Presentation on theme: "Future Flow From Dystopia to Plutopia Derek Woodgate PREPARED FOR"— Presentation transcript:
1Future Flow From Dystopia to Plutopia Derek Woodgate PREPARED FOR NOVEMBER, 2010From Dystopia to Plutopia
2Discontinuous change-"The future is not fixed, but it is a destination that can be reached if we pursue a sustained dialogue like the one that you will commence today, and act on what we hear and what we learn.”- Barack Hussein Obama II, President of the United States of America
3Fear of the futureTwo-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…20062010
4America’s third worldThe number of Americans who see themselves among the "have-nots" of society has doubled over the past two decades, from 17% in 1988 to 34% today.U.S. Government Says one in six (45 Million) Americans Below Poverty Sept. 2010In 1988, far more Americans said that, if they had to choose, they probably were among the "haves" (59%) than the "have-nots" (17%). Today, this gap is far narrower (45% "haves" vs. 34% "have-nots").
5- Michael Patrick Bovenes Facing your fears-“The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man… It is important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self-doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform its energy into new power to augment a future that can resolve your negativity and fulfil your dreams and desires?“- Michael Patrick Bovenes
6FEAR! FEAR! The fear factor World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in 2100 from 6.5 billion todayIncreasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T KcalDecreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years - gone in next 50 (?)Lack of equity amongst social groupsNumber of known terrorist organizations: 154By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report)Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and droughtGlobal warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globallyThe World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030,FEAR!FEAR!it took over one million years to reach the one billion mark in the early 1800’s - after the 1960’s, the rate of population increase began to slow, and today it is showing dramatic decreasesalthough the acreage in the US devoted to agriculture has gone down slightly since 1910, the agricultural production increased 370%world food production has doubled in the past quarter centurythere’s good evidence to suggest that improved agricultural production should be able to feed a world population 2.3 times greater than today’s
7What a difference a decade makes!!!! “Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).
8Future Flow 2010Future Flow is about creating a path towards our anticipation for a positive future. The book deals with creating the future we want and expect in a world where our media and frequently even our realities enslave our minds with visions of impending doom.
9High impact Challenges and concerns Economic meltdownLack of equality amongst social groups / povertyClimate change, Resource scarcity and sustainabilityTerrorism and WarsEmerging technologies (cloning, bioengineering, etc.)Population explosion and agingFood supplyNatural disastersEpidemicsEthicsImmigration & migrationEducationHealthSocial disruptionTransformation of humankind
10Stairway to Heaven For every challenge there seems to be a solution: Nanotech for energy efficienciesFuel cells and renewable energyHuman augmentation, cognition and upskillingGraphene replacing chips / neuro / quantum computingPhotovoltaics and eco citiesAlternative habitatsFood substitution and virtual waterData walls and complex networked communitiesEven transhumanism and the SingularityThen, there is the other reality….I could talk for hours about solutions:
11Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened? “Dr. Doom” - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital in 2006:- “too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and savings…economy 70 percent consumption, you can’t address those imbalances without a recession.”- from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008, Americans lost $6.9 trillion in wealth in the stock markets. Gravest economic crisis since the Great Depression.Greed is seen to have been at the centre of the storm. Greed, supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets- toxic loans and foreclosures.- collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market- 10% unemployment (projected 8% in 2014)- $13 trillion debt (Public debt to GDP debt ratio)viewers on CNBC that the U.S. economy would be hampered by “too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and savings.”The US problems had a major global effect. For example, for the first quarter of 2009, the annualized rate of decline in GDP was 14.4% in Germany, 15.2% in Japan, 7.4% in the UK, 18% in Latvia, 9.8% in the Euro area and 21.5% for Mexico.” " By March 2009, the Arab world had lost $3 trillion due to the crisis. In April 2009, unemployment in the Arab world is said to be a 'time bombGreed is seen to have been at the centre of the storm. Greed, supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. Millions of mortgage loans were made to home-buyers who proved incapable of meeting their debt obligations, leading to high levels of toxic loans and foreclosures. This led to a collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the reversal of the housing boom in other industrialized economies have had a ripple effect around the world.“Global Economic Forecast : Recession Into Depression” was written by Sheldon Filger
12Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened? Dynamism has been in decline for a decade - we just did not notice (due to housing bubble)Stifling patent systemQuarterly results focus vs. long-term value creationFinancial system averse to funding business innovation Edmund Phelps and Leo Tilman (Harvard Business Review)Top 1% of Americans saw their real income rise 700% between 1980 and 2007 while the real income of the median family increased only 22%.Global Economic Forecast : Recession Into Depression” was written by Sheldon FilgerTop executives received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.
13Economic Meltdown: What the Hell Happened? Austin - the third most recession proof city in the U.S. The Brookings Institute analyzes the health of America’s 100 largest metropolitan economies, or is it?The Great recession is overMarkets aren’t efficientW-Shaped RecoveryBank Lending Won't Come Back soonDollar DeclineInflation Will Be ControlledUncertainty Will Create VolatilityHigh unemployment to stayNearly two-thirds is the public debt, which is owed to the people, businesses and foreign governments who bought Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds.The rest is owed by the government to itself, and is held as Government Account securities. Largest in the worldFor every one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate, the starting income of new graduates fell by as much as 7 percent. – Lisa Kahn, Yale
14What’s in a Dream? Back Britain – IMF bail-out The Revolutions of 1968 16 years under communism in Ex-YugoslaviaThe break-up of statesThe dot-com boom and bustThe US economic meltdown“The Chinese Dream”
15So what about the American Dream? Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?Redefine our social valuesCommunity vs. the individualEradicate U.S. ”third world”Real cost of sustainabilityReconsider “hyper capitalism”Social projectsRediscover the intangiblesLeverage “American” skills in entrepreneurshipLook for unique innovationAvoid protectionism
16Understanding the value of a dystopia “You must have chaos within you to create a dancing star.”- Frederic Nietzsche
17Shift from a Dystopia to Plutopia Subvert assumptions Peel away the surface – experience the outcomeRevisit values and signifiersPlay with fracture, impact points and disruption Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids Change perspective and conceptual relevance Add events and potential wildcards
18Create you own Plutopia It’s not about predicting the future, but creating it.