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1. 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication or, The 3% Solution Dave Lindbergh IMTC Fall Forum November 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "1. 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication or, The 3% Solution Dave Lindbergh IMTC Fall Forum November 2008."— Presentation transcript:

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2 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication or, The 3% Solution Dave Lindbergh IMTC Fall Forum November 2008

3 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Contents Hooke Labs & how we use video Past –How we got to this point Present –Successful niches for video –Why no mass-market adoption of video? –False reasons –User expectations Correct reasons (my opinion) Future –How to succeed: The 3% Solution

4 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Thesis Video telecom is in < 1% of conference rooms –~ 0% of homes Mass acceptance has never occurred –Despite huge consumer enthusiasm for video –Despite good solutions to traditional problems Because the quality of experience falls short –The sense of being there is disappointing This will change –Telepresence market is the lever –Gradual improvements will lead to the mass-market

5 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Hookes use of video

6 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Hooke Laboratories Start-up biotech CRO & manufacturer Typical CRO contract $5000 to $50,000 Customers all over the world –USA, Canada –Europe –Asia –South America

7 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Hooke is well-equipped for video Co-founder w/14 years in video conferencing Broadband Internet connection Skype + webcams Polycom VSX 7000 (H.323, SIP, H.320)

8 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November How often does Hooke use video? Never –Not once Why not? And what can be done about that? –That is what this talk is about

9 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November How we got here

10 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Video telephony system 18 frames/second Progressive scan Plasma display Pixel aspect ratio 3:2 Image quality described as excellent End-to-end latency 1 millisecond (great!)

11 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November April 1927 – Bell Labs

12 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November New York – Washington DC Walter GiffordHerbert Hoover President, AT&TUS Secy of Commerce New York Washington DC

13 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Television = Telephone + Vision 50x50 pixel display, neon bulbs Camera: Arc lamp beam, mechanical scanning Optional projection to 2x3 feet –But results were not so good Edna Mae Horner Operator Chesapeake and Potomac Telephone Company

14 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November AT&T Picturephone 1957 Experimental Model

15 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Early 1960s Mirror

16 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November AT&T was very serious Plenty of smart business people! 1964

17 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Framing

18 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November AT&T was not alone NTT, 1968 Philips, 1974 Lots of investment, market research, usability studies…

19 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November AT&T quietly gave up in the early 1970s Did it cost too much?

20 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November s – Still image picture phones Mid-1980s: Japanese consumer electronic firms introduced still-image picture phones –Used existing regular analog phone line –POTS modem –~ 5 seconds to send 1 black & white frame –No audio during picture transmission –~$200 each Very few takers

21 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November – AT&T Videophone 2500 Predicting that 10 years from now video phones will be as popular as cordless phones and fax machines, last week AT&T introduced the first full-color motion video phone that operates over regular phone lines… –Newsweek, January 20, frames/second, $1500 Marconi, others, had similar products

22 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Many more videophones since then They all worked Their makers all expected commercial success And why not? –Consumers are consistently excited at the idea of video telecommunication Siemens T-View (H.320 ISDN) ~ 1997

23 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Maybe the technology wasnt ready Too expensive Poor video quality Not enough bandwidth Maybe the time is finally right –Maybe your company is thinking about introducing a video phone –Maybe you think now is the time If so…

24 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November …you are not alone

25 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Others have thought so, too

26 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Really, more than you might think

27 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November a lot more

28 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November …and more…

29 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November …and more.

30 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Today: Video phones are in every home and every office Well, no Why not???

31 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November People want video communication Witness all the attempts Just talk to potential users – lots of excitement But they dont buy or use video when offered –Except for narrow niche applications For some reason people are disappointed –We need to understand why before we can fix this

32 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Progress so far

33 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November A successful, but small, industry Video conferencing –~$2B/year (generously) –Doesnt seem to be growing much Telepresence –~$100M/year(?), growing fast –Expense limits market size (Wainhouse says < $1B)

34 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Video telecommunication today Video conferencing offered since mid-1980s –More than 20 years More successful than video phones Why? –High-value application –Relatively big picture, high resolution –Less restriction on where people are in the frame –More like being there than video phones –At work – people are paid to use it But…

35 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November After 20+ years, video is in < 1% of conference rooms –Lots of room for growth –Lots of room for growth –Similar problems as stopped video telephony –Similar problems as stopped video telephony Source: Article.aspx?id= October 14, 2008

36 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November People want visual communication So – Why?

37 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Challenges today – are these the problem? Connectivity issues –Incompatible protocols & standards –NATs and firewalls –Network fragmentation IP, ISDN, POTS, 3G, 4G…IP, ISDN, POTS, 3G, 4G… –No public/automatic gateways and bridges Too much latency –And lots of denial about it; doesnt help

38 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Videophones didnt have connectivity problems (mostly) Early videophones solved connectivity –Offered & operated by carriers –Simple analog devices Many videophones were utterly reliable –POTS models used voice network (w/modems) Reliability was not the problem Connectivity was not the problem

39 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Why no mass adoption – is it cost? AT&T spent $billions – lots of market research –Best and brightest people in the world –They were sure it would sell Many free services: PC + $15 webcam –Skype, AIM, Yahoo, MS Messenger, NetMeeting… Many video phones were/are offered by carriers with subsidies –Phones under $300 common –Same usage fees as voice calls Probably not cost

40 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Is it ease of use? AT&T Picturephone was a telephone –Pick up phone, dial number Most videophones are equally easy to use Probably not ease of use

41 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Is it video quality? Latency? Many products have very good video quality –Even bad pictures look good on small displays –1960s analog phones had good quality Modern VC systems have excellent video quality, large displays, but still havent enjoyed mass adoption Phones of the 1960s and 1970s were analog –No extra latency Probably not these, either –All these things are very important – necessary –But they dont seem to be sufficient

42 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November The mass adoption barrier Video conferencing is a successful niche –But very far from mass adoption (< 1%) Video telephony hasnt succeeded yet –Yet, clearly there is a market desire! Current issues do not explain past failures –Standards, connectivity were solved for videophones –Latency was not a problem in the analog world Then what is required for success? –Why have users not yet embraced video telephony?

43 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Fiction creates expectations Metropolis (Fritz Lang, 1926)

44 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Fiction reflects expectations The Jetsons (Hanna-Barbera, 1962) Where are the cameras? This is impossible with todays video But it is expected The Jetsons (Hanna-Barbera, 1962)

45 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Perfect framing, perfect lighting Star Trek (Paramount, 1967)

46 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Nobody is nervous on camera 2001: A Space Odyssey (Stanley Kubrick, 1968) Actors look straight into the camera Professional cinematography / videography Multiple camera positions & zooms Directors choose the best shots

47 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Real video is not like fictional video

48 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November What will it take for mass adoption? More than just: –Cost –Latency –Reliability –Connectivity –Resolution –Picture size –Ease of use These are all necessary, but not sufficient

49 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November What is the problem, then?

50 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Quality of Experience The sense of being there is disappointing –At least, weaker than people expect & want VC is not enough like being in the same place –Eye contact –Peripheral vision –Depth perception –Awareness of framing –Perceived distance to other people –Ability to interrupt –Certainly other things, too

51 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Video is much harder than it seems Video is not just another channel –Text, audio, video, right? Wrong. Far-end cant tell where you put the keyboard Microphone location is not very important The camera location matters –Each person has a different viewpoint –People direct their gaze at each other –People are aware when others look at them –Viewpoints matter

52 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely Study this image It illustrates a lot about what consumers expect from video telecommunication

53 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely Mr. Spacely is much larger than Jetson That is because Mr. Spacely is the boss

54 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely Jetson is not thinking about whether hes still in the frame Even though hes jumped out of his seat

55 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely Mr. Spacely appears very close to Jetson –A confrontational distance –Not at the opposite end of a room This is why hes jumped out of his seat

56 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely Mr. Spacelys image is above Jetson This, also, is because Spacely is the boss

57 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely We expect that Spacely has peripheral vision –Spacely could tell if we (the viewer) were in the room We feel Spacely could look at us if he wanted to

58 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely We can tell who Mr. Spacely is looking at Jetson and Spacely have eye contact

59 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely But we, the viewer, do not have eye contact with either of them Because they are looking at each other, not us If we were in the room, this would feel natural

60 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November George Jetson & Mr. Spacely The artist knows all this without being told But video engineers do not

61 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Video viewpoints & perspectives Image size matters Display distance matters –These depend on each other –And on type of conversation Camera height matters –Face above camera = Dominant like Mr. Spacelylike Mr. Spacely Judges and kings sit up highJudges and kings sit up high There is no single right answer –People can either stand or sit –Multiple viewers in different positions 1984 (Apple Computer, 1984) V for Vendetta (James McTeigue, 2006)

62 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Framing Mother (Albert Brooks, 1996) –Rob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophone Rob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophoneRob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophone In film & TV, directors choose the right shot –And change shots –To focus attention on what is important Consciousness of framing can be distracting Loose enough for freedom of movement Enough detail & size to see faces clearly –Difficult to achieve both at the same time –Main achievement of todays telepresence systems

63 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Perceived interpersonal distance Critical for natural-feeling conversation Controlled by size and distance of image Right distance varies by type of conversation –Intimate, professional, adversarial, etc. –Some cultural dependence

64 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November More stuff Peripheral vision –Who is there –Who is looking at us –Who is paying attention –Who is trying to interrupt Side conversations Depth perception –Focus –Parallax

65 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Why is this so complicated? Voice telephony doesnt have these problems –So why does adding video make things worse? Because people are evolved to talk in the dark –This is why using the telephone feels natural Because video is not just another channel –But thats how engineers usually think about it –Its something very different The visual communications experience is expected to feel more natural and intuitive

66 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November The 3% Solution

67 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November What the market really wants: Telepresence The real thing – like being there Todays telepresence is a big improvement –Picture size and quality are clearly sufficient –Peripheral vision & framing are solved –High expense limits market size Mass acceptance requires high Quality of Experience at an affordable cost Under 1% of the potential market is served now –Even small improvements can make a big difference –Start by getting to 3%

68 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Telepresence = Innovation Opportunity Telepresence market is not as cost sensitive –But very interested in real improvements –Tech will trickle down to lower-cost systems later It doesnt have to be perfect – just a little better –Remember, 3% is the goal (!) How to get there? Prototype many ideas –Tinker, experiment … try out lots of ideas –We all think our untested ideas will work! –Yet most new ideas fail –So build them & test them – cheaply –Prototypes, not products

69 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Products vs. Prototypes Few Usable by anyone ReliableInteroperable Cheap in volume Automated with software Many Usable by builders only ClunkyUnique Expensive (build just 2) Run manually by people PrototypesProducts Take risks, but ones you can afford – prototypes –Most new ideas are no good –If its not risky, its not innovation

70 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Example – CNN hologram, Not really a hologram I dont claim this is practical Shows only that more is possible than we are accustomed to (clip) clip Maybe better not to ask how it works –Use it as an inspiration – how can you make it work?

71 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Parting advice Try something new Seek improvement TinkerPrototype Use off-the-shelf tech Listen to end-users Lead the market Focus on un-served 99% Repeat past failures Despair at imperfection Theorize Commit to untried ideas Push existing envelope Listen to customers Follow the competition Focus on existing 1% DontDo Someone will get there & collect the pot of gold –Why not you?

72 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November Thank you!


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