Presentation on theme: "Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak"— Presentation transcript:
1 Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) Concept Note for Impact EvaluationReshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak
2 Key Issues75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;High unemployment and poverty rates;Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how (BDS);Shortage of access to formal, affordable, suitable credit
3 AREDPPDOTo Improve employment opportunities and income of rural men and women, and sustainability of targeted local enterprises.ComponentsA. Community-led Enterprise DevelopmentB. SME DevelopmentC. Program Management Support
4 Component A Key Interventions Under Component A Facilitating the formation of Savings Groups and delivering financial literacy trainingFederating Savings Groups into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in order to provide access to creditFacilitating the formation of Enterprise Groups and delivery of Business Development Services
5 Research questionsWhat is the impact of facilitating the formation of community-based financial institutions and provision of financial literacy training on access to credit & household incomes? (including attitudes towards credit and lending)What is the added impact of aggregating entrepreneurs into productive groups and provision of BDS on the following?Enterprise sustainability/profitabilityAccess to marketsEmployment creationWhat is the disaggregated effect of program interventions on women in particular?
6 Indicators Household Level Improved financial literacy skills & attitudes towards credit and lendingTotal amount of loans accessed, number of loans accessed, percentage of loans repaid, Changes in investmentNumber of household members gainfully employed, income, consumption, assetsEnterprise LevelAccess to marketsPercentage in turnover, revenue, and profitNumber of new jobs createdNumber of women owned enterprisesSustainabilityGroup LevelFrequency of meetings, duration of savings groupAmount saved by group, amount lent by group, number of loans given, percentage of loans recoveredintra-group cohesion & trust, inter-group cohesion & trustVillage LevelNumber of VSLAs & producer associations formedSecond order effect on public goods
7 Identification strategy Total CDCs formed by NSPAREDP-eligible CDCsDistrict Randomization for 3-year rolloutYear-1 Roll-outAssignment to sub-interventions & controlSIT-1SIT-2Control
9 Sampling Strategy # CDCs in SIT-1 Control All CDCs in SIT-2 HHs member of SGsHHs member of EGsHHs member in bothHHs member in neither# CDCs in SIT-1All CDCs in SIT-2Control(Actual #s of HHs and Villages TBD)
10 Timeline D&R – 2 months FR – 1 year Midline – 2 years Design & RandomizationFirst round of Data CollectionMidline Data CollectionEndline Data CollectionD&R – 2 monthsFR – 1 yearMidline – 2 yearsEndline – 5 years
11 Impact evaluation team AREDPIE SpecialistM&E field staff (for data coll.)Head of Office of M&L, AREDPProgram Mgmt StaffDIMEField CoordinatorResearch TeamAcademiaLead Researcher
12 Estimated budget AREDP Data collection Data entry & cleaning Data AnalysisDIMEImpact EvaluationField Coord & Technical AssistanceAREDP Budget allocated for M&E – >$1.5million
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