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© 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-1 Chapter 10 Intelligent Decision Support.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-1 Chapter 10 Intelligent Decision Support."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-1 Chapter 10 Intelligent Decision Support Systems Turban, Aronson, and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Seventh Edition

2 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-2 Learning Objectives Describe the basic concepts and evolution in artificial intelligence. Understand the importance of knowledge in decision support. Examine the concepts of rule-based expert systems. Learn the architecture of rule-based expert systems. Understand the benefits and limitations of rule based systems for decision support. Identify proper applications of expert systems.

3 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-3 Intelligent Systems in KPN Telecom and Logitech Vignette Problems in maintaining computers with varying hardware and software configurations Rule-based system developed –Captures, manages, automates installation and maintenance Knowledge-based core User-friendly interface Knowledge management module employs natural language processing unit

4 AI Application Decision situation can be so complex that Data and Model management alone my not be sufficient & additional support can be provided by Expert Systems to substitute for human expertise in supplying the necessary knowledge. © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-4 Intelligence: A degree of Learning and reasoning (evidence and conclusion) behavior usually task or problem-solving oriented. التعلم بالملاحظة، السمع بالمحاضرة بالوعظ وبالممارسة وارقى اشكال التعلم، الاستنتاج باعمال التفكير العميق التأملي

5 Fundamentals of Intelligent systems AI is a dynamic, varied, growing field. ES is constructed through Knowledge engineering: 1.Knowledge Acquisition. (collecting) 2.Know. Representation. (organize into knowledge base) 3.Inference (Deduction, Conclusion from evidence) 4.Intelligent& system development (Acquisition, Reasoning, Evidence, Conclusion.) © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-5

6 Knowledge-Based DSCan be provided by a variety of AI tools, ES being the primary one. Managerial Decision Makers are Knowledge Workers and naturally they incorporate knowledge in their DM. In this age, the abundance of knowledge and the enormous numbers of its resources, only a knowledge-base DSS can enhance as a tool the capabilities of D. Makers and Computerized DSS © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-6

7 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-7 The study of human thought process Duplicate it by machine. AI is behavior by machine that, if performed by human being, would be called Intelligent. AI is a study of how to make computers do things at which, at the moment, people are better. Rich & Knight 91

8 Deep Blue & Garry Kasparov The best chess player ever lived. The 1 st time a computer demonstrated intelligence in an are required human intelligence. IBM RS/6000 SP Machine capable of: 1.Examining 200 million moves per second billion positions in single move per 3 Min. © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-8 The victory of the computer does not imply that the computer intelligence will prevail, it dose indicate the potential of AI.

9 Abilities as signs of Intelligence –Learning or understanding from experience. –Interpreting, making sense out of ambiguities. –Rapid response to varying situations. –Applying reasoning to problem-solving. –Manipulating environment by applying knowledge. –Thinking and reasoning. –Dealing with Perplexing and puzzling situation. © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-9

10 A computer can be considered smart only when a human interviewer conversing with unseen human being and unseen computer can not determine which is which. © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-10

11 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Artificial Intelligence Characteristics focusing on DM and problem solving Symbolic processing –Computers process numerically, people think symbolically –Computers follow algorithms Step by step –Humans are heuristic Rule of thumb Gut feelings Intuitive Heuristics –Symbols combined with rule of thumb processing. –one doesnt have to rethink completely what to do every time a similar problem is encountered Inference –Applies heuristics to infer from facts Machine learning –Mechanical learning –Inductive learning –Artificial neural networks –Genetic algorithms

12 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Development of Artificial Intelligence Primitive solutions Development of general purpose methods Applications targeted at specific domain –Expert systems Advanced problem- solving –Integration of multiple techniques –Multiple domains

13 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Artificial Intelligence Concepts Expert systems –Human knowledge stored on machine for use in problem- solving Natural language processing –Allows user to use native language instead of English Speech recognition –Computer understanding spoken language Sensory systems –Vision, tactile, and signal processing systems Robotics –Sensory systems combine with programmable electromechanical device to perform manual labor

14 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Artificial Intelligence Concepts Vision and scene recognition –Computer intelligence applied to digital information from machine Neural computing –Mathematical models simulating functional human brain Intelligent computer-aided instruction –Machines used to tutor humans Intelligent tutoring systems Game playing –Investigation of new strategies combined with heuristics

15 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Artificial Intelligence Concepts Language translation –Programs that translate sentences from one language to another without human interaction Fuzzy logic –Extends logic from Boolean true/false to allow for partial truths –Imprecise reasoning –Inexact knowledge Genetic algorithms –Computers simulate natural evolution to identify patterns in sets of data Intelligent agents –Computer programs that automatically conduct tasks

16 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Experts Experts –Have special knowledge, judgment, and experience –Can apply these to solve problems Higher performance level than average person Relative Faster solutions Recognize patterns Expertise –Task specific knowledge of experts Acquired from reading, training, practice

17 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Expert Systems Features Expertise –Capable of making expert level decisions Symbolic reasoning –Knowledge represented symbolically –Reasoning mechanism symbolic Deep knowledge –Knowledge base contains complex knowledge Self-knowledge –Able to examine own reasoning –Explain why conclusion reached

18 Difference s, Human Expert & Expert System Advantages & Short-Comings FeatureHuman ExpertExpert System Mortalityyesno Knowledge transferHardEasy Knowledge DocumentationHardEasy Decision ConsistencyLowHigh Unit Usage CostHighLow CreativityHighLow AdaptabilityHighLow Knowledge ScopeBroadNarrow Knowledge TypeCommon sense and Technical Technical Knowledge ContentExperienceSymbols © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-18

19 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Applications of Expert Systems DENDRAL project –Applied knowledge or rule-based reasoning commands –Deduced likely molecular structure of compounds MYCIN –Rule-based system for diagnosing bacterial infections XCON –Rule-based system to determine optimal systems configuration Credit analysis –Ruled-based systems for commercial lenders Pension fund adviser –Knowledge-based system analyzing impact of regulation and conformance requirements on fund status

20 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Applications Finance –Insurance evaluation, credit analysis, tax planning, financial planning and reporting, performance evaluation Data processing –Systems planning, equipment maintenance, vendor evaluation, network management Marketing –Customer-relationship management, market analysis, product planning Human resources –HR planning, performance evaluation, scheduling, pension management, legal advising Manufacturing –Production planning, quality management, product design, plant site selection, equipment maintenance and repair

21 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Environments, Ex Sys Structure 1- Consultation (runtime) 2- Development

22 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Major Components of Expert Systems Major components –Knowledge base Facts Special heuristics to direct use of knowledge –Inference engine Brain Control structure Rule interpreter –User interface Language processor

23 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Additional Components of Expert Systems Additional components 1.Knowledge acquisition subsystem Accumulates, transfers, and transforms expertise to computer 2.Workplace Blackboard Area of working memory Decisions –Plan, agenda, solution 3.Justifier Explanation subsystem –Traces responsibility for conclusions 4.Knowledge refinement system Analyzes knowledge and use for learning and improvements

24 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang How Ex Sys work 1- Knowledge Presentation Production rules –IF-THEN rules combine with conditions to produce conclusions –Easy to understand –New rules easily added –Uncertainty Semantic networks Logic statements

25 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Inference Engine Forward chaining –Looks for the IF part of rule first –Selects path based upon meeting all of the IF requirements Backward chaining –Starts from conclusion and hypothesizes that it is true –Identifies IF conditions and tests their veracity –If they are all true, it accepts conclusion –If they fail, then discards conclusion

26 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-26

27 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang General Problems Suitable for Expert Systems Interpretation systems –Surveillance, image analysis, signal interpretation Prediction systems –Weather forecasting, traffic predictions, demographics Diagnostic systems –Medical, mechanical, electronic, software diagnosis Design systems –Circuit layouts, building design, plant layout Planning systems –Project management, routing, communications, financial plans

28 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang General Problems Suitable for Expert Systems Monitoring systems –Air traffic control, fiscal management tasks Debugging systems –Mechanical and software Repair systems –Incorporate debugging, planning, and execution capabilities Instruction systems –Identify weaknesses in knowledge and appropriate remedies Control systems –Life support, artificial environment

29 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang 10-29

30 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Benefits of Expert Systems Increased outputs Increased productivity Decreased decision-making time Increased process and product quality Reduced downtime Capture of scarce expertise Flexibility Ease of complex equipment operation Elimination of expensive monitoring equipment Operation in hazardous environments Access to knowledge and help desks

31 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Benefits of Expert Systems Ability to work with incomplete, imprecise, uncertain data Provides training Enhanced problem solving and decision-making Rapid feedback Facilitate communications Reliable decision quality Ability to solve complex problems Ease of knowledge transfer to remote locations Provides intelligent capabilities to other information systems

32 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Limitations Knowledge not always readily available Difficult to extract expertise from humans –Approaches vary –Natural cognitive limitations –Vocabulary limited –Wrong recommendations Lack of end-user trust Knowledge subject to biases Systems may not be able to arrive at conclusions

33 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Success Factors Management champion User involvement Training Expertise from cooperative experts Qualitative, not quantitative, problem User-friendly interface Experts level of knowledge must be high

34 © 2005 Prentice Hall, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7th Edition, Turban, Aronson, and Liang Types of Expert Systems Rule-based Systems –Knowledge represented by series of rules Frame-based Systems –Knowledge represented by frames Hybrid Systems –Several approaches are combined, usually rules and frames Model-based Systems –Models simulate structure and functions of systems Off-the-shelf Systems –Ready made packages for general use Custom-made Systems –Meet specific need Real-time Systems –Strict limits set on system response times


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