Presentation on theme: "Energy Security: A Global Perspective Bob Tippee, Editor, Oil & Gas Journal International Energy Policy Conference October 25, 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Energy Security: A Global Perspective Bob Tippee, Editor, Oil & Gas Journal International Energy Policy Conference October 25, 2012
Security relativism ImportersExporters Security of supplySecurity of demand Affordable, stable price Adequate, stable price
Importers concerns Disruption to supply, economic disturbance – To influence geopolitics – Due to internal disruption – Due to natural disasters Price manipulation, shocks, volatility Non-commodity costs – Defense of producers, trade routes – Strategic storage (US ~ $200 MM/year) How does all this constrain foreign policy?
Oil trade choke points Source: US Energy Information Administration
The need for OPEC crude (MMbd) PMT=protracted market tightness; PSM=prolonged soft market; DAU=dynamics as usual. Source: OPEC Long-Term Strategy OPECs investment requirements in 2010-20 could range from less than $200 billion to around $400 billion.
Responses1 Importers – International Energy Agency – Established 1974; 28 members of OECD – Strategic storage – Information Exporters: International Energy Forum – First meeting, 1991; charter, 2011; 88 members – Producer-consumer dialogue – Information
Responses2 Saudi-US relationship – US defends Saudi Arabia, trade routes – Saudi Arabia assures supply Moderation of OPEC price hawkishness Maintenance of 1.5-2 million b/d spare capacity
IEA-strategic storage Stocks to cover 90 days of net imports July 2012 coverage – Total IEA: 187 days (111 industry, 96 public) – IEA net importers: 151 days (87 industry, 64 public) Cooperation with non-IEA China, India, several ASEAN members
IEA stock withdrawal capacity Venezuela, Nigeria Iraq, Iran Saudi Arabia, Russia Largest disruption: Iranian revolution 1978-79, 5.6 MMbd
IEA coordinated withdrawals EventLost supply 1991 Gulf War4.3 million b/d 2005 hurricanes1.5 million b/d 2011 Libyan disruption1.6 million b/d Comparable disruptions have not triggered withdrawals: i.e., Iran-Iraq war 1980 (4.1 MMbd); 2001 disruption of Iraqi exports (2.1 MMbd); 2003 Venezuelan strike (2.6 MMbd); 2003 invasion of Iraq (2.3 MMbd)
IEAinformation Oil Market Report (monthly) World Energy Outlook (annual) Individual member energy-policy reviews Statistics Books Others
IEFproducer-consumer dialogue Biennial ministerial forums Business forums – Precede ministerial forums – Bilateral ministerial meetings NOC-IOC forums (two so far) IEA-IEF-OPEC symposia on energy outlooks IEA-IEF-OPEC joint workshops and regulators forums (physical-financial market dialogue)
IEFinformation: JODI Joint Organizations (ex-Oil) Data Initiative Data exchange; about 100 participants Evolution – IEF ministers 2000 – APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD – IEF Secretariat assumed responsibility 2005 – JODI World Database unveiled 2005
JODI basic questionnaire 42 data points Participants supposed to submit on 25 th of month for two most recent months. Respondents vary in submission, timeliness, completeness.
JODI expanded questionnaire Work in progress since 2007.
Global shift 1: oil demand (MMbd) Source: International Energy Agency, Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012
Global shift 2: refining (MMbd) *From existing projects Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook, 2011 Total capacity additions: 6.8 MMbd
Global shift 3: supply (MMbd) Source: Maugeri, Leonardo, Oil: The Next Revolution, Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center for Science and International affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2012.
Global shift 3: supply (cont.) Note: Before adjustments for depletion, reserves growth; excludes currently producing fields unless under extensive redevelopment. Unrestricted =total planned Adjusted=after accounting for risk factors. Source: Maugeri, Leonardo, Oil: The Next Revolution, Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center for Science and International affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2012.
OPEC median budget breakeven crude oil price From Stevens, Paul, Oil Prices, Energy Investment, Political Stability in the Export Countries and OPECs Dilemma, Chatham House, October 2012
Observations-1 IEA: – Focused on OECDwaning consumption, imports – Oriented to strategic storage – Well-developed information scheme IEF: – Broader compass, producers and consumers – Oriented to cooperation – Developing information scheme
Observations-2 Importers deploy oil weapon more than exporters Supply threats come from nature, internal politics of key exporters Production growth lowering supply vulnerability in Western Hemisphere… …But supply disruption anywhere hurts developed countries everywhere
Conclusions Market shifts softening IEA-OPEC opposition Strategic storage remains supply-shock buffer Value of strategic storage as deterrent to exporter use of oil weapon has diminished Supply security comes mainly from mutuality of buyer-seller interests Role of producer-consumer cooperation in energy security will grow
Questions Will US, others acknowledge changes? Will new W. Hemisphere supply raise questions re costs of storage, trade-route defense? Will Arab Spring issues liberalize or harden exporter regimes? How much will exporters pay for stability? How will changes affect US-Saudi bilateralism?