1. Demand Response Forecasting, Measurement & Verification Methods/Challenges/Considerations National Town Meeting on Demand Response Washington, DC - June 2 & 3, 2008 Mark Williamson Manager, Load Research, DTE Energy

2. 2 What is a Baseline? Baseline – The amount of energy the customer would have consumed absent request to reduce

3. 3 Forecasting & Measurement Homogenous Customer Classes DR Types Direct Load Control, CPP Can be stratified to reduce M & V costs Very little diversity within customer group Typically Residential & Small Commercial Class CharacteristicsLikely Methods Highly Diverse Customers DR Types Customer Controlled Interrupt, CPP Generally requires per customer analysis Most often interval metered Typically Large C & I customers Sampling Regression Engineering Models By Class Baseline (CBL) estimate Average of Days Interval Metering By Customer

4. 4 Measurement of Actual DR Event – Direct Load Control w/Samples

5. 5 Not All Loads Are Alike – Key Considerations to Baselines Manufacturing, 3 Shift, or non-weather sensitive High rise office building, monitored HVAC, weather sensitive One Size Does Not Fit All Several factors require consideration when estimating or measuring Demand Response impacts which may dictate utilizing multiple methods. Weather vs. Non-Weather sensitive customers/classes Type of customer (number of shifts, hours or operation) Seasonality Historical data Day of event adjustment method Geographic region Time Impact / Time Zone Slope of load curve day of event Slope impacts day of adjustment

6. 6 Are Current Methods Acceptable?

7. 7 Challenges and Move to M & V Standards Challenges Leverage existing work adjusting for key learning's Improve quality of baseline estimate Day of event baseline adjustment Incorporate weather sensitivity in original CBL Differentiate weather vs. non-weather sensitive loads Minimizing number of methods Keep it simple – if possible M & V Standards Continue effort to develop national standards Recognize concerns of all participants Account for jurisdictional issues Develop standard controls & reporting

8. 8 Baselines (CBL) - What should be considered? Based on number of day average Do not: Consider type of business Weather Season Day of Week