Presentation on theme: "THE NEXT 25 YEARS IN SPACE: Long-Term Trends, Forecasts, Timelines Dr. Bruce Cordell January 2007."— Presentation transcript:
THE NEXT 25 YEARS IN SPACE: Long-Term Trends, Forecasts, Timelines Dr. Bruce Cordell www.21stCenturyWaves.com Cordell@UCLAlumni.com January 2007
Abstract 21 st Century Waves: Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos Futures Research Quarterly, Fall, 2006 Long-term trends in economics, technology, and society point to the decade from 2015 – 2025 as the analog of the 1960s. The technology and exploration activities culminating near 2025 will be unprecedented and spectacular, and may include humans on Mars, tourists and solar power satellites in Earth orbit, and industrial and scientific operations on the Moon. This forecast is supported by a survey of the last 200 years which revealed routine clustering - during economic booms every 56 years - of major human explorations (e.g. Lewis and Clark) and macro-engineering projects (e.g. Panama Canal), as well as major wars (e.g. Civil War). New scientific evidence for the psychosocial power of the Space Vision suggests it is capable of providing a revitalizing force for human civilization in the near future. Despite its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully materialize until around 2025 when long-term trends in economics, technology, and society are favorable again. The next opportunity after 2025 for major human expansion into the cosmos will be in 2081.
The Approach A Long-Range Perspective –Not just years or decades, but centuries Has Specific, Near-Term Implications –Timing of events over the next 20 years Not a Wish List – A Forecast Model and Framework Needed for NASA Planning Explains Why No Human Spaceflight beyond LEO after Apollo Identifies Two Fundamental Drivers –Long-term economic waves –Positive psychology of Exploration/Expansion
Agenda Introduction One Key Question Exploration/MEP Waves Maslow Windows and How They Work Forecasts/Timelines Summary
Major Events and Activities Energy Peaks 1801 1857 1913 1969 Economic Booms Yes Yes Yes Yes Major Human Lewis & Clark/ Livingston/ Peary/ Apollo/ Explorations N. America Africa N. Polar Moon Macro-Engineering None Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo Projects (MEP) Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/ War of 1812 Cold War
Colliers – Prelude to Apollo … the inevitably of mans conquest of space… is not science fiction…the U.S. must immediately embark on a long-range program. Colliers, March 1952 17 Yrs Later: Apollo 11 landed on the Moon Is There A Parallel Today?
The Situation Today Windows of opportunity are brief (~decade)… Space Planners Can Learn From Desert Storm Space News, 6/24, (1991) Exploration/MEP Waves exist w ~56 yr periods… Forecasting the Next Major Thrust into Space Space Policy, 12,1 (1996) Exploration/MEP events of 2015-2025 will be unprecedented (e.g., ~$Apollo X10)… 21 st Century Waves: Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos Futures Research Quarterly, Fall (2006) Our economic, technological, and strategic situation today – viewed in the context of long-term trends – is highly analogous to von Braun in 1952
21 st Century Forecasts – A Preview of 2015-2025 At least one major human exploration (HE) event; it will feature space activities on an unprecedented scale by 2025 At least one macro-engineering project (MEP) integrated with the major human space activities culminating near 2025 A major war near 2025 The decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog – economically, technologically, exploration-wise, politically – and have the zeitgeist of the 1960s
Three Issues How can forecasts like this be made with high confidence? What has been happening since Apollo? What are some of the near-term economic, technological, and political events we can expect to see that will culminate in dramatic space initiatives by 2025?
Why Should NASA Care? A Forecast Model and Framework for long- range planning A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms A Morale Boost -- Timing is almost inevitable due to long waves in the economy (i.e., Maslow Windows)
Whats Changed in the Last Decade? Academic field of Positive Psychology founded, 1998 –Prof. Martin Seligman (Univ PA) et al. NATO Advanced Workshop: K-Waves, Warfare and World Security, 2005 –Portugal The Missing Links…
Two Fundamental Themes 1.New psychological research has established the psychosocial power of visions of the future– The Space Vision can provide a revitalizing force for human civilization in the near- term future 2.Despite its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully materialize until near 2025 -- Long-term trends in economics, technology, and society will be favorable again
One Key Question
Why No Major Thrust Into Space Beyond LEO After Apollo? No International Threat (Logsdon) Too Expensive; Competition overemphasized (McDougall) Generational Change (McCurdy) Didnt pay off (Brin) Space Has No Meaning (Roland) Cyberspace replaced Outer Space (Benjamin) Space was a Political Deception (DeGroot) These are Only Part of the Story…
Vision and the Future Positive Psychology -- Prof. Martin Seligman (2002): Optimists – people with a positive vision of the future – perform better in school and college, are more successful at work and home, and are usually healthier and live longer. Positive Visions -- Prof. Fred Polak (1961): The rise and fall of images of the future precedes or accompanies the rise and fall of cultures. Self-Organized Criticality -- Prof. Per Bak (1997): Large interactive systems eventually organize themselves into a critical state in which a minor event can initiate a catastrophe.
NASAs 1989 Exploration Meeting in Aspen Space is highly visible, positive symbol of human exploration featuring: Fundamental human values (e.g., teamwork, seach for truth, technology intensive) Versatility (i.e., inclusive of other visions like globalization, nano- and biotechnology) Parallels with historically-known successful visions So, why isnt Space Thriving Now?
The Key Hint is… The Cultural Centrality of Human Exploration over the last 200,000 years… Only major unmet human needs – as in Maslows Hierarchy – can explain our confinement on Earth In the last 200 years, when Maslow pressures (e.g., physiological, financial) are loosened, exploration flourishes What Was Special About the 1960s Apollo Decade?
The Energy Use Cycle (EC) – A Convenient Framework Discovered in 1989 by Stewart; Also Modis (1992) EC Parameters – Period: 56 yrs; Amplitude: 20%; Data almost 2 centuries back EC is consistent with K Waves (disc. by Kondratieff in 1920s) Many correlations of economy and society with EC; e.g., EC Peaks are economic booms Are Major Exploration and Technology Events Correlated With EC?
21 st Century Waves Economics Technology Exploration Military Others… Waves in Phase w 56 Yr Energy Cycle
Major Human Exploration Events and MEPs: Definitions Major Human Exploration Events are recognized by: 1.Exploration of significantly new geographical sites 2.An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger 3.Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by: 1.Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved 2.Extreme cost ($ 1+ B) and very large physical size 3.Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)
MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS I: Major Human Exploration Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. Lewis and Clark/American West (1804-06) D = +3 yr 2. Livingstone/Africa (1852-56; 1858-64) D = -5 yr King/American West (1864- ) 3. Peary/North Pole (1909) D = -4 yr 4. Apollo/Moon (1960-72) D = -9 yr
MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS II: Macro-Engineering Projects (MEP) Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. None (1801) 2. Suez Canal (1859-69) D = +2 yr Great Eastern Ship (1854-58) Trans-Atlantic Cable (1866) 3. Panama Canal (1904-14)D = - 9 yr Titanic (1912) 4. Apollo (1960-72)D = -9 yr
MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS III: Major Wars Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. Napoleonic Wars/Europe (1803-1815)D = +2 yr War of 1812/N. America (1812-15) 2. Civil War/U.S.A. (1861-65)D = + 4 yr 3. W. W. I (1914-18)D = +1 yr 4. Vietnam (1965-73)D = -4 yr
Exploration/MEP Waves Exist For at least the last 200 years with period of ~56 years Consistent with Energy Cycle Random clustering probability for events is ~10(-6) All Major Exploration, MEP, and War events occur during (or shortly after) the decade just preceeding the EC Peaks; i.e., the Maslow Window
Maslow Windows and How They Work
The Maslow Window Flow Economic boom every ~56 yrs in decade just before each energy cycle peak Dramatic Reduction of Maslow Pressures Prosperity, Ebullience, Positive Vision of Future Emergence of conditions enabling Major Human Exploration and a Major War
Maslow Characteristics Over Last 200 Years MEP Costs dramatically increase, 100x Exploration/MEP Timing; 5-9 yr before energy peaks Major War Timing; just after energy peak, except for Vietnam Rapid Cut-off After Energy Cycle Peaks Significant Economic Growth between Peaks Dramatic Economic Booms every ~56 yrs triggered by technological innovations
Forecasts, Timelines – The Next 25 years in Space
21 st Century Forecasts – A Framework for the Future At least one major human exploration (HE) event; it will feature space activities on an unprecedented scale by 2025 At least one macro-engineering project (MEP) integrated with the major human space activities culminating near 2025 A major war near 2025 The decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog – economically, technologically, exploration-wise, politically – and have the zeitgeist of the 1960s
A Major Human Exploration Event…by 2025 Focus on space beyond LEO Result of an economic boom starting ~2015 Integrated with an MEP; the new Apollo trend Public support fueled by international Sputnik- like competitors and space tourism industry More parallels with Lewis & Clark Window than with Apollo Window (e.g., WW II)? Duration of Maslow Window determines extent of Exploration
An MEP Integrated w Human Exploration Event…by 2025 Result of an economic boom starting ~2015 Integrated with Major Human Exploration; e.g., manned Mars exploration May include LEO solar power satellites and space tourism Cost of MEPs dramatically increased ($Apollo=100x$Suez) MEPs tend to start nearly one decade prior to energy peak
One Major War ~2025 One Major War near each Energy Cycle peak Interactive w economic boom starting ~2015 War on Terror (like Cold War before) may produce a Vietnam-like hot War ~2025 An early War (early 2020s) could partly or completely eliminate Exploration/MEP events of Maslow Window War timing is the major unknown; e.g., Vietnam was earlier than previous Windows
Nominal Timeline (1997-2010) 1954 More Colliers space issues 2010 Hotels in LEO? US Bikini H Bomb test (20 Mt) 1952 Colliers space issues ------------------ 2008 Space Adventures plans Public flights to Moon 1951 56 yrs ago Today 2007 Today Virgin Galactic plans public Suborbital flights 1950 Korean War Begins 2006 U.S. begins H-Bomb project 1948 2004 SpaceShipOne captures X Prize 1947 Truman Doctrine 2003 Iraq War Begins DoD, CIA formed 1946 2002 Homeland Security Dept. formed 1945 Cold War Begins --------------------- 2001 War on Terror Begins W.W. II Ends 9/11 Attack on U.S. 1942 Manhattan Project Begins 1998 1941 Energy Cycle Trough 1997 Energy Cycle Trough W.W. II Becomes Global
Nominal Timeline (2011-19) 1962 Glenn 1st American to orbit 2018 NASA plans return to Moon Cuban Missile Crisis 1961 Gargarin 1st to Orbit -------------------- 2017 Space President Shepard 1st American in space; announces Moon/Mars President Kennedy: Moon by program goals? end of decade speech 1960 Apollo Program begins 2016 Space President Elected? President Kennedy Elected 1 st X-15 Flight 1959 Maslow #4 Window Opens --- 2015 Maslow #5 Window Opens NERVA Nuclear Rocket program 1958 NASA Formed --------------------------- 2014 Interspace Formed? 1st U.S. satellite in orbit Project Orion begins 1957 Sputnik Launched -----------------------2013 China, Japan, and/or ESA, etc. commit to human space settlement programs? 1956 Project Rover Reactor/AEC 2012 (Early Election of Space President?) 1955 North American selected to 2011 Earth orbital hotel vacations develop X-15 routine and affordable?
Nominal Timeline (2020-30) 1973 Oil Crisis ------------------------------------------ 2029 Energy/Environmental Crisis? Economic Slowdown Economic Slowdown? Humans continuously on Mars? 1972 Vietnam War ends ------------------------------ 2028 War Window closes? Last Apollo Moon flight NERVA Canceled 2027 Self-Sufficient Mars Bases 1970 Apollo 18-20 Canceled Established? 1969 Energy Peak/Maslow #4 Closes--- 2025 Energy Peak/Maslow #5 Closes 1st Apollo Moon Landing 1st Human Landing on Mars? 1968 Apollo 8 – 1st humans 2024 to Moon orbit; Tet Offensive 1967 1 st Saturn V launch 2023 Humans to Mars moons? Robotic probes mine water on Phobos for propellants? 1965 Vietnam War begins---------------------------- 2021 War Window opens? Gemini Program Oxygen & Hydrogen mined on Moon 1964 2020 1st Lunar Bases?
Summary and Conclusions Despite new scientific evidence for its compelling nature, the Space Vision will not fully materialize until near 2025, when long- term trends in the economy, technology, and society are favorable again Preliminary technological and political forecast model includes: onset of War on Terror (2001), rise of space tourism (2007+), Sputnik-like events (2013), global space organization formed (2014), 1 st human on Mars (2025), economic slowdown (2025+), a major war (2020-2030?). After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081. Can Humanity Afford to Wait?