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El Nino - Southern Oscillation. normal or neutral Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water piles up in western Pacific Ocean Water is warmer in western.

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Presentation on theme: "El Nino - Southern Oscillation. normal or neutral Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water piles up in western Pacific Ocean Water is warmer in western."— Presentation transcript:

1 El Nino - Southern Oscillation

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3 normal or neutral Equatorial trade winds blow westward Water piles up in western Pacific Ocean Water is warmer in western Pacific Ocean Upwelling of colder water in eastern Pacific Ocean Normal precip patterns

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6 What is the jet stream? Current of air flowing 150 to 300 mph High in troposphere (about 10 km) Over the boundary between 2 air masses. Usually blows from west to east. Aircraft can use or avoid a jet stream.

7 RETURN OPTIONS: BASIC GRAPHICS MODE | LIMITED GRAPHICS MODE | FULL GRAPHICS MODE BASIC GRAPHICS MODE LIMITED GRAPHICS MODE FULL GRAPHICS MODE

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9 What causes the jet stream? The temperature difference between 2 air masses. The greater the temp. diff., the faster the jet stream. Seasons (temp. diff.) can cause jet stream to shift position. Also the ENSO.

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12 El Nino Tradewinds slow and/or stop Warm water covers more of equator No upwelling in eastern Pacific Ocean (collapse of fishing industry in Peru) Global change in weather patterns

13 NOAA / PMEL / TAO Project Office / El Niño Theme PageNOAAPMELTAO Project OfficeEl Niño Theme Page What are La Niña, El Niño and Normal Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean? La NiñaLa Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatues in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño These are graphics of the Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for the entire Pacific Ocean (70N to 70S).Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis Also see plots of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (the amount that the temperature differs from the normal value for the month).Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Also available is a graph of sea surface temperature for the entire Pacific Ocean.entire Pacific Ocean Graphics are provided by the TAO project and created by Dai McClurg.TAO project You can also see animations of the Reynolds SST and TAO buoy SST from the TAO realtime data page.animations of the Reynolds SSTTAO buoy SSTTAO realtime data page See What is La Nina? Go to the El Niño Theme Page oar.pmel.taogroup@noaa.gov Disclaimer | Privacy PolicyWhat is La Nina?El Niño Theme Pageoar.pmel.taogroup@noaa.govDisclaimerPrivacy Policy

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15 El Niño effect during December through February.

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17 La Nina Increased velocity of westward tradewinds Colder water along more of equator (eastern end) Global change in weather patterns

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20 La Niña effect during December through February.

21 La Niña effect during June through August.

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23 How to forecast the ENSO cycle? Need info about SST, ocean temperatures at depth and winds.

24 Array of TAO/TRITON Approx 70 moorings w/ about 400 buoys Completed Dec 1994 after 10 years 17 ships on 83 cruises from 6 countries (multi-national) In Oct 1999, Japan assumed responsibility for western Pacific moorings (TRITON)

25 TAO/TRITON Tropical Atmosphere & Ocean Motivated by 1982-83 El Nino event

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28 HomeHome | Project overview | Data display | Data delivery | El Niño & La Niña | Site mapProject overviewData displayData deliveryEl Niño & La Niña Site map TAO Project Office NOAATAO Project Office NOAA | Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory 7600 Sand Point Way NE Seattle, WA 98115 atlasrt@noaa.gov Credits | Disclaimer |Privacy PolicyPacific Marine Environmental Laboratory atlasrt@noaa.gov CreditsDisclaimerPrivacy Policy

29 A warning to vandals

30 Moored Buoys of the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Array What is the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean

31 Data from TAO/TRITON Wind velocity SST (sea surface temperatures) Air temp 10 sub-surface temps to depth of 500 meters

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34 Put the TAO/TRITON data into a computer model Now can forecast path of storm track

35 Note that the location of the jetstream is influenced by the location of the convection, e.g. the main mean jetstream for La Niña starts to the left of the normal scenario. These are the teleconnections to our mid- latitude weather.

36 Benefits of accurate ENSO forecasts (hopefully, with predictions up to one year)

37 Drought forecasts Preparation for wildfires Cultivation of drought-tolerant crops Plan food distribution in developing countries

38 Forecast of Excessive Precipitation Preparation for extremes: hurricanes, tornadoes, etc Preparation for local flooding: mudslides Mosquito control in malarial zones Planting of wet-tolerant crops

39 Forecast of change in ocean temperatures Predict profitable fishery sites Monitor health of coral reef ecosystems

40 Economic benefits from forecasts Adjust the production of weather-related goods: vehicles, clothing, shelter Adapt use of recreational facilities: skiing, snowboarding, boating Prepare for fluctuations in consumption of home-heating fuels

41 Review What is ENSO?

42 ENSO The El Nino-Southern Oscillation Cycle During normal years, equatorial trades blow west Ocean is 0.5 m higher & warmer in western Pacific Upwelling currents in eastern Pacific 20 – 30 cm annual precip in San Diego (8 to 12 inches)

43 b. Normal scenario

44 What happens during El Nino?

45 a. El Niño

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47 What happens during La Nina?

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51 Note that the location of the jetstream is influenced by the location of the convection, e.g. the main mean jetstream for La Niña starts to the left of the normal scenario. These are the teleconnections to our mid- latitude weather.

52 search NOAA For more info about ENSO

53 The end


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