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Forecast Review— Burlington, Vermont Joshua Gooch, Michael Page, Heather Waldman METEO 415 November 13, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecast Review— Burlington, Vermont Joshua Gooch, Michael Page, Heather Waldman METEO 415 November 13, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecast Review— Burlington, Vermont Joshua Gooch, Michael Page, Heather Waldman METEO 415 November 13, 2012

2 Burlington, Vermont MapFacts Size: 15.5 square miles City: 42,417 Metro: 211,261 Nickname: Queen City Home of University of Vermont

3 Observations KBTV Z 36010KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3008 AO2 SLP191 CIG OVC180 T KBTV Z 34010KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3008 AO2 SLP190 CIG OVC190 T KBTV Z 35010KT 10SM SCT090 BKN120 01/M06 A3007 AO2 SLP189 CIG OVC200 T KBTV Z 36008KT 10SM SCT085 OVC120 02/M07 A3007 AO2 SLP188 T KBTV Z 36008KT 10SM SCT085 BKN120 03/M07 A3009 AO2 SLP194 T KBTV Z 01009KT 10SM BKN085 BKN110 02/M06 A3010 AO2 SLP196 T KBTV Z 36006KT 10SM BKN085 BKN110 02/M07 A3012 AO2 SLP204 T

4 Observations KBTV Z 36010KT 10SM SCT065 BKN120 M01/M06 A3000 AO2 SLP163 T KBTV Z 36013KT 10SM SCT120 M02/M07 A3000 AO2 SLP162 T KBTV Z 35012KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP158 T KBTV Z 35014KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP155 T KBTV Z 35011KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP155 T KBTV Z 35013KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2999 AO2 SLP159 T KBTV Z 35010KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2999 AO2 SLP160 T KBTV Z 35008KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A3000 AO2 SLP161 T KBTV Z 35007KT 10SM CLR 00/M07 A3001 AO2 SLP166 T KBTV Z 34005KT 10SM CLR M01/M06 A3002 AO2 SLP170 T KBTV Z 35010KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3004 AO2 SLP176 CIG OVC160 T KBTV Z 36010KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3006 AO2 SLP182 CIG OVC160 T KBTV Z 35008KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3007 AO2 SLP187 CIG OVC160 T

5 Observations KBTV Z 36012G20KT 10SM OVC024 03/M03 A2998 AO2 SLP156 T KBTV Z 36010G20KT 10SM OVC024 03/M02 A2997 AO2 SLP152 T KBTV Z 01012KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2995 AO2 SLP147 T KBTV Z 35013G21KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2995 AO2 SLP146 T KBTV Z 36012G19KT 10SM OVC024 03/M02 A2994 AO2 SLP143 T KBTV Z 35010KT 10SM OVC024 03/M03 A2994 AO2 SLP142 T KBTV Z 34014G22KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2994 AO2 SLP144 T KBTV Z 01013KT 10SM BKN024 BKN049 BKN060 03/M04 A2996 AO2 SLP149 T KBTV Z 36009KT 10SM BKN024 BKN049 BKN060 03/M04 A2996 AO2 KBTV Z 36011G19KT 10SM FEW030 BKN048 BKN060 01/M04 A2998 AO2 SLP156 T KBTV Z 36008KT 10SM FEW030 BKN065 BKN110 01/M05 A2999 AO2 SLP159 T KBTV Z 35012G19KT 10SM FEW020 BKN065 BKN090 M01/M06 A3000 AO2 SLP163 T

6 12z7 November

7 15z SREF Guidance— for 12z 8 November

8 18z7 November

9 2z8 November

10 15z8 November

11 KBTV Verifications

12 Survey Scores

13 Career Scores

14 Up Close & Personal…with Sean

15 Lessons Learned North/Northwest wind off of nearby Lake Champlain likely kept overnight lows above MOS Proximity to water can often lead to higher than expected gusts Good agreement from operational and ensembles on back-edge of precipitation leads to higher forecast confidence

16 Forecast Review— Nantucket, Massachusetts

17 Nantucket, Massachusetts MapFacts Size: square miles Island (Full Time): 10,172 Island (Summer): 56,000 Settled: 1641 No traffic lights!

18 Observations KACK Z AUTO 02036G50KT 3SM BR BKN011 BKN014 OVC018 07/06 A2950 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 SLP989 P T TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03030G50KT 3SM BR BKN009 OVC016 07/06 A2951 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0003 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03034G49KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN009 OVC014 07/06 A2952 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0002 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03032G52KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC011 07/06 A2952 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0000 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03036G50KT 3SM -RA BR OVC011 07/06 A2953 AO2 PK WND 03050/0153 RAB25 SLP001 P0004 T TSNO KACK Z 03039G48KT 3SM BR BKN011 OVC019 07/06 A2955 AO2 PK WND 04049/0059 P0001 KACK Z 03033G49KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN011 OVC017 07/06 A2956 AO2 PK WND 04049/0059 P0001 KACK Z 03035G48KT 3SM BR BKN013 OVC018 07/05 A2957 AO2 PK WND 04052/0023 RAE27 SLP013 P0003 T KACK Z 03032G47KT 4SM BR OVC013 06/05 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03050/0006 RAE04 P0000 KACK Z 03037G50KT 5SM BR OVC015 06/04 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03050/0003 RAE04 P0000 KACK Z 03034G47KT 5SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC020 06/04 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03053/2341 RAB24 SLP020 P T

19 Observations KACK Z AUTO 02040G57KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC007 A2931 AO2 PK WND 02057/0752 SLP927 P0014 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02035G53KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC007 A2932 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0012 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02039G53KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC009 A2933 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0010 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02038G52KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC012 A2934 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0005 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02039G57KT 2SM -SN OVC009 A2936 AO2 PK WND 03057/0651 SLP944 P0016 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02038G53KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC009 A2936 AO2 PK WND 03053/0642 P0013 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02036G47KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN009 OVC013 A2938 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0005 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02036G50KT 4SM -SN BKN011 OVC014 A2940 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0002 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03031G52KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC011 A2940 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0001 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03039G52KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC014 A2940 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 UPB15E39SNE11B20E35B39 SLP957 P TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03038G59KT 4SM -SN BKN011 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 CIG 007V014 P0000 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02036G59KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN011 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 P0000 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03041G50KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 RAE29SNB17 SLP968 P TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03036G50KT 5SM -SN BKN009 BKN016 OVC022 A2945 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 RAE29SNB17 P0017 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03036G55KT 2SM RA BR BKN009 OVC017 08/07 A2948 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 P0008 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03036G52KT 3SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC015 08/07 A2948 AO2 PK WND 03053/0325 RAB13E20B41 SLP981 P0003 T TSNO KACK Z AUTO 03038G51KT 3SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC017 08/07 A2947 AO2 PK WND 03053/0325 RAB13E20B41 P0001 TSNO

20 Observations KACK Z 05018G26KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 06032/1506 SLP880 P0008 T KACK Z 05021G30KT 1 3/4SM R24/4000VP6000FT +RA BR OVC008 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 06032/1506 P0006 KACK Z 05022G31KT 5SM -RA BR BKN011 OVC026 13/12 A2916 AO2 PK WND 06034/1438 RAE32B53 SLP876 P T KACK Z 03019G34KT 6SM -RA BR OVC013 13/12 A2916 AO2 PK WND 01034/1345 SLP876 P0003 T KACK Z 02023KT 6SM -RA BR BKN019 OVC024 13/12 A2920 AO2 PK WND 02031/1154 RAB1154 SLP887 P0002 T KACK Z 01025G34KT 6SM BR FEW007 SCT011 OVC019 12/11 A2922 AO2 PK WND 01046/1102 RAB1055E51 SLP896 P T KACK Z 02028G34KT 6SM BR SCT007 BKN016 OVC021 12/11 A2922 AO2 PK WND 01046/1102 RAB1055E47 P0003 KACK Z AUTO 01034G49KT 5SM BR BKN007 OVC013 10/09 A2923 AO2 PK WND 01051/1004 RAB10E32 SLP899 P0026 T TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02039G47KT 2SM R24/5000VP6000FT -RA BR OVC007 10/09 A2925 AO2 PK WND 01051/1004 RAB10 P0024 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02035G51KT 1 1/4SM R24/5500VP6000FT BR OVC007 10/09 A2926 AO2 PK WND 03051/0958 P0005 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02040G50KT 2SM BR OVC007 10/09 A2926 AO2 PK WND 02055/0903 RAE41 SLP909 P0023 T TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02034G50KT 3SM BR OVC007 09/09 A2927 AO2 PK WND 02055/0903 RAE41 P0021 TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02039G51KT 2SM -RA BR OVC007 09/09 A2929 AO2 PK WND 01056/0823 RAB46SNE09 SLP917 P T TSNO KACK Z AUTO 02041G53KT 1 1/4SM R24/5500VP6000FT BR OVC007 09/08 A2929 AO2 PK WND 02054/0756 SNE09 P0009 TSNO

21 Observations KACK Z AUTO 34029G43KT 10SM OVC008 09/08 A2949 AO2 PK WND 34043/2352 RAE49 CIG 007V012 SLP986 P T TSNO KACK Z 33027G41KT 9SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC020 09/08 A2945 AO2 PK WND 33043/2233 RAB51 CIG 007V011 SLP971 P0000 T KACK Z 33025G34KT 10SM SCT008 OVC012 09/08 A2940 AO2 PK WND 33034/2202 KACK Z 33024G33KT 10SM BKN008 OVC012 10/08 A2940 AO2 PK WND 32033/2154 CIG 006V012 KACK Z 33024G32KT 10SM OVC012 10/09 A2939 AO2 PK WND 34035/2121 RAB16E20 SLP954 P0001 T KACK Z 33024G30KT 10SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC019 10/09 A2939 AO2 PK WND 34035/2121 RAB16E20 P0001 KACK Z 36025G39KT 10SM BKN013 BKN024 11/08 A2934 AO2 PK WND 35043/2033 SLP T KACK Z 36026G41KT 10SM BKN013 OVC020 11/08 A2928 AO2 PK WND 36041/1951 RAE07B27E37 SLP916 P0000 T KACK Z 36028G41KT 9SM BKN015 OVC023 10/08 A2928 AO2 PK WND 01041/1944 RAE07B27E37 P0000 KACK Z 01026G34KT 4SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC012 11/09 A2923 AO2 PK WND 02035/1835 CIG 006V010 SLP897 P0000 T KACK Z 01021G29KT 5SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC039 12/11 A2918 AO2 PK WND 03032/1742 SLP882 P T KACK Z 04021G32KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 BKN011 OVC018 12/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 03032/1703 P0000 KACK Z 04022G30KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN006 BKN011 OVC018 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 04030/1655 P0000 KACK Z 03022G31KT 3SM -RA BR SCT006 SCT011 OVC018 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 03031/1645 SLP878 P0002 T

22 2z8 November

23 12z8 November

24 18z GFS Guidance— for 12z 8 November

25 13z8 November

26 23z8 November

27 Damage

28 KACK Verifications

29 Career Scores

30 Up Close and Personal…with Billy

31 Lessons Learned Island locations stay windy, especially with storm nearby Proximity to center of the storm will impact wind direction Temperatures likely to warm as coastal storm nears


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