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Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) Concept Note for Impact Evaluation Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak.

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Presentation on theme: "Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) Concept Note for Impact Evaluation Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak."— Presentation transcript:

1 Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) Concept Note for Impact Evaluation Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak

2 Key Issues  75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;  High unemployment and poverty rates;  Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how (BDS);  Shortage of access to formal, affordable, suitable credit

3 AREDP  PDO  To Improve employment opportunities and income of rural men and women, and sustainability of targeted local enterprises.  Components  A. Community-led Enterprise Development  B. SME Development  C. Program Management Support

4 Component A  Key Interventions Under Component A  Facilitating the formation of Savings Groups and delivering financial literacy training  Federating Savings Groups into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in order to provide access to credit  Facilitating the formation of Enterprise Groups and delivery of Business Development Services

5 Research questions  What is the impact of facilitating the formation of community-based financial institutions and provision of financial literacy training on access to credit & household incomes? (including attitudes towards credit and lending)  What is the added impact of aggregating entrepreneurs into productive groups and provision of BDS on the following?  Enterprise sustainability/profitability  Access to markets  Employment creation  What is the disaggregated effect of program interventions on women in particular?

6 Indicators Improved financial literacy skills & attitudes towards credit and lending Total amount of loans accessed, number of loans accessed, percentage of loans repaid, Changes in investment Number of household members gainfully employed, income, consumption, assets Household Level Access to markets Percentage in turnover, revenue, and profit Number of new jobs created Number of women owned enterprises Sustainability Enterprise Level Frequency of meetings, duration of savings group Amount saved by group, amount lent by group, number of loans given, percentage of loans recovered intra-group cohesion & trust, inter-group cohesion & trust Group Level Number of VSLAs & producer associations formed Second order effect on public goods Village Level

7 Identification strategy Total CDCs formed by NSPAREDP-eligible CDCs District Randomization for 3-year rollout Year-1 Roll-out Assignment to sub-interventions & control SIT-1 SIT-2 Control

8 Sample Universe 250 CDCs 125 CDCs 2500 SGs 1000 EGs 37,500 HHs 1250 SGs 18,750 HHs SIT-1 SG formation VSLA Federation FinLit EG Formation BDS provision SIT-2 SG formation VSLA Federation FinLit Control

9 Sampling Strategy (Actual #s of HHs and Villages TBD) # CDCs in SIT-1 All CDCs in SIT-2 Control HHs member of SGs HHs member of EGs HHs member in both HHs member in neither

10 Timeline Design & Randomization First round of Data Collection Midline Data Collection Endline Data Collection D&R – 2 months FR – 1 year Midline – 2 years Endline – 5 years

11 Impact evaluation team  AREDP  IE Specialist  M&E field staff (for data coll.)  Head of Office of M&L, AREDP  Program Mgmt Staff  DIME  Field Coordinator  Research Team  Academia  Lead Researcher

12 Estimated budget  AREDP  Data collection  Data entry & cleaning  Data Analysis  DIME  Impact Evaluation  Data Analysis  Field Coord & Technical Assistance  AREDP Budget allocated for M&E – >$1.5million

13 Parting Questions  Measuring social cohesion 

14 Fin Questions & Discussion


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