1. Resistance Management and Sustainable Use of Agricultural Biotechnology 4 th Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference in conjunction with the NC- 1034 Research Conference University of California, Berkeley March 24-6, 2011 George Frisvold Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics University of Arizona 1

2. Problem Statement Transgenic crop varieties with insect resistant (IR) and herbicide resistant (HR) traits can provide significant economic and environmental benefits Transgenic crop varieties with insect resistant (IR) and herbicide resistant (HR) traits can provide significant economic and environmental benefits Benefits will be short-lived if resistance not delayed Benefits will be short-lived if resistance not delayed 2

3. Problem Statement Despite 3 documented cases of field- evolved resistance, there have been no economically significant field control problems for IR Bt crops Despite 3 documented cases of field- evolved resistance, there have been no economically significant field control problems for IR Bt crops Glyphosate-resistant weeds have become an economically significant problem in the SE US Glyphosate-resistant weeds have become an economically significant problem in the SE US What accounts for the difference? What accounts for the difference? 3

4. Whats at Stake? Loss of economic benefits Loss of economic benefits Loss of environmental benefits Loss of environmental benefits Negative demonstration effect for biotechnology Negative demonstration effect for biotechnology 4

5. Adoption of genetically modified (GM) crop varieties (as a share of world hectares and as a share of hectares in approving countries) CottonMaizeCanolaSoybeans Total World Hectares Planted to GM Varieties (%) 49%23%27%66% Hectares Planted to GM Varieties in Countries Where GM Varieties of Crop Have Been Approved (%) 78%60%72%90% Crop Hectares in Countries where GM Varieties of Crop Have Been Approved (% of total) 63%39%37%74% Crop Hectares in Countries where GM Varieties of Crop Have Not Been Approved (% of total) 37%61%63%26% 5

6. Difference in Resistance Depends on attributes of Bt and HR crop technologies Depends on attributes of Bt and HR crop technologies Consistency with IPM principles Consistency with IPM principles Diversification vs. concentration in pest control Diversification vs. concentration in pest control And on regulatory and institutional setting And on regulatory and institutional setting This also depends on attributes of technology This also depends on attributes of technology 6

7. Properties of IR and HR Crops IR Crops HR crops SpectrumNarrowBroad Target pest mobility HighLower Externalities Bt microbial sprays / organic agriculture Initially none / Potential loss of conservation tillage Management intensity HighLow Compatibility with IPM or IWM High Low thus far 7

8. Properties of IR and HR Crops IR Crops HR crops Availability of substitutes No close substitutes for Bt Price signals suggest no scarcity Resistance management Federally regulated Decentralized, voluntary Scientific understanding of RM strategies Relatively high Lower Costs of RM Low for many growers Prevention costs similar to ex post mitigation costs Ability to monitor RM HigherLow 8

9. Organization of Resistance Management Miranowski & Carlson, National Academy book chapter (1986) Predicts organizational form of RM Useful starting point One would expect voluntary, monopolist led RM for HR crops Expect more regulatory approach for IR crops

10. 3 Documented cases of field- evolved resistance to Bt crops Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm) to Cry1F toxin in Bt corn in Puerto Rico Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm) to Cry1F toxin in Bt corn in Puerto Rico Busseola fusca (maize stalk borer) to Cry1Ab in Bt corn in South Africa Busseola fusca (maize stalk borer) to Cry1Ab in Bt corn in South Africa Helicoverpa zea (cotton bollworm) to Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab in Bt cotton in the U.S. Southeast Helicoverpa zea (cotton bollworm) to Cry1Ac and Cry2Ab in Bt cotton in the U.S. Southeast Possible 4 th case: (pink bollworm) in India Possible 4 th case: (pink bollworm) in India 10

11. Bt crop resistance & susceptibility 5 studies from China and India with ambiguous evidence of resistance of Helicoverpa armigera to Cry1Ac in Bt cotton. 5 studies from China and India with ambiguous evidence of resistance of Helicoverpa armigera to Cry1Ac in Bt cotton. No increase in resistance for 7 pests No increase in resistance for 7 pests H. zea and H. armigera still susceptible across many areas H. zea and H. armigera still susceptible across many areas 11

12. Resistance has not led to field level control failures Chemical control of target pests still effective Chemical control of target pests still effective Introduction of crops with multiple Bt toxins Introduction of crops with multiple Bt toxins But... 2010 saw increase in bollworm / budworm spraying and damages in MS Delta But... 2010 saw increase in bollworm / budworm spraying and damages in MS Delta 12

13. Acres treated trending up in LA & MS

14. Applications up in all 3 states

15. Greater losses per acre in 2010

16. Weed species with glyphosate resistant populations states with glyphosate-resistant weed populations 16 Populations, blue States, red

17. Costs of HR weeds Weed management cost estimates in US range from $30-$160 per hectare Weed management cost estimates in US range from $30-$160 per hectare Severe cases have led to crop abandonment Severe cases have led to crop abandonment Regarding Palmer amaranth there are no economical programs to manage this pest in cotton (Culpepper and Kichler, 2009) Regarding Palmer amaranth there are no economical programs to manage this pest in cotton (Culpepper and Kichler, 2009) 17

18. Rise in Glyphosate, Loss of Diversity of Mode of Action

19. Corn Reliant on Glyphosate and Triazine Herbicides

20. Price Indices for Agricultural Inputs in the US 20 HerbicidesInsecticidesFertilizerFuelsLaborTractors Production Items 1997100 199997108878911010693 200196111102114119110101 200396112102132128113104 200599111136204134123118 2007104114179249144133134 2009121124227215152148153 2010115126203267151154157 Percent Change 1997-07 4%14%79%149%44%33%34% 2007-10 10%11%14%7% 14%17%

21. 21 Herbicide Prices Have Fallen Relative to Other Inputs

22. Special Issue: Herbicide Resistant Crops: Diffusion, Benefits, Pricing, and Resistance Management Volume 12 // Number 3 & 4 // 2009 22

23. Percent of growers often or always adopting resistance management practice 23 US Cotton Source: Frisvold, Hurley, and Mitchell, 2009

24. Percent of growers often or always adopting resistance management practice 24 Corn Soybeans Cotton

25. Plant Breeders to the Rescue? Pyramiding multiple Bt toxins in single crop varieties Pyramiding multiple Bt toxins in single crop varieties Stacking traits – Crops that are resistant to multiple herbicides Stacking traits – Crops that are resistant to multiple herbicides Allows rotating herbicides with different modes of action Allows rotating herbicides with different modes of action Homogeneous blends – mixtures with different modes of action Homogeneous blends – mixtures with different modes of action Quick registration of blends anticipated Quick registration of blends anticipated 25

26. Top-Down vs. Bottom Up Approaches to RM Top-Down Top-Down Less management intensive Less management intensive Relies on a small number of traits (are these enough given resistance to individual traits?) Relies on a small number of traits (are these enough given resistance to individual traits?) Growers passively selecting products off the shelf Growers passively selecting products off the shelf Relies on technology to keep one step ahead of resistance Relies on technology to keep one step ahead of resistance Treadmill continues in different form? Treadmill continues in different form? 26

27. Top-Down vs. Bottom Up Approaches to RM Bottom Up Bottom Up Active grower involvement in cooperative RM Active grower involvement in cooperative RM Education to combat common pool externalities Education to combat common pool externalities Two way flow of information between growers and scientists / regulators Two way flow of information between growers and scientists / regulators 27

28. Lessons from Arizona Bt cotton introduced into mature area-wide IPM program Bt cotton introduced into mature area-wide IPM program Heavy reliance on scientific information Heavy reliance on scientific information Insecticide use on target pest (PBW) and for all pests has declined Insecticide use on target pest (PBW) and for all pests has declined No increase in resistance No increase in resistance PBW Eradication under way with Bt cotton as a centerpiece PBW Eradication under way with Bt cotton as a centerpiece 28

29. Total AZ Cotton Insecticide Applications Trending Down 29 Source: Frisvold, 2009

30. Trend Continues 30

31. 31

32. Summing Up Failure to develop successful RM strategies will deprive current adopters of the benefit of crop biotechnology & have a negative demonstration effect Failure to develop successful RM strategies will deprive current adopters of the benefit of crop biotechnology & have a negative demonstration effect Key factors determining RM success are technology attributes and institutional capacity Key factors determining RM success are technology attributes and institutional capacity Public and private plant breeding can play a critical role in developing stacked traits that reduce over-reliance on single chemical compounds Public and private plant breeding can play a critical role in developing stacked traits that reduce over-reliance on single chemical compounds IR and HR crops will be more sustainably deployed if embedded in IPM / IWM programs with strong, outward extension linkages to farmers and backward linkages to research institutions IR and HR crops will be more sustainably deployed if embedded in IPM / IWM programs with strong, outward extension linkages to farmers and backward linkages to research institutions Role of Extension Role of Extension Information provision Information provision Can facilitate farmer collective action for area-wide RM Can facilitate farmer collective action for area-wide RM Provide government agencies with information needed to increase the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of resistance management regulations Provide government agencies with information needed to increase the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of resistance management regulations 32