Presentation on theme: "The Future of Education in Utah"— Presentation transcript:
1The Future of Education in Utah Richard P. West, Ph.D.Executive DirectorCenter for the School of the FutureUtah State UniversityNew and Aspiring School Leaders ConferenceOgden, UtahJune 16, 2004
2Center for the School of the Future Funded by the Utah State Legislature, 1999 General Session“…to promote best practices in the state’s public education system and encourage cooperative and research development relationships between public and higher education” (HB 7)
3What Will Be The Future of Utah’s Public Education? Studying our history will tell us a great deal about our futureNewton’s First Law of MotionAn object at rest tends to stay at rest and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
4Newton’s First Law of Motion SuccessInterventionFailureAt-risk School/ StudentEvery object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.
5What do we know about the Future? Support for education will be in short supplyOur schools will be crowdedStudents will feel the pressure of increasing standards
6Current and Future Pressures on Utah’s Education System Student enrollmentsStudent diversityEmphasis on outcomesFunding and support
7Projected Student Enrollment Increases: 2000-2030 Enrollment boom begins in 2004700,000 students in 2014 (30-40% increase in 10 yrs.)Statewide the school age population (5 through 17 years) is projected (baseline) to increase by 264,894 or 51.7 percent from 2000 to Nearly 60% (58.8) of the increase is expected to occur in Salt Lake and Utah counties.
8Increasing Student Diversity Utah has become a destination for many recent migrantsUtah’s ethnic diversity has doubled in past 10 yearsRates of increasing diversity are more than twice the national averageImmigration to the U.S. has been at historic levels for the past 30 years in what has been called the Second Great Migration Wave. This foreign born population, which is about 11 percent of the national total, has come primarily from Latin America (51 percent) and Asia (27 percent). The result has been a dramatic increase in the nation’s ethnic and racial diversity in general, and a substantial increase in the Hispanic population in particular. Utah, which has been relatively unaffected by major migrations in the past, has become the destination for many of these more recent migrants, resulting in a significant increase in its diversity. (Figure 2) According to Census 2000, Hispanics are now 9 percent of the Utah population, as compared to 5 percent in 1990.
9Emphasis on Outcomes No Child Left Behind UPASS Performance Plus Employers’ Education CoalitionSB 154 (Public Education Amendments)
10School Funding Contradictions Utah spends a larger percentage of its state budget on education than does any other stateUtah spends a smaller amount of money to educate each student than does any other state
12Two Conditions Combine to Limit Utah’s Funding for Schools Utah has more students per wage earner than does any other stateMore than two-thirds of our state is “owned” by the federal government and generates little or no tax support for education
13These conditions will not change appreciably in the foreseeable future However, our response to these conditions must change
14“…The best way to predict the future is to invent it “…The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn’t violate too many of Newton’s Laws”.Alan Kay (1971)Inventor of SmallTalk, the inspiration for Apple Macintosh and other windowing-based computer operating systems
15“There are people succeeding against the odds and producing magnificent results in extremely difficult circumstances. The problem with American education is that we have never found an effective way to help replicate the success, partly because the magic of education is always what happens in the individual classroom between the teacher and the student, supported by the parents, strengthened by the culture of a school that is set overwhelmingly by a gifted principal. I know that. “But there have to be ways to recognize the plain fact that notwithstanding the funding problems, notwithstanding the inequalities, notwithstanding all the problems (in) American education, you can find virtually every problem in our country solved by somebody somewhere in an astonishingly effective fashion if you look at enough schools. So the challenge for us here is to figure out how to replicate that.”Presidential Comments at the White House ceremony honoringBlue Ribbon Schools, May 14, 1993
16If Schools Are To Achieve All They Can, They Will Need… Better information about what works (Best Practices)Tools for monitoring progressTailored assistance in developing and implementing appropriate policyMore skillful communication and more public involvement in reformEducation Commission of the States, 1998
17Sustained School Improvement Requires Visionary Leadership that Provides… BETTER INSTRUCTIONevidence-based, and principle-basedBETTER SUPPORTpartnerships for effective schoolsBETTER DATAevidence of effectiveness
18LIFE: Leadership Initiative for Education Better schools result from better decisions, and better decisions result from better dataSustained improvement in academic achievement requires changes in the school environmentAn ethic of collegiality and cooperation is necessary to bring about meaningful school reformPRINCIPLES
19LIFE: Leadership Initiative for Education COMPONENTSRegular assessment of critical school conditions, attributes, and improvement (e.g. ISQ)Domain-specific Topical Conferences and Implementation LiteratureCollegial Mentoring involving School Planning and Management Teams (SPMTs)Systematic rewards for improvement efforts
21saturated fat, cholesterol, Web of Causation for Myocardial Infarction (Heart Attacks)Taken from Friedman, G. D. (1994).Primer of Epidemiology (5th Ed.).New York: McGraw-Hill, p.4.Natural selection ofmetabolic adaptationto starvationSocialpressuresIndustrialsocietyDietary excesses insaturated fat, cholesterol,calories, saltPersonality &emotionalstressHereditaryfactorsCigarettesmokingLack ofexerciseObesityCoronaryarterydistributionDiabetes orcarbohydrateintoleranceHyperlipidemiaIncreasedcatecholaminesThrombotictendencyHypertensionSignificantcoronaryatherosclerosisDeficiency incollateralcirculationMyocardialsusceptibilityThe authors note that “Despitethe apparent complexity of thisdiagram, it is undoubtedly anoversimplification and willcertainly be modified by further study.” (p. 5).Coronary occlusionMyocardialinfarction
22Web of Causation for Academic Achievement Instruction Academic
23Web of Causation forSocial CompetencePunishmentSocial Competence
25Areas of RiskHome Language “Is English the primary language spoken at home?”Mobility “Have you moved more than once in the past three years?”Peer Associations “Do you generally approve of your child’s closest friends?”Family Bonding “Do you regularly attend community, social, or religious meetings?”Community Affiliation “Do your neighbors generally monitor their children’s activities?”Academic Risk “Do you have a high school diploma/GED?”Economic Risk “Do you have Internet access at home?”
26Relationship between Risk and Academic Achievement (Indicators of School Quality- ISQ)As average school risk increases, average school achievement test scores decline (at each of the four grade levels of testing). Risk is measured by parent perceptions recorded by ISQ. Low risk is defined as 0-2/7 risks; moderate is 3-5/7; and high risk is 6-7/7 risk categories identified.
27ISQ and Academic Achievement The variables measured by ISQ account for more than 80% of the variance of academic achievement scoresEven when “risk” is removed from the equation, the correlations between ISQ variables and achievement are statistically significant
28“For more than a hundred years much complaint has been made of the unmethodological way in which schools are conducted, but it is only within the last thirty that any serious attempt has been made to find a remedy for this state of things. And with what results? Schools remain exactly as they were.”John Amos ComeniusThe Great Didactic1632
29Of Every 100 White Kindergartners: (25-to 29-Year-Olds)Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, , in The Condition of Education 2002.
30Of Every 100 African American Kindergartners: (25-to 29-Year-Olds)Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Survey, , In The Condition of Education 2002.
31Of Every 100 Latino Kindergartners: (25-to 29-Year-Olds)Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, , In The condition of Education 2002.
32Of Every 100 American Indian/Alaskan Native Kindergartners: (24 Year Olds)
33College Graduates by Age 26 Source: Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post Secondary, 1997.
38Samuel W. Tucker Elementary Alexandria, VA 68% African American and Latino53% low-incomeOutperformed 2/3 of VA elem. schools in both reading and math for two years in a row (2001-2).In 2002, out-performed 92% of VA elem. schools in reading and 86% in math.Source: Virginia Department of Education
39West Manor Elementary Atlanta, GA 99% African American.80% low-incomeOutscored 98% of GA elementary schools in 2nd grade reading in 2002.Outperformed 90% of GA elementary schools in 2nd grade math in 2002.Source: The Education Trust, Dispelling the Myth
40St. James Gaillard Elementary Eutawville, SC 99% African American and Latino.87% low-incomeOutperformed 97% of SC elem. schools in 3rd grade math in 2002.Outperformed 82% of SC elem. schools in 4th grade reading in 2002.Source: The Education Trust, Dispelling the Myths Online
41Sycamore Elementary School Kokomo, IN 37% African American and Latino.62% low-incomeIncreased African American 3rd graders meeting state standard in math by 55 percentage points between 2000 and 2002.Closed Black-White 3rd grade reading gap.Source: Indiana Department of Education
42Lincoln Elementary School Mount Vernon, NY 69% African American and Latino49% low-incomeHas outperformed nearly ¾ of NY elem. schools in both math and English for three years in a row.In 2002, outscored 98% of NY elem. schools in math and 99% in English.Source: Ed Trust. Dispelling the Myth Online and New York State Department of Education. Overview of School Performance In English Language Arts, Mathematics, and Science and Analysis of Student Subgroup Performance for Lincoln School. April 10, 2003
43South Scotland Elementary Laurinburg, NC 47% African American and Native American.47% low-incomeOver 80% of both African American and Native American 4th graders met state standard in math in both 2001 and 2002.Closed reading gap between African American and White students in 2003.Source: Data provided by South Scotland Elementary School
44Hambrick Middle School, Aldine, TX 94% African American and Latino (state = 56%)85% low-income (state = 50%)Has performed in the top fifth of all Texas middle schools in both reading and math in both 7th and 8th grades over a 3-year period.
45Prince Edward County High, Farmville VA (715 students – 55% African American and Latino)Sources: Virginia Department of Education Web site,
46Minority and/or poor students in some states outperforming white and/or non-poor students in others.
478th Grade Writing: African Americans in Texas Perform as Well or Better Than Whites in 7 States Source: NCES, National Assessment of Educational Progress
48SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)
49SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)
51What Students Say: Yes, some blame themselves. But they also say... some teachers don’t know their subjects;counselors underestimate our potential;principals dismiss concerns;expectations are wretchedly, boringly low.