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HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston,

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Presentation on theme: "HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston,"— Presentation transcript:

1 HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com

2 Using GIS to determine if there are more hurricanes. Conclusion: Since satellite use started after 1960, more hurricanes must be the result of satellites and not global warming. 1900-1959 Hurricanes East of 45W 1960-2006 Hurricanes East of 45W

3 Category 5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

4 Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 28 Category Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 882 mbs Highest maximum sustained winds - Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots Most Category Hurricanes per season 2005 - Four- Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma 1961 - Two – Carla and Hattie 1960 – Two – Donna and Ethel www.wxresearch.com/outlook

5 SOLAR CYCLES 11.1 Year Cycle: Sun spot number at a minimum to a sun spot number at a maximum and back to a minimum 22.2 Year Cycle: Sun spots start at the minimum at opposite pole. 88.7 Year Gleissberg Cycle 178.7 Year Jose Cycle - Includes 16 of the Suns orbits around the center of gravity of the solar systems or solar cycles. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

6 SOLAR CYCLE Starts with the Sunspot Minimum – when few sunspots are observed on the sun. The number of observed sunspots increases until it reaches the sunspot maximum. Then the number of sunspots decrease until the sunspot minimum starts the next cycle. There are on average 11.1 years in each cycle. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

7 In 1996, near the last solar minimum, the Sun is nearly featureless. By 1999, approaching maximum, it is dotted by sunspots and fiery hot gas trapped in magnetic loops. Solar max has also been tied to a 2 percent increase in clouds over much of the United States. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

8 Sunspot Numbers from 1745 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

9 ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX The OCSI was developed in the mid 80s to predict which section of the United States Coast had the highest probability of experiencing landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane in a particular year. The index was developed using the sun spot cycle as an indication of the orbit of the sun around the center of the solar system and corresponds to the phases in the suns orbit. This leads to the premise is that the sunspot cycle is caused by orbital influences. Large scale circulation patterns of the earth are also subjected to these orbital influences which would then influence the tracks of cyclones. The OCSI index was developed using the year of the sunspot minimum as Phase 1 of the index.

10 ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX The index was created by sorting the Years from 1878 to 1985 by the phase of the solar cycle with the year of the sunspot minimum being Phase 1, the year after the sunspot minimum being Phase 2, etc. Those years are: 1878, 1889, 1901, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008? The tracks of the tropical storms and hurricanes in these years were compared and the number of years a particular section of the coast experienced a landfall was tallied to give the percent chance of landfall. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

11 Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [ OCSI] www.wxresearch.com/outlook

12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

13 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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17 WRC GRAY Updated Gray Fcst Number of Named Storms: 11 13 15 Number of Storm Days: 8360 80 Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 5 7 8 Number of Hurricane Days: 2430 40 US Landfalls: 4 Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50% 3 4 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Coast with the highest risk of landfall is Georgia to North Carolina with 90% Louisiana to Alabama has 60% chance of a landfall www.wxresearch.com/outlook

18 PHASE YearHighest 101985TX 70% W FL 70% Kate 11986GA/NC 90% Charley 21987LA/AL – 70% 31988W. FL 90% Keith 41989LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Allison 51990W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60% Marco 61991W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Fabian 71992W FL 80% www.wxresearch.com/outlook

19 PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 81993NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Emily 91994W FL 70% Alberto Beryl Gordon 101995TX 70% W FL 70% Dean Allison Erin Opal 11996GA-NC 90% Arthur Bertha Fran 21997LA-AL 70% Danny 31998W FL (90%) Earl Mitch 41999LA-AL 90% WFL 70% Harvey Irene Floyd 52000W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Gordon Gordon Helene

20 PHASEYEAR HIGHEST 62001W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Gabrielle Allison 72002W FL 80% Hanna 82003NE US 70% GA-NC 70%* Isabel Isabel 92004W FL 70% Bonnie Charley Frances Ivan 102005TX 70% W FL 70% Rita Dennis Wilma 112006LA/AL 80% 122007TX 66% LA-AL 66% WFL 66% Humberto Barry www.wxresearch.com/outlook

21 23 Forecast Years - 1985 - 2007 20 out of the 23 years verified giving an accuracy rate of is 86.96% 3 out of the 23 years cyclones did not make landfall along the coast with the highest risk. [1987, 1992 and 2006] During these three years cyclones did make landfall in one of the coast with the second highest probability. 1987 WFL 60% - Floyd 1992 LA-AL 60% - Andrew 2006 GA/NC 66% - Alberto/Ernesto www.wxresearch.com/outlook

22 Other Cycles Used for Verification PHASEYEARHIGHEST RISK 11856GA/NC 90%- Strm#3 21857LA/AL - 70% 31858W. FL 90%-Strm#3 41859LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Strm#5 51860W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60% Strm#1 Strm#1/4/6 61861W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Strm#6 Strm#2 71862W FL 80% 8 1863NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Strm#6 Strm#6 91864W FL 70% 101865TX 70% W FL 70% Strm#2/4 Strm#7 111866LA-AL 75%

23 PHASEYEARHIGHEST 11867GA/NC 90%- Strm#1 21868LA/AL - 70%- Strm#1 31869W. FL 90% 41870LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Strm#1 Strm#6/9 51871W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60% Strm#6/7 Strm#3 Strm#7 61872W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Strm#5 Strm#1 71873W FL 80% - Strm#3/4/5 81874NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Strm#6 Strm#6 91875W FL 70% -Strm#3 101876TX 70% W FL 70% Strm#5 111877LA-AL 75%- Strm#14 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

24 Forecast Verification Summary: 1856-1866Missed 4 out of the 11 years 63.64% 1867-1877Missed 1 out of the 11 years 90.9% 1986-1995 Missed 2 out of the 10 years 80% 1996-2007Missed 1 out of the 12 years91.67% www.wxresearch.com/outlook

25 WRC then used the OCSI to make a secondary predications: Number of tropical cyclones Number of hurricanes Number of hurricane days Number of storm days To compare the OCSI forecast with Colorado State Professor Gray and Climatology. The following graph indicates the over or under forecast of number of cyclones [tropical storms and hurricanes] each year. If the value is 0 then the forecast was correct. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 cyclone. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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27 The following graph indicates the error + or – 1 of the forecast for the number of hurricanes each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 hurricane. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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29 The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of storm days +_ or – 10 days each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 10 storm days. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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31 The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of hurricane days + or – 5 days each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 5 hurricane days. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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33 Summary of the number of years since 1984 that the forecast verified within +- range indicated. WRC OCSIClimateCo. State Gray # of Years the forecasts of the number of cyclones was w/in +- 1 10 3 7 # of Years the forecasts of the number of hurricanes was w/in +-1 11 7 9 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

34 Summary of the number of years since 1984 the forecast of storm days and hurricane days verified within the +- range indicated. WRC OCSIClimateCo. State Gray # of Years the forecasts of the number of hurricane days was w/in +- 5 9 5 6 # of Years the forecasts of the number of storm days was w/in +-10 11 6 7 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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44 Katrina as a Cat 5 on Hurricane Alicias track Highest Winds on the right of the track

45 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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47 As a hurricane makes landfall and moves inland, the sustained winds start to weaken as the winds at the surface interact with the rough surface. So the winds in the hurricane that you would see in a hurricane over water would be lower as the storm moves inland. The hurricane also is weakening because it is moving away from the warm water that allows it to maintain its intensity. Maximum Sustained 1 minute sustained wind. Galveston Coast Hobby Airport Downtown Houston Bush Airport 38 mph 28 mph 25 mph 19 mph 50 mph 38 mph 33 mph 25 mph 58 mph 43 mph 38 mph 29 mph 76 mph 57 mph 49 mph 38 mph 99 mph 74 mph 64 mph 50 mph 114 mph 86 mph 74 mph 58 mph 148 mph 111 mph 96 mph 74 mph www.wxresearch.com/outlook

48 Weather Research Center Houston, Texas www.wxresearch.com wrc@wxresearch.org


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