Presentation on theme: "Continuous Improvement in CBM"— Presentation transcript:
1Continuous Improvement in CBM What is it?How do we measure it?How do we make it happen?
2Continuous improvement in predictive maintenance First we define the Conditional Probability Density Function.ConditionalProbabilityDensityFunction,CPDFt0Working ageCurrent time
3First we define the Conditional (Probability) Density Function It is like the Probability Density Function. Only it is calculated at the current moment in time, and it takes into account the current age and the current condition of the item.ConditionalDensityFunctiont0Working ageCurrent time
4Next we define the Conditional MTBF Is the well-known MTBF, except that it is measured from the current moment. That is, the state from which one needs to make an on-condition maintenance decision.ConditionalDensityFunctiont0Working ageCurrent time
5Remaining Useful Life Estimate (RULE) The Conditional MTBF is also known as the RULE (Remaining Useful Life Estimate).ConditionalDensityFunctionRULEt0Working ageCurrent time
6Predictive performance is measured by the standard deviation. One performance measure of a predictive maintenance program is the spread of the distribution around the mean (i.e. around the RULE). This spread is quantified by the standard deviation.ConditionalDensityFunctionRULEt0Working ageCurrent time
7Continuous improvement in predictive maintenance Continuous measurable improvement in the RULE occurs over time as more experience is gathered. Not only is the RULE adjusted, but the spread narrows.ConditionalDensityFunctionImproved RULEt0Working ageCurrent time
8Continuous improvement in predictive maintenance And narrows further.The RULE improves.Confidence in prediction increases in a measurable way so that it may be reported as a CBM “KPI”.ConditionalDensityFunctionImproved RULEt0Working ageCurrent time
9RULE and Standard Deviation reported in EXAKT Every time the EXAKT decision agent runs it reports the RULE and the standard deviation.
10How do we improve confidence in Predictive Maintenance? By reporting both failures and suspensions when closing work orders.By continuously improving the RCM knowledge base when closing work orders.By linking work orders to RCM knowledge records.By generating samples from the CMMS.By applying reliability analysis techniques including EXAKT.These steps describe the LRCM process.