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Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster DISCUSSION October 15, 2008 Presented by Patrick O’Neil Brady Smith.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster DISCUSSION October 15, 2008 Presented by Patrick O’Neil Brady Smith."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Analysis of a Natural Disaster DISCUSSION October 15, 2008 Presented by Patrick O’Neil Brady Smith

2 Analysis Components Vulnerability Assessment Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event Effects of current and future mitigation strategies Package analysis template (model) for future use and transferability

3 Vulnerability Assessment Define geographic study area Primary (coastal planning area) and Secondary (rest of county) Number of Businesses Property Appraiser (value) County Licenses ES-202 data Number of Residences Property Appraiser Census Single-family Multi-family Linkage and distribution of businesses Some businesses will be impacted by others being out of business Survival of some businesses will be dependent upon their market being there

4 Impact Analysis of a Catastrophic Event Moderate (Cat 3) & high end (Cat 5) Net impacts Economic activity lost (costs) Lost income and sales Tourism Business closures and lost production Economic activity generated (gains) Reconstruction Utilities, contractors, debris removal Tax collection impacts Property taxes Sales taxes Recovery cycle Short run – 1 year Medium – 3 year Long-term – 5 to 7 years

5 Avera’s Impact Hypothesis Boom Bust

6 Effects of current and future mitigation strategies Planning Construction mitigation Hardening, elevation, “relocation of activities” Business Preparedness Mitigation Continuity Recovery State and Federal Assistance Implementation of mitigation measures to reduce future impacts Mitigation Return on Investment (ROI)

7 Future Use and Transferability Package analysis template (model) for future use Work with other Florida Regional Planning Councils to develop models based on the template and using their localized datasets

8 Discussion Patrick O’Neil, MBA Senior Planner ext. 31 Brady Smith Senior Planner ext. 42 Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (727) 570 – 5151 (727)


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