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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

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Presentation on theme: "NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)"— Presentation transcript:

1 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M) Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22% Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%

2 CORE LOGIC IN 2012: Total Homes Sales Increased 6% Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11% REO Sales Declined 20% (3 rd consecutive decline) Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9% Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)

3 GLAR MLS 2012 Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011) Houses Sold on MLS vs.11 15,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12, % Median Sales Price vs % Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in 12 vs. 11

4 PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA National MSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yr Birmingham, AL % % Charlotte, NC % % Cincinnati, OH % % Cleveland, OH % % Columbus, OH % % Dayton, OH % % Houston, TX % % Indianapolis, IN % % Knoxville, TN % % Memphis, TN % % Louisville, KY % % Oklahoma City % % Portland, OR % % Raleigh, NC % % Richmond, VA % % Seattle, WA % % Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

5 TOP 20 MSA LARGEST 5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES Las Vegas, NV-54.3% Vallejo, CA-45.6% Stockton, CA-44.9% Daytona Beach, FL-44.3% Reno, NV-44.0% Orlando, FL-42.8% Ocala, FL-42.7% Salvias, CA-41.7% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL-41.6% Riverside – San Bernadine, CA-41.3% Port St. Lucie, FL-40.9% Yuba City, CA-40.7% Naples – Marco Island, FL-40.1% Visalia, CA-39.8% Ft. Lauderdale, FL-39.0% Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL-38.8% Fresno, CA-38.5% Phoenix, AZ-38.4% Bradenton – Sarasota, FL-38.0% West Palm Beach, FL-37.8% Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL-37.8% Louisville, KY-2.8% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

6 Residential Building Permits vs 11 Jefferson Oldham Shelby Spencer Bullitt % Clark Floyd Harrison % 8-County Total 2, % Note: Nelson % Hardin % Source: The Market Edge

7 Residential Building Permit 2012 Market Comparison %CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs LouisvilleKY42.5% LexingtonKY33.1% EvansvilleIN24.3% AshevilleNC21.5% CharlotteNC30.4% FayettevilleNC HickoryNC12.3% TriadNC 3.2% RaleighNC31.8% UpstateNC32.1% ChattanoogaTN27.7% KnoxvilleTN23.9% Tri-CitiesTN -4.5% Source: The Market Edge

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10 Improving Markets Index

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15 Permits

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17 Source: local government permitting departments J11J111 F MAMJJASONDJ 12 FMAMJJASONDJ 13 F -27.7% -18% -11.7% -22.5% -2.4% 59.6% 34.2% 13.2% -1.2% 97.5% 49.5% 48.8% 29.9% 38.6% 52.6%

18 NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTS WHAT HOME BUYERS REALLY WANT The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers 47% want three bedrooms 32% want four bedrooms 57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home 31% prefer two stories Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

19 60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement 48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2 nd floor 70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1 st floor Buyers focus on Quality & Appearance where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc. while… When looking at appliances, the focus is on Quality & Brand Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

20 In the Kitchen: A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers In the Bathroom: An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

21 When Rating Windows: 67% want energy star rated windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass Decorative Features: 88% Want ceiling fans 60% Want built-in shelving and ceiling crown molding Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

22 Laundry Room: 57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it 36% Find it desirable Garage Storage: 32% Rate it essential 54% Desirable Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

23 The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features: 90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable 83% Patio 80% Front porch Master Bath Location: 45% Essential 36% Desirable Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

24 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

25 Location of choice for new home buyers: Central City – 8 % Close-in Suburbs – 30% Outlying Suburb – 38% Rural Area – 27 % and small towns Community features to seriously influence the buying decision: Walking/Jogging Trails – 60% Park Area- 54% Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50% Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

26 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors More Professional & Credible Provide better quality work and craftmanship Provide better service levels More Reliable Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor: 1.Reputation for quality construction 2.Reputation for completing projects on budget Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

27 Type of Home Preferred (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

28 Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group 31% 54% 36% 49% 32%54% 48% 40% 35%54% 39% 51% 41% 49% 53%37% 28%63% 57%36% 58%

29 Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group 6% 27% 6% 31% 21% 39% 17% 45% 21% 51% 22%55% 29%49% 26%54% 27% 56% 41%49%

30 Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

31 A full bath on the main level Non-slip floor surfaces An entrance without steps Bathroom aids, such as grab bars or seating in shower Accessibility Features - History (Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012 and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

32 Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division (Percent of Respondents ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

33 Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers to Choose a Community (Percent of Respondents ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

34 Walking/jogging trails Park area Outdoor swimming pool36 50 Lake Exercise room Convenience Storen/a2832 Drug Storen/a2832 Playgrounds Public transportation Clubhouse21 26 Security guard at gate Card-operated gate, no guard Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History (Percent of Respondents )

35 Tennis courts10 17 Arts and Craftsn/a714 Basketball courts9813 Business center17813 Billiard room9612 Daycare center989 Baseball/ softball field869 Soccer field546 Racquetball courts436 Equestrian facilitiesn/a35 Other11136 Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont. (Percent of Respondents )

36 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY

37 61%Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants 78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work important in choosing where to live. 88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house. Important Choice Decisions 77%Sidewalks and places to take a walk 75%High quality public schools Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey

38 Importance of Community Characteristics

39 Preferred Versus Actual Community Type Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey 22% 16% 14% 18% 19% 12% 26% 28% 19% 11% 5% 8%

40 Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey


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