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The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Whats New in the LMI World Nevadas Perspective.

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Presentation on theme: "The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Whats New in the LMI World Nevadas Perspective."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Whats New in the LMI World Nevadas Perspective Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Frank R. Woodbeck, Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau for the Second Annual EMSI ConferenceSeptember 2012

2 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevadas Recession Scorecard: Unemployment Rate Despite the fact that it has come down from all-time highs, Nevadas jobless rate is 6.8 percentage points higher than at the official start of the recession in December The U.S. unemployment rate stands 3.3 points higher than at the start of the recession.

3 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA) In July, Nevada maintained the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Rhode Island was second-highest, at 10.8%. North Dakotas three percent jobless rate was the lowest.

4 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevadas Recession Scorecard: Non-Farm Jobs (SA) Nevadas job losses since the official start of the recession in December 2007 total 158K (-12.2%). Over the same period, U.S. jobs are down 3.4%. 400K jobs were created in Nevada between 1997 and 2007.

5 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Number of States with Higher Rates of Job Growth than Nevada (year-over-year; 2012 data are for June) As of June, just 19 states had a higher job growth rate than NV. Over the period, NV had the highest growth in the nation. At the height of the recession, every other state had a higher rate of job growth than NV.

6 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency In Nevada, We Need Information & Intelligence, Not Just Data

7 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Las Vegas Strip Casino Revenue: Gaming vs. Nongaming (share of total revenue; by fiscal year) The traditional gaming industry in Nevada has diversified. In FY 2011, 62% of Las Vegas Strip casino revenue was from nongaming sources (rooms, food/beverage, etc.), and that share has been consistently on the rise. Gaming revenue accounts for just 38% of the total, down significantly from a 59% share in FY 1989.

8 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Current Population Survey Results

9 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization (four quarters ending 2012:IIQ) U-3 similar in scope to the official rate. U-4 includes discouraged workers. U-6 includes all persons available for work whom are only marginally attached to the labor force plus involuntary part-time workers.

10 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency NV Labor Force Participation Rate (labor force / population; 12-month moving average) Nevadas labor force participation rate has been trending down in recent years, although there has been considerable volatility. In late-2008, the LFPR peaked at nearly 70%. In the 12 months ending in May, 65.1% of the population was in the labor force (either employed or unemployed).

11 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Discouraged Workers in Nevada (12-month moving average) The number of discouraged workers skyrocketed during the recession…an eight-fold increase. While the increase appears to be easing, there are still 16K discouraged workers in the State.

12 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Unemployment Duration in Nevada (12-month average) Roughly half of unemployed Nevadans half been without work for more than 26 weeks. This has the potential for long-term implications.

13 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Information From Unemployment Insurance Programs

14 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Initial claims totaled 18,700 in July, barely up from a year ago. This represents the first increase in more than 2.5 years. Claims activity during the first week in August was down 12.8% from a year ago, suggesting that Julys results are likely not the start of a trend. Claims activity during the recession peaked in excess of 36,000.

15 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Total Unemployment Insurance Claims vs. the Total Number of Unemployed There were approximately 65,600 Nevadans submitting UI claims in July. 34,700 were regular UI claims; 30,900 fell under a variety of extension programs. Of the 172,000 Nevadans estimated to be unemployed in July, 38%, were receiving benefits. In the first half of 2008, 46% of those counted as unemployed received benefits. At its peak, the coverage ratio exceeded 70%.

16 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Unemployment Insurance Benefit Coverage Ratio (share of unemployed receiving benefits) After peaking at over 70% in early 2009, the UI coverage ratio (45.5%) is nearly back to its average 2007 level (41.3%). Extended UI benefits provide more than half of this coverage, as regular benefits cover just 21.6% of unemployed Nevadans. The fall in regular benefit coverage is explained in part by the presence of extended benefits and in part by long-term unemployment, which has reduced the number of people eligible for new UI claims.

17 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Business Employment Dynamics Insights

18 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada Labor Market Dynamics: Gross Job Gains and Losses (SA) Typically, our monthly analyses focus on net job growth or loss. Beneath the surface, there is considerable activity taking place. During the recession, gross job gains at expanding or opening private sector establishments tumbled noticeably, while gross job losses at closing or contracting establishments spiked. As the States labor market improved, albeit haltingly, gross gains have stabilized, while gross losses are easing down. In last years fourth quarter (the most recent data available), gross job gains were about 57,500 and losses were about 55,200.

19 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Local Employment Dynamics Information

20 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Employment: Year Olds Employment trends suggest Nevada teens were hit very hard by the recession. Employment levels (based upon official wage records) have essentially been cut in half…from a pre-recession peak of more than 46K to just above 20K.

21 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Employment by Industry: Year Olds (four quarters ending 2011:IIQ) Just five industries account of more than three-fourths of teen employment in Nevada. Two industriesaccommodation/food services and retail tradeaccount for nearly two-thirds of teen employment.

22 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada Average Monthly Earnings: All Workers vs. New Hires In examining wages and earnings, the focus is often on some measure of average earnings. It is important to note that wages for new hires tend to be below the average. Specifically, new hire earnings (measured on a monthly basis) tend to be about two- thirds of the overall average.

23 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Last, But Not Least, We have the Labor Market Intelligence Provided via EMSI To date, EMSI resources have been used to support and inform the States new focus on economic development.

24 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Job Growth by Training Level Over the next several years, jobs with higher-level training requirements are expected to grow the fastest. Jobs requiring a two-year associates degree are projected to show the most growth in percentage terms. The largest number of available job openings will continue to be found in occupations requiring on-the-job training (about 4,800 per year).

25 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevadas Changing Economic Structure via Location Quotients A measure of relative importance. NV job share/national job share. LQ>1 implies greater concentration in NV. LQ<1 implies less concentration in NV. Notable trends: accommodation/food services three times more important in NV than in U.S. (but declining) construction has been hit hard; LQ much closer to one health care is growing, but job share is still only about two-thirds of the national average public sector employment in NV only about 80% of U.S. average

26 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Top-Ten High Growth, High Concentration, High Wage Industries ( ) Despite the impacts of the recession, there have been some Nevada success stories. While overall job levels trended down, several showed growth over the past half- decade. In total, the top-ten high job growth, high concentration (a greater share of NV employment is in these industries than in the nation), high wage industries added more than 10,500 jobs between 2006 and 2011.

27 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Ten Nevada Industries with the Largest "Competitive Job Shares" Shift-Share analyses identify that share of industry job growth in a region that is likely due to national trends (expected change), including trends specific to that industry, and region-specific trends (competitive share). Temporary help services had the largest competitive share in Nevada last year. In all, this industry added 1,800 jobs last year1,200 were expected given broader trends at the national level and 600 (the competitive share) were due to trends specific to Nevada. All told, the ten industries in Nevada with the largest competitive shares grew 7.2%, nearly three times faster than their national growth rate2.5%. Several of the industries with the smallest competitive shares were those impacted most by the recessioncommercial building, commercial banking, local government, electrical contractors, etc.

28 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Health and Medical Services Sector Employment Growth: Ten Fastest Growing Industries The HMS Sector weathered the recent recession better than others. All told, approximately 8,200 jobs were added between 2007 and Of the 41 detailed industries within the sector, all but 13 grew over the period. Of the decliners, only one, medical laboratories, had a significant loss (-400 jobs).

29 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Tourism/Gaming/Entertainment Employment Growth by Sub-Sector Within the broadly-defined Nevada TGE sector, most sub-sectors have added jobs. In some cases, gains have been considerable. Food/drinking establishments have added 34K jobs in the past decade. The retail trade and non-casino lodging sub-sectors each added about 7K employees to payroll. The most notable drop came in the gaming sub-sector, where 26K positions were cut.

30 The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau Bill Anderson Chief Economist (775) follow us on


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