102 extra electoral votes (two for every state and two for Washington, DC). The extra boost of electoral votes would almost always be able to guarantee that the popular vote winner would also be the electoral college winner. While technically maintaining the institution, this option compensates for the uneven power given to the states by the Electoral College. This idea, proposed by historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr., retains the current Electoral College system, but also awards extra electoral votes as a bonus to the winner of the popular vote. The amount suggested by Schlesinger in his National Bonus Plan is 102 extra electoral votes (two for every state and two for Washington, DC). The extra boost of electoral votes would almost always be able to guarantee that the popular vote winner would also be the electoral college winner. While technically maintaining the institution, this option compensates for the uneven power given to the states by the Electoral College.

21 National Bonus Plan This method does not eliminate the spoiler dynamic of third party participation, but ti would encourage people to campaign and vote in non- competitive states in an attempt to win the popular vote. In the 2008 election, for example, Gore had no reason to campaign in Texas because, with a winner take all allocation of electoral votes, Bushs conservative home state was clearly going to bring in a Republican majority. However, the Democratic voters living in Texas would have had more incentive to go to the polls if the popular vote affected the election. This situation is the same for the second place party in every state. This method does not eliminate the spoiler dynamic of third party participation, but ti would encourage people to campaign and vote in non- competitive states in an attempt to win the popular vote. In the 2008 election, for example, Gore had no reason to campaign in Texas because, with a winner take all allocation of electoral votes, Bushs conservative home state was clearly going to bring in a Republican majority. However, the Democratic voters living in Texas would have had more incentive to go to the polls if the popular vote affected the election. This situation is the same for the second place party in every state.

22 Direct Vote with Plurality Rule This method would abolish the Electoral College and require each person to cast one vote for the candidate of their choice. The candidate who receives the most votes nationwide would win the election, with or without a majority of the votes. This option would require a constitutional amendment to be implemented and would therefore need the support of 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states. This method would abolish the Electoral College and require each person to cast one vote for the candidate of their choice. The candidate who receives the most votes nationwide would win the election, with or without a majority of the votes. This option would require a constitutional amendment to be implemented and would therefore need the support of 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.

23 Direct Vote Pros This method of voting would more accurately reflect the popular will of the nation at large. Statistics have shown that more people vote when they know that their vote has a better chance at making a difference. Since each vote would affect the final total used to determine the winner, a direct vote would eliminate the Electoral Colleges ability to create a non- competitive winner-take-all enclave that essentially dilutes peoples votes. Direct elections are simple and popular, and eliminate the potential problem of faithless electors betraying their pledges to party and public, and unfairly negating any number of popular votes. This method of voting would more accurately reflect the popular will of the nation at large. Statistics have shown that more people vote when they know that their vote has a better chance at making a difference. Since each vote would affect the final total used to determine the winner, a direct vote would eliminate the Electoral Colleges ability to create a non- competitive winner-take-all enclave that essentially dilutes peoples votes. Direct elections are simple and popular, and eliminate the potential problem of faithless electors betraying their pledges to party and public, and unfairly negating any number of popular votes.

24 Who would have won in 2000 under this plan? Candidate Popular Vote % George W. Bush 50,460, % George W. Bush 50,460, % Albert Gore 51,003, % Albert Gore 51,003, % Ralph Nader 2,883, % Ralph Nader 2,883, % Patrick Buchanan 449, % Patrick Buchanan 449, % Harry Browne 384, % Harry Browne 384, %

25 Direct Vote Cons A direct vote, however, would not eliminate the entrenchment of the two party system nor the spoiler considerations of minor parties and independent candidates. In a close race, voting for a candidate from a minor party could reinforce the same spoiler dynamic as exists within the current system. There is a possibility that with multiple candidates, a winner could be declared with just a small plurality of votes instead of a strong majority. Also, a close election would require a nation-wide recount rather than just recounting the states in question, which would make the process in such a situation much longer. A direct vote, however, would not eliminate the entrenchment of the two party system nor the spoiler considerations of minor parties and independent candidates. In a close race, voting for a candidate from a minor party could reinforce the same spoiler dynamic as exists within the current system. There is a possibility that with multiple candidates, a winner could be declared with just a small plurality of votes instead of a strong majority. Also, a close election would require a nation-wide recount rather than just recounting the states in question, which would make the process in such a situation much longer.

26 Should the Electoral College Be Abolished?


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