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David B. MacNeill Fisheries Specialist NY Sea Grant Extension SUNY Oswego Global Climate Change and Uncertainty.

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Presentation on theme: "David B. MacNeill Fisheries Specialist NY Sea Grant Extension SUNY Oswego Global Climate Change and Uncertainty."— Presentation transcript:

1 David B. MacNeill Fisheries Specialist NY Sea Grant Extension SUNY Oswego Global Climate Change and Uncertainty

2 Polar bears Al Gore Apocalypse Junk Science Greenhouse gases Glaciers Kyoto Decision-making Disaster IPCC Tradeoffs Human dimensions Policy implementation Human behavior Public perceptions Mitigation Heresy Communication Adaptation Scenarios Social Sciences Climate models Biodiversity Chicanery Conspiracy

3 This Presentation: Broad-brush overview of climate change uncertainties, communication etc. from literature sources, extension experience with scientific uncertainty. Broad-brush overview of climate change uncertainties, communication etc. from literature sources, extension experience with scientific uncertainty. Not an indictment of science or an admonishment of scientists, policy makers, government or the lay community!! Not an indictment of science or an admonishment of scientists, policy makers, government or the lay community!!

4 Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards?? Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards?? The uncertainty: What poker hand will I draw next? The risk: What is the probability of drawing it? (<1%) The Dead Mans Hand: unlucky for Wild Bill Hickok?

5 But, the card deck changes unexpectedly…… The Risk ? Death cards Other cards

6 Some Climate Change Perspectives A complex, multidisciplinary issue of long- term global consequence, that demands: A complex, multidisciplinary issue of long- term global consequence, that demands: –Best available information –New assessment, predictive, decision-making tools –A carefully planned extension/outreach strategy –Better PR for science An opportunity to: An opportunity to: –Inform communities: climate science, risks, abatement and science 101 –Assist coastal communities: decision-making

7 Global Climate Model

8 Many different disciplines. Many different disciplines. Highly uncertain events; outcomes poorly defined. Highly uncertain events; outcomes poorly defined. Interactive anthropogenic and natural events. Interactive anthropogenic and natural events. Future outcomes sensitive to small changes in current conditions. Future outcomes sensitive to small changes in current conditions. Incomplete understanding of climate system. Incomplete understanding of climate system. Imprecise models: feedbacks, interactions, parameter values. Imprecise models: feedbacks, interactions, parameter values. Huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces. Huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces. Compilation: decades of intensive, international research. Compilation: decades of intensive, international research. Climate Change Complexity :

9 Uncertainty leads to those nagging questions Is climate change real?, are humans responsible? What are the impacts?, What should we do? What are the impacts?, What should we do? Why: Why: –is science uncertain? –do scientists disagree? change their minds? –dont scientists always have the answer? –do results contradict?

10 Uncertainty paradigms Uncertainty is unwelcome, and needs to be avoided. Science must eliminate uncertainty through more and better research. Uncertainty is undesirable, but unavoidable. Science must estimate and quantify uncertainty as well as possible. Uncertainty creates opportunities. Science must contribute to more inclusive, understandable discussions. Uncertainty is an integral part of decision-making. Science must have more societal influence.

11 Communicating Science and Uncertainties Why even bother ??? PR: The process of science. PR: The process of science. Restore credibility of science: increased transparency. Restore credibility of science: increased transparency. Provide accessible information/knowledge to decision-makers. Provide accessible information/knowledge to decision-makers. Decision-making: accurate and collaborative. Decision-making: accurate and collaborative. Increase public support/involvement: decision- making Increase public support/involvement: decision- making Enhance societal abilities: adaptation & mitigation Enhance societal abilities: adaptation & mitigation GCC interactions: science and human ecology GCC interactions: science and human ecology

12 Three Arguments for Climate Change Climate is changing: analyses of many indicators Climate is changing: analyses of many indicators Human activities have contributed to increases in green house gas emissions Human activities have contributed to increases in green house gas emissions Scientific deliberations and large-scale computer models suggest potential for climate change from anthropogenic influences Scientific deliberations and large-scale computer models suggest potential for climate change from anthropogenic influences High degree of confidence: weight of evidence from expert opinion High degree of confidence: weight of evidence from expert opinion

13 Is climate really changing? Surface temperature record Sea Ice Sea level Glacial record Sub-surface ocean temperatures Climate proxies Convincing evidence BUT.. Contentious Points Climate cycles Remote sensing calibration Climate proxy accuracy Policies: people or nature Model predictive power Climate sensitivity Earths resiliency? Solar activity Natural vs. anthropogenic

14 Muir Glacier Alaska, August photo by W.O. Field Seeing is Believing? Muir Glacier Alaska, August photo by B.F. Molnia

15 Uncertainty Scientist Non-scientist You just dont understand. Its too complicated. We know what is best. Its not our job to explain it to you. Were scientists, not interpreters. Science is sloppy - a collection of useless facts. Youre arrogant, out-of touch and have impractical ideas. Youve been wrong before. Prove it. An exaggerated view…..

16 Some major challenges Continuing uncertainties on climate system sensitivity to various feedbacks (e.g., clouds, water vapor, snow). Continuing uncertainties on climate system sensitivity to various feedbacks (e.g., clouds, water vapor, snow). Several natural modes of climate variability have been identified and described, but their predictability is uncertain. Several natural modes of climate variability have been identified and described, but their predictability is uncertain. Need to improve understanding of whether and how human impacts may alter natural climate variability. Need to improve understanding of whether and how human impacts may alter natural climate variability. Do not yet have confident assessments of the likelihood of abrupt climate changes. Do not yet have confident assessments of the likelihood of abrupt climate changes. Insufficient understanding of effects of climate variability and change on extreme events. Insufficient understanding of effects of climate variability and change on extreme events. Limited capabilities at regional scales. Limited capabilities at regional scales. Need better means for identifying, developing, and providing climate information required for policy and resource management decisions. Need better means for identifying, developing, and providing climate information required for policy and resource management decisions.

17 Stochastic (Surprises) Science Climate System Knowledge Human reflexive (volition) Epistemic (Unknowns) Non-Scientists Macs Uncertainty Concept Model Decisions Knowledge Scientists communication (translation)

18 Stochastic (Surprises) Science Climate System Knowledge Human reflexive (volition) Epistemic (Unknowns) Non-Scientists Macs Uncertainty Concept Model Decisions Knowledge Scientists communication (translation) To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both content and reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other may produce laughter, but not good science. Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American Educator Fall 2009: Content Reasoning

19 Surprises Science Climate System Knowledge Human reflexive (volition) Unknowns Non-Scientists Macs Uncertainty Concept Model Decisions Knowledge Scientists communication (translation) To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both content and reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other may produce laughter, but not good science. Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American Educator Fall 2009: Content Reasoning

20 Different Roles of Science in GCC Policy Scientific Knowledge Politicians Policy Pure scientist Science arbiter Issue advocate Honest broker opinions Advocacy Decision making Policy makers interpretation Stakeholders ?? Roger Pielke Jr.

21 How does science work, anyway? 2. Make an informed guess about why or how something interesting happens 3. Check out how it (our speculation) stands up to what we know or what information we can get 4. Use our judgment whether to (tentatively) accept it, or change, improve or replace it 1. Observe and describe something of interest Susan Haack

22 Addressing uncertainties Identify Identify Characterize: source, magnitude Characterize: source, magnitude Solicit expert judgments: level of confidence Solicit expert judgments: level of confidence Sensitivity analysis: range of probable model outcomes assessed with model using a range of values various inputs, upper and lower bound Sensitivity analysis: range of probable model outcomes assessed with model using a range of values various inputs, upper and lower bound Quantify: probabilistic analysis (Frequentist and Bayesian), probabilistic distributions, deterministic analysis and hybrids Quantify: probabilistic analysis (Frequentist and Bayesian), probabilistic distributions, deterministic analysis and hybrids Clarify, document range and distributions Clarify, document range and distributions Articulate and communicate: probabilistic and scenarios Articulate and communicate: probabilistic and scenarios

23 Some predicted impacts of climate change? Warmer, dryer summers Warmer, dryer summers Warmer, wetter winters Warmer, wetter winters Increased spring flooding Increased spring flooding Changes in sea/lake levels, water currents, thermal structure Changes in sea/lake levels, water currents, thermal structure Increased storm frequency, severity Increased storm frequency, severity Droughts, crop loss, famine Droughts, crop loss, famine Invasive species, new or re- emerging pathogens, parasites Invasive species, new or re- emerging pathogens, parasites More hyperthermia deaths More hyperthermia deaths Coastal infrastructure/tourism Coastal infrastructure/tourism Habitat damage/loss Habitat damage/loss Loss of biodiversity, extinctions? Loss of biodiversity, extinctions? Direct In-direct Technological advances Technological advances Longer growing seasons Longer growing seasons New agriculture/tourism opportunities. New agriculture/tourism opportunities. More snow? More snow? Reduced heating costs Reduced heating costs Fewer hypothermia deaths Fewer hypothermia deaths

24 GCC heretics, infidels, skeptics, nay-sayers, cynics, deniers?? What are they really saying? Nature: too complex. Nature: too complex. Conflicting data. Conflicting data. Models: poor predictors. Models: poor predictors. Exaggerated impacts. Exaggerated impacts. Doom/gloom vs. facts. Doom/gloom vs. facts. Earths resiliency. Earths resiliency. Strategies: cost/benefits? Strategies: cost/benefits? Consensus: evidence supports GCC Consensus: evidence supports GCC Less consensus: drivers, impacts, strategies, policies Less consensus: drivers, impacts, strategies, policies

25 What is the matter with science? The debate continues…… Dyson (1993) –Consensus: peer pressure (entrepreneurial science) vs. debate –Public fear drives funding priorities = politicization of science –Science's failure to address global welfare vs. unrealistic expectations Rubin (2001) Rubin (2001) –Science is not the sole repository of the truth –Little self-limitation on deliverable truths –Get the facts straight vs. overselling science –Scientific authority fosters hidden agendas that short-circuit debate –Participatory decision making impeded by science education shortfalls Commoner (1971) Commoner (1971) –Illusion of scientific objectivity Grant et al. (2004) Grant et al. (2004) –Poppers vs. psychological v –Benedikter (2004) basic ideologies and mechanisms not fully visible (psychologically) Malnes (2006) Malnes (2006) –Mixed messages: duplicity vs. extraneous diversions

26 Classical, Modern & Post-Normal Science the Truth! Classical: Observations Sense experiments Subjective judgments Past experience Absolute Reductionist, puzzle-solving Modern / Normal: Exclusive, remote Non-interdisciplinary Experiments/models Data analysis/interpretation Hypothesis testing predictions probabilities possible explanations disconnected policy adversarial communication gaps Post-Normal Inclusive Natural & social sciences Complexity/risk/urgency Systems approach Cost/benefits Public debate Precautionary, risk management shared decision making problems solving confidence/trust building Anti-science perception

27 Classical, Modern & Post-Normal Science the Truth! Classical: Observations Sense experiments Subjective judgments Past experience Absolute Reductionist, puzzle-solving Modern / Normal: Exclusive, remote Non-interdisciplinary Experiments/models Data analysis/interpretation Hypothesis testing predictions probabilities possible explanations disconnected policy adversarial communication gaps Post-Normal Inclusive Natural & social sciences Complexity/risk/urgency Systems approach Cost/benefits Public debate Precautionary, risk management shared decision making problems solving confidence/trust building Anti-science perception

28 Perceptions of Science God-like? Elitist? Crusading knight? Mad/evil?

29 Two Opposing Metaphors for Science: God-like or Golem? Ultimate source of knowledge/wisdom. Ultimate source of knowledge/wisdom. Operates in unencumbered, controlled environment. Operates in unencumbered, controlled environment. Strives for perfection. Strives for perfection. Accountable, held to high standard. Accountable, held to high standard. A creature of our own design, neither good or bad. A creature of our own design, neither good or bad. Powerful, protective, follows orders. Powerful, protective, follows orders. Clumsy and dangerous, must be controlled. Clumsy and dangerous, must be controlled. Fallible = low expectations. Fallible = low expectations. Cant be blamed for mistakes if it is trying. Cant be blamed for mistakes if it is trying. Truth

30 The Snowball Effect Climate Science Uncertainties Other Uncertainties

31 Cascading Uncertainties in Climate Science Emission scenarios Carbon cycle response Global climate sensitivity Regional climate change scenarios Range of possible impacts Adapted from Schneider 1983

32 Scientists face important challenges in communicating science to non-scientists The nature of normal scientific investigation and debate The nature of normal scientific investigation and debate –logic vs. cognitive processes –adversarial, not focused on consensus development –debate primarily within disciplines Isolationism Isolationism –too busy to talk to non-scientists! –rift between physical and social scientists Inadequate training in communication skills Inadequate training in communication skills –dealing with media –addressing misinformation –understanding policy development process

33 Can complex science be understood by the public? Yes, many successful examples ! Yes, many successful examples ! Knowledge from Scientific process Knowledge from Scientific process Step-back, discuss and debunk science myths Step-back, discuss and debunk science myths –Myth 1: science as a collection of established facts –Myth 2: conflicting science presented in a balanced way –Myth 3: science jargon as chief obstacle

34 Interpretations of Global Climate Science Uncertainties Scientists: Scientists: intrinsic part of science intrinsic part of science too many variables to eliminate too many variables to eliminate can be reduced with more scientific information can be reduced with more scientific information general support of a precautionary approach. general support of a precautionary approach. Policymakers: Policymakers: science is sloppy science is sloppy burden of proof burden of proof lack of/incomplete knowledge = bad science lack of/incomplete knowledge = bad science must have all the facts: decision making/policy implementation must have all the facts: decision making/policy implementation little/no support of precautionary steps little/no support of precautionary steps

35 The Climate Uncertainty Toolbox Permutation tests Bootstrapping Resampling Stochastic models Monte Carlo Bayesian statistics Jackknife Deterministic models Neural networks Fisherian statistics Climate models Likelihood-based approaches Scenario analysis

36 Communicating Uncertainties of Climate Change Increase science literacy Increase science literacy Outreach materials: Hypothetical scientific investigations. Outreach materials: Hypothetical scientific investigations. Develop vivid narratives of potential harm Develop vivid narratives of potential harm Address/communicate uncertainties to stakeholder communities. Address/communicate uncertainties to stakeholder communities. Understand decision making mechanics, assess values and attitudes Understand decision making mechanics, assess values and attitudes Develop an integrative (social-natural science), participatory decision- making process Develop an integrative (social-natural science), participatory decision- making process Psychometric paradigm: people (focus on a range of qualitatively distinctive factors that are irreducible by numbers) show a richer rationality than experts (focus on quantity), risk perception in social sciences, used to explain divergence between risk related judgments Psychometric paradigm: people (focus on a range of qualitatively distinctive factors that are irreducible by numbers) show a richer rationality than experts (focus on quantity), risk perception in social sciences, used to explain divergence between risk related judgments People influenced by whether risk is catastrophic, future generations, involuntary incurred,, uncontrollable, delayed vs immediate, and particularly dreaded. People influenced by whether risk is catastrophic, future generations, involuntary incurred,, uncontrollable, delayed vs immediate, and particularly dreaded. Cass Sustein 2007: Columbia Law Review 107:

37 What are the likely climate changes over the next century, or so?? Most global warming projections are for a 4-10 F increase by 2100 Most global warming projections are for a 4-10 F increase by 2100 Virtually certain: ~ 95 to 100% Virtually certain: ~ 95 to 100% –Warmer days and nights, fewer cold periods over most land areas Very likely: ~ 67-95% Very likely: ~ 67-95% –Warm spells/heat waves, frequency increasing over most land areas –Heavy and more frequent precipitation events Likely: ~ 33-67% Likely: ~ 33-67% –Area affected by drought increases –Intense tropical cyclone activity increases –Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (exclude tsunamis)

38

39 Communicating Uncertainty: Examples from Weather Forecasts Numerical probabilities: Numerical probabilities: –A 30 % chance of rain. Qualitative or categorical forecasts: Qualitative or categorical forecasts: –Todays weather will be fine. Handmer et al. 2007

40 Communicating Uncertainty: Examples from Weather Forecasts Numerical probabilities: Numerical probabilities: –high likelihood, tangible events –can be misinterpreted: where? when? how long? –example: 30% chance of rain a 30% chance of rain in the forecast area. a 30% chance of rain in the forecast area. a 30% chance of rain at a specific location in forecast area. a 30% chance of rain at a specific location in forecast area. only 30% of the forecast area will be affected, if it does rain. only 30% of the forecast area will be affected, if it does rain. it will rain 30% of the day. it will rain 30% of the day. it will rain 3 out of 10 days when rain is forecasted it will rain 3 out of 10 days when rain is forecasted –not useful when: i.e % chance of as a severe event i.e % chance of as a severe event Abstract, invisible, even catastrophic events Abstract, invisible, even catastrophic events Public more concerned with issues of control, trust and equity Public more concerned with issues of control, trust and equity Handmer et al. 2007

41 Decision-making Under Uncertainty Decisions: based on likelihood of uncertain events based on likelihood of uncertain events –Uncertainties expressed numerical form (odds) numerical form (odds) subjective probabilistic statements subjective probabilistic statements heuristics heuristics –Representativeness – degree of relationship, causality –Availability – ease of instances/consequences imagined –Adjustment/Anchoring –initial value adjusted to yield final answer (problem formulation or partial computation) Tversky, A. and D. Kahneeman. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:

42 Decision-making Under Uncertainty Task of choice Task of choice –Framing Relate decision making to similar problems Relate decision making to similar problems Used to determine outcome loss or gains Used to determine outcome loss or gains –Evaluation Act to reduce loss probability, maximize gains Act to reduce loss probability, maximize gains Adopt risk averse stance Adopt risk averse stance 3 subconscious processes (heuristics): 3 subconscious processes (heuristics): –Representativeness – degree of relationship, causality –Availability – ease of instances/consequences imagined –Adjustment/Anchoring –initial value adjusted to yield final answer (problem formulation or partial computation) Patt, A. and S. Dessai. (2005). Communicating Uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment. C. R. Geoscience 337: Tversky, A. and D. Kahneeman. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:

43 Decision-making Under Uncertainty Stochastic uncertainties (unpredictability/surprises) Stochastic uncertainties (unpredictability/surprises) –Framing: (usually) in frequentist terms –Uncertainty: probability expressed relative frequencies –Heuristic: Availability = analogy –Evaluation: Less risk averse, under-estimate risk, less prone to illogical choice Epistemic uncertainties (structural/ignorance) Epistemic uncertainties (structural/ignorance) –Framing (often) in Bayesian terms –Uncertainties: ambiguous probability estimates, numerical ranges confidence, expert opinion –Heuristic: Representativeness = common, familiarity –Evaluation: More risk averse, over-estimate risk, more prone to logic errors Patt, A. and S. Dessai. (2005). Communicating Uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment. C. R. Geoscience 337: Tversky, A. and D. Kahneeman. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:

44 Decision-making Under Uncertainty Decisions: based on likelihood of uncertain events based on likelihood of uncertain events –Uncertainties expressed numerical form (odds) numerical form (odds) subjective probabilistic statements subjective probabilistic statements heuristics heuristics –Representativeness – degree of relationship, causality –Availability – ease of instances/consequences imagined –Adjustment/Anchoring –initial value adjusted to yield final answer (problem formulation or partial computation) Tversky, A. and D. Kahneeman. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:

45 Graphical Communication of Uncertain Quantities to Non-Technical People Risk Analysis 7 (4) Ibrekk et al * 9 graphical representations of the same snow fall predictions *

46 Communicating Uncertainty: Examples from Weather Forecasts Qualitative or categorical forecasts: Qualitative or categorical forecasts: –Fine –Also misinterpreted: does it mean No rain? No rain? Sunny/sunshine? Sunny/sunshine? Not too hot/moderate temperature? Not too hot/moderate temperature? Clear day/ not cloudy or overcast? Clear day/ not cloudy or overcast? Lovely weather/a nice day? Lovely weather/a nice day? No wind/light winds? No wind/light winds? Some cloud/may be overcast? Some cloud/may be overcast? Handmer et al. 2007

47 Communicating Uncertainty: When Uncertainties are Insurmountable Scenarios Scenarios –Coherent, plausible, alternative representations of future climate –Projections/modeled responses (not forecasts) from climate drivers. –Descriptions: current states, drivers, step-wise changes, future images. –Assessments future climate conditions (very high uncertainties). –Assist in designing adaptation/mitigation strategies –Provide better understanding of interactions/dynamics

48 Outreach: Uncertainties of Climate Change Increase science literacy Increase science literacy vivid narratives of potential harm/benefits vivid narratives of potential harm/benefits Communicate uncertainties to stakeholder communities. Communicate uncertainties to stakeholder communities. Assess values and attitudes Assess values and attitudes Develop an integrative (social-natural science) decision-making process Develop an integrative (social-natural science) decision-making process Psychometric paradigm: people (focus on a range of qualitatively distinctive factors that are irreducible by numbers) show a richer rationality than experts (focus on quantity), risk perception in social sciences, used to explain divergence between risk related judgments Psychometric paradigm: people (focus on a range of qualitatively distinctive factors that are irreducible by numbers) show a richer rationality than experts (focus on quantity), risk perception in social sciences, used to explain divergence between risk related judgments People influenced by whether risk is catastrophic, future generations, involuntary incurred,, uncontrollable, delayed vs immediate, and particularly dreaded. People influenced by whether risk is catastrophic, future generations, involuntary incurred,, uncontrollable, delayed vs immediate, and particularly dreaded.

49 An Interesting Expert Opinion: An Essay: Divergent American Reactions to Terrorism and Climate Change Terrorism: low probability, palpable, catastrophic low probability, palpable, catastrophic risks are immediate, short term risks are immediate, short term Concern to US, Britain an allies. Concern to US, Britain an allies. Perceived high risk recurrence Perceived high risk recurrence neglect probability visual anger, fear, neglect probability visual anger, fear, Huge costs justified to protect national security benefits unimportant Huge costs justified to protect national security benefits unimportant : $255 $318 billion committed to war on terror vs $312 billion for entire Kyoto protocol : $255 $318 billion committed to war on terror vs $312 billion for entire Kyoto protocol. Public opinion Public opinion – % Britons: top global priority – % Americans top global priority Climate change: high probability, impalpable, catastrophic high probability, impalpable, catastrophic Long-term risk, affect future generations. Long-term risk, affect future generations. Concern to other nations only Concern to other nations only serious mitigative/adaptive action unlikley serious mitigative/adaptive action unlikley climate change causes obscure (uncertainties) climate change causes obscure (uncertainties) people lack experience make risks apparent, real or impending, people lack experience make risks apparent, real or impending, cost benefits, cost benefits, Public opinion Public opinion –2000 CC: ranked environment as 16 th most important issue and 12 th out of 13 top environmental problems –2004: 63% Britons: top global environmental issue. Cass Sustein 2007: Columbia Law Review 107: Similarities: potentially catastrophic outcomes, difficulty assigning probabilities to risks Divergence: simple facts and political responses to each risk:

50 We have to deal with this new type of threat [terrorism] in a new way we havent yet defined.. With a low-probability, high impact event like this.. if there is a 1% chance that Pakistani nuclear scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response -- Dick Cheney, Former Vice-President Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today - more serious than the threat from terrorism – Sir David King Director, Smith School of Environment, Oxford; Research Director, Dept. of Physical Chemistry, Cambridge; Former Chief Scientific Advisor to Blair Administration. An Interesting Expert Opinion: An Essay: Divergent American Reactions to Terrorism and Climate Change Cass Sustein 2007: Columbia Law Review 107:

51 Any philosophy that in its quest for certainty ignores the reality of the uncertain in the ongoing processes of nature, denies the conditions out of which it arises. John Dewey, The Quest for Certainty, 1929 Epilogue

52 And now, the punch line(s)…… Climate change uncertainties: tremendous outreach challenges Climate change uncertainties: tremendous outreach challenges Uncertainties are cumulative: science to policy Uncertainties are cumulative: science to policy Climate change predictions: probabilistic context where possible. Climate change predictions: probabilistic context where possible. Scenarios: address insurmountable uncertainties. Scenarios: address insurmountable uncertainties. Integrative natural and social science approach to decision- making. Integrative natural and social science approach to decision- making. Outreach: science mechanics, sources of uncertainty, restore faith in science, assess/understand heuristics, facilitate improved decision-making, craft a responsible, informative and useful message. Outreach: science mechanics, sources of uncertainty, restore faith in science, assess/understand heuristics, facilitate improved decision-making, craft a responsible, informative and useful message.


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