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Allaboutxpert.com Cape Town t: +27 21 510 8655 / 552 0143 f: +27 21 510 8940 / 086 682 4035 Johannesburg t: +27 11 549 8600 f: +27 11 549 8635 Client support:0860.

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Presentation on theme: "Allaboutxpert.com Cape Town t: +27 21 510 8655 / 552 0143 f: +27 21 510 8940 / 086 682 4035 Johannesburg t: +27 11 549 8600 f: +27 11 549 8635 Client support:0860."— Presentation transcript:

1 allaboutxpert.com Cape Town t: / f: / Johannesburg t: f: Client support:0860 aboutp ( ) Copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Directors: Dee Alho, Ayob Alli, Dana Brennan, Ada de Wet, Dennis Grant, Mark Jurgens (Non-Executive), Graham Moore, Matthew Pitman, Nic Walters Registration Number:1995/012254/07 Estimation SPR Introduction

2 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Building a Business Case for Estimation 2

3 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Staggering Stats The Standish Group Chaos report shows: 31.1% of projects will be cancelled before they ever get completed. 52.7% of projects will cost 189% of their original estimates. The cost of these failures and overruns are just the tip of the iceberg. The lost opportunity costs are not measurable, but could easily be in the trillions of dollars. Only 16.2% for software projects that are completed on-time and on-budget.. Even when these projects are completed, many are no more than a mere shadow of their original specification requirements. Projects completed by the largest American companies have only approximately 42% of the originally- proposed features and functions. The above findings have been consistent for the last 25 years

4 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation Why do we need to estimate? To work out how much effort & cost might be involved to deliver a project often based on incomplete input data that may be incomplete or uncertain. To plan To run through scenarios to determine feasibility Why is estimation of software projects difficult? Types of Estimation technique may be based on developer opinion, apply Methods like function block counting or broadband delphi or use Rules of Thumb - all are mostly based on guesswork, personality and resource experience, can be time consuming and are often inconsistently applied. Accurate software estimating is too difficult for simple rules of thumb. ~ Capers Jones, 1991 How do we introduce more accurate estimation? Through the introduction of a method to determine the size of the functionality (function point analysis) to be delivered by a software project and using this as a base from which effort to deliver functionality can be estimated. This can allow for a more scientific approach and consistently applied process to estimating effort and cost.

5 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Generic Problem Statement (Summary) There is no standard estimation process Project managers make use of their own tools, methods and processes to come up with estimates. These are therefore inconsistent and often dependant on the experience and knowledge of the Project Manager There is no central repository for recording estimates Assumptions therefore cannot be traced and this problem is compounded by turnover of project management staff. Initial estimates that drive the initial budgeting process tend to be significantly lower then final budget/actuals. History shows the Projects planned for the release miss their release dates. This will increase costs and project delivery timelines. A large percentage of active projects have no baseline in place. Estimation is inconsistent and ever changing

6 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Generic Problem Statement - Detail People Lack of clarity around who does the estimates and who is responsible for the estimates Skills not adequate to deliver accurate estimates Limited understanding of the estimation process and terminology Process Business do not understand the estimation process and their input into this process. Lack of clearly defined scope management process and principles from an estimation perspective Estimation is dependant on the forecasting and budgeting process, which is financially driven rather than size driven. Systems Lack of historical information Lack of industry benchmarks Lack of a central repository for storing estimations and assumptions. Practice Estimation process is dependant on the requirements process, which is new and slowly maturing within the many environments. No standards exist in terms of sizing (Function Point count) The above issues result in variances in time, cost and effort when compared to actuals

7 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR KnowledgePlan SPR KnowledgePLAN ® Formal Software Project Estimation

8 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR History Software Productivity Research (SPR) was founded in 1984 by Capers Jones, an internationally recognized consultant, speaker, author and seminar leader in the field of software management. SPR is a worldwide provider of consulting services that enable organizations to compete more effectively through the predictable, on-time delivery of high-quality software by focusing on software estimation, measurement, and assessment. Their services help companies manage the software development process for maximum productivity, performance, and quality. SPRs clients include many of the Global 1000 companies, representing all major software environments including systems, IT, commercial, military, and government. They focus on capturing and analyzing the software practices of Best in Class organizations - those recognized for outstanding quality and service. In addition, they help software organizations achieve higher performance as they progress on the road to excellence. Headquartered in Hendersonville, North Carolina, with representation throughout the US, South America, Europe, Asia and now Africa, SPR has unparalleled expertise in estimation, benchmarking, measurement, function point analysis, and process assessment. They have been providing superior products and services in these areas longer than any other company in the field today, and they use this experience effectively to enhance our clients' capabilities.

9 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd What is SPR KnowledgePLAN? KnowledgePLAN is a parametric estimation tool that uses historical data about projects correlated to Function Point size to produce detailed, bottom-up (micro estimation) predictions of software projects With SPR KnowledgePLAN you can: Determine SIZE - size your projects using three possible sizing methods Effort - Produce an estimate of effort, cost and resource required for a software project. Estimate Quality - Predict the total number of defects that will be introduced during various stages of the project Project Factors - Assess the influence of project factors such as product size and complexity, team skill sets, management style, tools, languages, methods, quality practices, and office environment Scenario Play - SPR KnowledgePLAN allows a software project to explore the cost/value implications of additional resources, more powerful languages, development tools, improved methods and other technical changes.

10 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR Knowledge Base Project Size Project Classification Project Type Large 23% Medium 50% Small 27% Enhancement 48% New 31% Maintenance 21% Systems 30% IT 45% Other 16% Commercial 10% 14,531 projects in Version 4.3 (2009) 10

11 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR KnowledgePLAN - Overview WBSSoftware Project Types Environmental AttributesSizing Methods

12 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Key stages to Estimation How does KnowledgePLAN support a 4 stage estimation process SizingComplexityCapabilityProcess How big?How difficult? Mitigated by tools and languages How capable? RISK must be properly assessed Which tasks? Waterfall Agile RUP Iterative-Spiral DSDM

13 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR Sizing Sizing by Analogy Estimates can be made against a variety of software products in the table, further categorized by size (small/medium/large) The portions of enhancement projects that are New, Enhancement, Maintenance, and Conversion effort are recorded here Sizing by Components Use a multi-tiered approach to sizing Estimate built from known values Approximation accuracy approaches that of FPA Combine with Size by Metric when more is known Sizing by Metrics Sizing can be input by various metrics: Function Points (Recommended) IFPUG/NESMA COSMIC FFP Mark II Object Points Estimated Function Points Technical (approximation) Function Points Logical System Lines of Code SPR support three different types of sizing methods. This allows organizations to align methods to specific inputs into estimation that become available through the Project Lifecycle More than projects in the Knowledge Base Sizing Complexity Capability Process

14 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation Stage - Complexity Complexity factors are rated for projects Sizing Complexity Capability Process Algorithmic (Problem) complexity Correction for effort within the application boundary Structural (Code) complexity Quantitative scale describes recursive statements High complexity somewhat mitigated by high-level languages/skills Relational (Data) complexity Extent of data organization complexity High complexity somewhat mitigated by data modeling

15 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation Stage - Capability Sizing Complexity Capability Process Technology Process Environment Personnel SOFTWARE QUALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY Product Personnel Experience and skills of: managers, developers, users Technology Software tools and platform issues Process Development methods, quality assurance, testing, documentation Product Hardware and software requirements, constraints, and architectures Environment Organization, office and physical environment

16 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation Stage- Process Tasks are selected by the model and may be adjusted TASK CATEGORY Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 TASK CATEGORY Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 TASK CATEGORY Task 1 Task 2 TASK CATEGORY Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Requirements Designs Code Test cases Documentation Projects are made up of tasks for which deliverables are predicted based on historical information in each task category 134 task categories are available in the tool Sizing Complexity Capability Process

17 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Reporting 17 Detailed reporting allows for easy interrogation of data

18 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd SPR Limitations It is not a substitute for good planning (it is only a part of it) Project managers still need to: Discuss, agree and monitor delivery with project resources Manage dependencies, issues and risks Manage their project calendar and resources pool Keep their plans updated and relevant! The tool has its limitations and cannot estimate: Estimate projects with no sizeable software development(SDLC) components Estimate on peripheral constraints and impacts to project cost and duration outside of what can be captured into the Tool (i.e.: infrastructural changes, resource unavailability, Fixed/CAPEX costs, delays, freeze periods).

19 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation - Processes 19

20 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd When do we estimate in the Innovation lifecycle & why? High Level DesignDetailed DesignBuild, Test, FixImplementation E Innovation Project Lifecycle Stage In Process: Middle of Detailed Design (DD) which implies - no later than 6 weeks into Detail Design / End of Detail Design Reason for Estimation For input around time, cost & effort estimates into the business case Reason for Estimation To review & revise the execution budget. To provide time, cost & effort estimates. Reason Actual vs Estimate Analysis To understand actuals & perform variance analysis from earlier phases in order to understand route cause of variances. To record historical data for future use by estimations of other similar projects going forward. EE Stage In Process: End of High Level Design Stage In Process: Release into Production Idea Cloud / Concept Evaluation Estimation by Analogy to assist with Pre-Execution Budget. Stage In Process: Beginning of the idea/concept phase. E Optional Mandatory

21 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd What are the key inputs & documents? High Level DesignDetailed DesignBuild, Test, FixImplementation E Inputs / documents EE Idea Cloud / Concept Evaluation HL Business Requirements HL Architectural Design Component Model Process Definition Architectural Design Functional Specification Technical Specification Updated Documents Estimation outputs Component count (avg complexity) Analogy Estimate Produced Function point count (detailed complexity) Tracked project Actuals vs Est. Estimation & Estimation report created New Idea Logged Approved Business case Business Requirements Specification n Project Close- out Estimation EAQ Estimation EAQ Estimation EAQ

22 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd What technique do we use for estimation? High Level Design Detailed DesignBuild, Test, FixImplementation E Stage In Process: End of High Level Design Stage In Process: Middle of Detailed Design / End of Detailed Design Stage In Process: Release into Production Technique – Component Compile estimation input from all areas and collate for overall time & effort. Inputs from other Group Technology areas: High Level Work Breakdown Structure with expert based estimation Technique – Metric (FP count) Detailed documentation Detailed Work Breakdown Structure Technique Actuals versus Estimated tracking and comparison based off Function Point Counting Looking at actual project schedule Capture Actual value EE Idea Cloud / Concept Evaluation Stage In Process: Beginning of the concept phase Technique - Analogy Optionally– using to size and estimate projects where very littlie information is available. Innovation Project Lifecycle

23 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd What are our confidence factors for estimation in the different phases of the lifecycle? High Level DesignDetailed DesignBuild, Test, FixImplementation E Stage In Process: End of High Level Design Stage In Process: Middle of Detailed Design / End of Detailed Design Stage In Process: Release into Production E E Estimation Confidence Factor 50 – 60% Estimation Confidence Factor Middle of Detailed Design = 60% End of Detailed Design = 85% Estimation Confidence Factor Actual = 100% Idea Cloud / Concept Evaluation E Innovation Project Lifecycle Estimation Confidence Factor % Stage In Process: Beginning of the Concept Phase PLAYPEN (Existing Process apply)

24 copyright © 2011:all content is the copyright of X-Pert Group (pty) ltd and/or allabout projectmanagement (pty) ltd Estimation confidence 20% CONFIDENCE 40% 60% 85% ANALOGY METRIC (COMPONENT) METRIC Detailed Design Build, Test, FixImplementation High Level Design Idea Cloud/ Concept Evaluation


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