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Conflict Analysis Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Monday, February 09, 2004.

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Presentation on theme: "Conflict Analysis Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Monday, February 09, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 Conflict Analysis Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Monday, February 09, 2004

2 Objectives Turn conflict into win-win situations Turn conflict into win-win situations Learn how to analyze conflict Learn how to analyze conflict Learn how to use the analysis for better insights into the conflict Learn how to use the analysis for better insights into the conflict Not just model building & formulas but also a process

3 Who Is the Decision Maker? Several constituencies Several constituencies –e.g. department heads meeting to resolve conflict on budget Two people Two people –e.g. negotiations between a clinician and a manager at an HMO On person On person –Role playing of an objective outsider Analyst meets with each party one on one

4 Premises People have cognitive biases People have cognitive biases When two parties negotiate some conflict is due to miscommunications When two parties negotiate some conflict is due to miscommunications A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken into components A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken into components Individuals can specify their values and prioritize them Individuals can specify their values and prioritize them The analyst can provide reduce conflict due to miscommunication, provide insight into the thinking of each party and identify solutions overlooked by both parties The analyst can provide reduce conflict due to miscommunication, provide insight into the thinking of each party and identify solutions overlooked by both parties

5 A Conflict Analyzed Is a Conflict Understood Prevent escalation of conflict

6 Analysis Forces Rationality into Conflict Increase self insight

7 Steps in Analysis of Conflict StepPhaseAction 1 Understand the problem Hold informal interviews with people informed about the conflict. 2Identify constituencies and their spokespeople. 3Analyze assumptions. 4 Structure the problem Perform an in-depth interview with one or more objective outsiders. 5In separate sessions with each constituency, identify issues, and levels of resolution. 6Assess importance of issues & value of resolution levels 7 Explore the solution Form and score treaties 8Analyze the treaties 9Develop a strategy of negotiation 10Present results to all constituents.

8 1. Understand the problem Identifying constituencies Identifying constituencies –Not just vocal groups –Representation Identifying spokespeople Identifying spokespeople –Maybe role playing Identifying assumptions Identifying assumptions Get the catchwords Get the catchwords

9 1. Understand the problem Identifying constituencies Identifying constituencies –Not just vocal groups –Representation Identifying spokespeople Identifying spokespeople –Maybe role playing Identifying assumptions Identifying assumptions Get the catchwords Get the catchwords

10 1. Understand the problem Identifying constituencies Identifying constituencies –Not just vocal groups –Representation Identifying spokespeople Identifying spokespeople –Maybe role playing Analyzing assumptions Analyzing assumptions

11 Example Assumptions

12 2. Structure the Problem Identify issues Identify issues –What do we have control over that can be changed? Identify levels of resolution Identify levels of resolution –What is this side’s position on the issue? –What resolutions might it accept? –What resolutions are totally unacceptable? –Why are the levels considered in this way?

13 2. Structure the Problem Identify issues Identify issues –What do we have control over that can be changed? Identify levels of resolution Identify levels of resolution –What is this side’s position on the issue? –What resolutions might it accept? –What resolutions are totally unacceptable? –Why are the levels considered in this way?

14 Interviews Which components of family planning should be available to minors and under what conditions. Which components of family planning should be available to minors and under what conditions. –Education –Counseling –Services

15 Heart of the Conflict Should values and morals be taught when delivering family planning services? Should values and morals be taught when delivering family planning services? Should counseling of adolescents start from the position that premarital sex among adolescents is bad? Should counseling of adolescents start from the position that premarital sex among adolescents is bad? Which is more important, allowing easy access to services or having services controlled by organizations with what are considered high morals? Which is more important, allowing easy access to services or having services controlled by organizations with what are considered high morals? What are the optimum technical qualifications of the personnel? What are the optimum technical qualifications of the personnel? Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of family planning services to adolescents? Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of family planning services to adolescents?

16 Example Issues & Resolutions

17 3. Explore Solutions Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Create and score treaties Create and score treaties –Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue Perform optimal analysis Perform optimal analysis –Focus on Pareto optimal treaties –Logroll Organize process of negotiations Organize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflict Deescalate the conflict

18 Value Models

19 Value Models Continued

20 3. Explore Solutions Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Create and score treaties Create and score treaties –Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue Perform optimal analysis Perform optimal analysis –Focus on Pareto optimal treaties –Logroll Organize process of negotiations Organize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflict Deescalate the conflict

21 Sample Treaty A2Programs stress abstinence. B2Require programs to strengthen the family C2Adolescent parents must be notified D2All providers must have medical qualifications. E2Educational institutions will carry out programs. F2State governments must regulate programs. Try It

22 Scoring of a Treaty

23 Sample Treaty Scored A2Programs stress abstinence. (.14*30) B2Require programs to strengthen the family (.20 *30) C2Adolescent parents must be notified (.25* 80) D2All providers must have medical qualifications (.11*60) E2Educational institutions will carry out programs (.23*60) F2State governments must regulate programs (.07*40) Total value = 53.4

24 Orthogonal Design for Treaties with Two Issues Issue AIssue B Treaty 1Best Treaty 2BestWorst Treaty 3Best Treaty 4BestWorst Treaty 5WorstBest Treaty 6Worst Treaty 7WorstBest Treaty 8Worst

25 Orthogonal Design for Treaties for Three Issues Issue AIssue BIssue C Treaty 1Best Treaty 2Best Worst Treaty 3Best Treaty 4Best Worst Treaty 5BestWorstBest Treaty 6BestWorst Treaty 7BestWorstBest Treaty 8BestWorst Treaty 9WorstBest Treaty 10WorstBestWorst Treaty 11WorstBest Treaty 12WorstBestWorst Treaty 13Worst Best Treaty 14Worst Treaty 15Worst Best Treaty 16Worst

26 3. Explore Solutions Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Create and score treaties Create and score treaties –Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue Perform optimal analysis Perform optimal analysis –Focus on Pareto optimal treaties –Logroll Organize process of negotiations Organize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflict Deescalate the conflict

27 Pareto Optimal Points inside the plot are different treaties Pareto Optimal

28 Search for Pareto Optimal Treaties Use the information to improve one constituents situation without deteriorating the other

29 Example of Negotiating Every Issue

30 Example of Logrolling

31 3. Explore Solutions Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issue Create and score treaties Create and score treaties –Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue Perform optimal analysis Perform optimal analysis –Focus on Pareto optimal treaties –Logroll Organize process of negotiations Organize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflict Deescalate the conflict

32 Organize Process of Negotiation

33 De-escalate the conflict Prevent the parties from negotiating on the overall treaty until some agreements have been reached Prevent the parties from negotiating on the overall treaty until some agreements have been reached Discuss issues in a sequence that minimizes frustration Discuss issues in a sequence that minimizes frustration Divide the conflict into component issues increase the probability of finding a few areas of agreement Divide the conflict into component issues increase the probability of finding a few areas of agreement

34 Summary


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