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Chicken Little By: Warren Barhorst The End is Near.

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1 Chicken Little By: Warren Barhorst The End is Near

2 CHICKEN LITTLE Do you know the story? The Sky Is Falling, also known as Chicken Little, Henny Penny or Chicken Licken is an old fable about a chicken (or a hare in early versions) who believes the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. This usage is generally derogatory. The Sky Is Falling, also known as Chicken Little, Henny Penny or Chicken Licken is an old fable about a chicken (or a hare in early versions) who believes the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. This usage is generally derogatory.fablechickenharefablechickenhare Although sometimes mistakenly listed as one of Aesop's Fables, the story actually originates from the Jataka Tales of Buddhist Indian folklore.[1] The basic motif and many of the elements of the tale can be found in the Daddabha Jataka (J 322). The Jatakas comprise a large body of folklore dating from around Gautama Buddha's time (6th century BCE) to the third century CE. However, this ancient version features a hare as the central character rather than a chicken, and the wise protagonist is a lion (the Bodhisattva or future Buddha). Although sometimes mistakenly listed as one of Aesop's Fables, the story actually originates from the Jataka Tales of Buddhist Indian folklore.[1] The basic motif and many of the elements of the tale can be found in the Daddabha Jataka (J 322). The Jatakas comprise a large body of folklore dating from around Gautama Buddha's time (6th century BCE) to the third century CE. However, this ancient version features a hare as the central character rather than a chicken, and the wise protagonist is a lion (the Bodhisattva or future Buddha).Aesop's FablesJataka TalesBuddhistIndian folklore[1]Gautama BuddhahareBodhisattvaBuddhaAesop's FablesJataka TalesBuddhistIndian folklore[1]Gautama BuddhahareBodhisattvaBuddha From Wikipedia Do you understand why the fable exists? Do you?

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4 HE SAW THE SIGNS Central Texas Home Sales Sizzle Slows Central Texas Home Sales Sizzle Slows (Housing, Austin-Round Rock, 11/27/2007) AUSTIN (Austin Board of Realtors) – Single-family home sales declined last month according to the latest MLS report from the Austin Board of Realtors. Year-to-date home sales for October marked... HousingAustin-Round Rock11/27/2007 Central Texas Home Sales Sizzle SlowsHousingAustin-Round Rock11/27/2007 Fewer Listings, Fewer Sales Fewer Listings, Fewer Sales (Housing, Wichita Falls, 11/20/2007) WICHITA FALLS ( TimesRecordNews ) – The number HousingWichita Falls11/20/2007 Fewer Listings, Fewer SalesHousingWichita Falls11/20/2007 of existing homes sold here dropped from 146 in September to 108 last month, marking the second consecutive month of sales declines. John Caussey...

5 HE SAW THE SIGNS Houston New Home Starts Down Houston New Home Starts Down (Housing, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, 11/9/2007) HOUSTON ( Houston Chronicle ) – Developers started 9,725 single- family homes during this years third quarter, a 28 percent drop from last years same period, according to Metrostudy... HousingHouston-Sugar Land-Baytown11/9/2007 Houston New Home Starts DownHousingHouston-Sugar Land-Baytown11/9/2007 Sales Stepping Downward Sales Stepping Downward (Housing, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, 11/9/2007) DALLAS ( Dallas Morning News ) – Although not HousingDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington11/9/2007 Sales Stepping DownwardHousingDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington11/9/2007 as steep as Septembers 19 percent drop, area existing home sales continued stair-stepping down. Octobers pre-owned home sales fell...

6 HE SAW THE SIGNS Big Three auto sales decline By Robert Schoenberger, Newhouse News Service Wednesday, October 24, 2007 Fed's Bernanke: U.S. GDP to slow, USD remains reserve currency Posted Nov 8th :44PM by Joseph Joseph Lazzaro CEOs, Wall Street warn of recession Fri Oct 19, :52pm EDT By Bill Rigby It goes on and on and on….

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8 Youve heard them all! Youll shoot your eye out Youll shoot your eye out The market is bad The market is bad No one is buying No one is buying Its slow out there Its slow out there Our Price is too high Our Price is too high My mortgage brokers are dried up My mortgage brokers are dried up My referral source went out of business My referral source went out of business Bla…Bla…Bla… Bla…Bla…Bla…

9 So is the Sky really falling…

10 The price of houses seems to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline. (Time Magazine, December 1, 1947) The price of houses seems to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline. (Time Magazine, December 1, 1947)Time MagazineTime Magazine Houses cost too much for the mass market. Todays average price is around $8000, out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers. (Science Digest, April 1948) Houses cost too much for the mass market. Todays average price is around $8000, out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers. (Science Digest, April 1948)Science DigestScience Digest If you bought your house since the war, you have made your deal at the top of the market. The days when you couldnt lose on a home purchase are no longer with us. (House Beautiful, November 1948) If you bought your house since the war, you have made your deal at the top of the market. The days when you couldnt lose on a home purchase are no longer with us. (House Beautiful, November 1948)House BeautifulHouse Beautiful The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000. (Business Week, September 4, 1969) The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000. (Business Week, September 4, 1969)Business WeekBusiness Week Be suspicious of the common wisdom that tells you to buy now because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher. (NEA Journal, December, 1970) Be suspicious of the common wisdom that tells you to buy now because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher. (NEA Journal, December, 1970) The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing experts predict that in the future price rises wont be that great. (National Business, June 1977) The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing experts predict that in the future price rises wont be that great. (National Business, June 1977)National BusinessNational Business The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close. (Money Magazine, January 1981) The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close. (Money Magazine, January 1981)Money MagazineMoney Magazine So is the Sky really falling…

11 … In California for example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses. Im confident prices have passed their peak. (John Wesley English and Gary Emerson Cardiff, THE COMING REAL ESTATE CRASH, 1980) … In California for example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses. Im confident prices have passed their peak. (John Wesley English and Gary Emerson Cardiff, THE COMING REAL ESTATE CRASH, 1980) The golden age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.( Money Magazine, March 1985) The golden age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.( Money Magazine, March 1985)Money MagazineMoney Magazine If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore. (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985) If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore. (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985)Miami HeraldMiami Herald Most economists agree, a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s. (Money Magazine, 1986) Most economists agree, a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s. (Money Magazine, 1986)Money MagazineMoney Magazine Were starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot. (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993) Were starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot. (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993)Los Angeles TimesLos Angeles Times Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment. (Kiplingers Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993) Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment. (Kiplingers Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993)Kiplingers Personal Financial MagazineKiplingers Personal Financial Magazine A home is where a bad investment is. (San Francisco Examiner, November 17, 1996) A home is where a bad investment is. (San Francisco Examiner, November 17, 1996)San Francisco ExaminerSan Francisco Examiner Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment. (Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000) Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment. (Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000) So is the Sky really falling…

12 Texas MLS

13 Building Permits

14 US Stock Market

15 US Unemployment

16 Whats the Trend? USA Trends Year Number of Consumers116,282,000117,356,000118,843,000 Household Income before Tax $ 54, $ 58, $ 60, Average Age Percent Homeownership6867 Average Number of Vehicles 1.92 Average Annual Expenditures $ 43, $ 46, $ 48, Average Spent on Insurance $ 4, $ 5, $ 5,270.00

17 WHAT DO THE TRENDS TELL YOU?

18 Successful people succeed in any perceived market! Up or down it does not matter. How hard are you willing to work?

19 Is Your Business Down?

20 Do You Have The Right Combination? Is your business built with multiple revenue streams? Is your business built with multiple revenue streams? Personal Lines Personal Lines Commercial Lines Commercial Lines Life, Health and Disability Life, Health and Disability Financial Services Financial Services Brokerage Brokerage Fees Fees

21 Do You Have The Right Combination? Is your marketing plan multifaceted? Is your marketing plan multifaceted? Centers of influence Centers of influence Mortgage Bankers Mortgage Bankers Realtors Realtors Car Dealers Car Dealers Apartment Complexes Apartment Complexes Property Managers Property Managers Home Builders Home Builders Associations Associations Business Owners Business Owners Employee Management Employee Management Multi-line Existing Accounts Multi-line Existing Accounts Direct Mail Direct Mail Referral Program Referral Program Advertising Advertising Sponsorships Sponsorships Partnerships Partnerships Networking Groups Networking Groups Use the Back Door… Its easier!

22 OVIDOVID: Let your hook always be cast; in the pool where you least expect it, there will be a fish.

23 Do You Have The Right Combination? Are you maximizing the revenue from each Personal Lines account? Are you maximizing the revenue from each Personal Lines account? Auto $100 Home$120 Flood$ 50 PUL$ 35 IM$ 35 Life$350 Disability$400 Health$200 IRA$200 Its your Call! Make $100 or $1000!

24 Do You Have The Right Combination? Are you maximizing the revenue from each Commercial Lines account? Are you maximizing the revenue from each Commercial Lines account? Do write the whole account? Do write the whole account? P&C P&C BOP, Auto, Umbrella, IM, WC, EPLI, E&O BOP, Auto, Umbrella, IM, WC, EPLI, E&O Group Health Group Health 401K / Pension 401K / Pension Group Life Group Life Key Man or Owner Life Key Man or Owner Life Personal Lines Personal Lines Owner Owner Employees Employees

25 Dont Be a Chicken Little!


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