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Labour Force Survey Boukje Janssen, 16-05-2013. Contents LFS Design LFS Figures Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models Redesign LFS Remote Acces Files.

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Presentation on theme: "Labour Force Survey Boukje Janssen, 16-05-2013. Contents LFS Design LFS Figures Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models Redesign LFS Remote Acces Files."— Presentation transcript:

1 Labour Force Survey Boukje Janssen,

2 Contents LFS Design LFS Figures Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models Redesign LFS Remote Acces Files > future developments Labour Force Survey 1

3 2 Panel Design LFS

4 Labour Force Survey 3 Quarterly Estimates Respons 15-64: E,d,c,b,a ~ 80 thousand persons

5 Labour Force Survey 4 Yearly Estimates Average of 4 estimates of ~ 80 thousand persons

6 Labour Force Survey 5 Yearly Estimates per Wave Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Respons 15-64: c,d,e,f ~ 55 thousand persons

7 Labour Force Survey 6 Quarterly Flow Estimates Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Respons 15-64: e,d,c,b ~ 55 thousand persons

8 Yearly Flow Estimates Labour Force Survey 7 Respons 15-64: a,b,c,d ~ 55 thousand persons

9 Monthly Estimates Labour Force Survey 8 Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Five series of estimates

10 Structural Time Series Model What we do with STM:  Improve estimates with sample data from the past  Explicit modelling of panel bias  Modelling autocorrelation between waves Labour Force Survey 9 Montht-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t Wave 1t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t 2t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 3t-10 t-9 t-8 t-7 t-6 4t-13 t-12 t-11 t-10 t-9 5t-16 t-15 t-14 t-13 t-12

11 Monthly Estimates by STM Labour Force Survey 10 = Monthly estimates STM (trend and including seasonal effect) GREG estimates each month each wave (panel) Bias Sampling error (variance, autocorrelation) + - -

12 Monthly Figures Labour Force Survey 11

13 Consistency Labour Force Survey 12 Employed and unemployed labour force: Monthly estimates = Quarterly estimates = Yearly estimates = Flow estimates (start- and end-point)

14 Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey 13 Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Before 2010:

15 Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 F2F/Tel ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh

16 Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey … Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/F2F/Tel ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh

17 Remote Acces Files > future developments Timeliness (quarterly) More comparable with files for CBS users e.g. classifications for publication Linked to other sources (registrations etc.) Labour Force Survey 16

18 Questions ??


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