Integration Scorecard For The Ten EU Legislation in Place Mostly Privatized Market Economies Adequate Governance and Rule of Law Low Labor Costs Lower Productivity Really Bad Enforcement
South Eastern Europe Romania & Bulgaria - 2007 Balkan Countries – 2010? Turkey – 2015? Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, Moldova
Elements of an Opportunity I Country Population (Million) GDP/Capita EU Relative Poland 38 40% Czech Republic 10 60% Hungary 10 57% Slovakia 5 47% Baltics 7 38% Slovenia 2 75% Cyprus & Malta 1 75%
Elements of an Opportunity II Country GDP Growth 2001–2005 ave. GDP Catchup 20 year rate Poland 3.7% 7.6% Czech Republic 3.0% 5.4% Hungary 3.0% 5.4% Slovakia 4.5% 5.8 % Baltics 6.0% 7.8% Slovenia 3.0% 4.0% Cyprus & Malta 2.3% 4.0%
Markets and Opportunities Poland - Market Size Matters, But Many Mistakes. Hungary and Estonia – Most Likely to Succeed in EU Markets. Slovenia and Slovakia - On Path to Sustained Integration. Ukraine - The EU Frontier in 2004. Russia - Important Consumer Market
Why Now? Big Push in 2004 for Some. EU Harmonization Makes Integration Pay for Some. Change in Business Models Imperative
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