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Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2008.9.11

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Presentation on theme: "Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2008.9.11"— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space Bruce Cordell, Ph.D

2 Preview Live, work, and play. The Space Goal Well have the ebullience! –Technology and Money are just the beginning Long-term economic trends explain Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200 yrs… Self-Sufficiency in space is essential –Windows close quickly Our window opens in 2015; next opens in 2071 –Some urgency

3 Introduction

4 Mars Dome City

5 Disney and Von Braun The 1960s were special…

6 The Way We Were…

7 2001 Opened Peoples Minds

8 The Way We Will Be

9 Maslow Window Model and the Data

10 Its Why the smiles?

11 Why No Major Thrust Beyond LEO After Apollo? No International Threat (Logsdon) Too Expensive; Competition overemphasized (McDougall) Generational Change (McCurdy) Didnt pay off (Brin) Space Has No Meaning (Roland) Cyberspace replaced Outer Space (Benjamin) Space was a Political Deception (DeGroot) These are Only Part of the Story…

12 1952…

13 Colliers Magazine – Prelude to Apollo … the inevitably of mans conquest of space… is not science fiction…the U.S. must immediately embark on a long-range program. Colliers, March Yrs Later: Apollo 11 landed on the Moon Is There A Parallel Today?

14 The 56 Yr Energy/Economy Cycle From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64. Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.

15 Compelling Clusters Energy Peaks Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/ Explorations N. America Africa N. Polar Moon Macro-Engineering None Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo Projects (MEP) Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/ War of 1812 Cold War

16 Great Exploration Events and MEPs: Definitions Great Exploration Events are recognized by: 1.Exploration of significantly new geographical sites 2.An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger 3.Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by: 1.Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved 2.Extreme cost ($ 1+ B) and very large physical size 3.Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)

17 Lewis & Clark --The Great Exploration

18 MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS I: Great Explorations Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. Lewis and Clark/American West ( ) D = +3 yr 2. Livingstone/Africa ( ; ) D = -5 yr King/American West (1864- ) 3. Peary/North Pole (1909) D = -4 yr 4. Apollo/Moon ( ) D = -9 yr

19 Panama Canal…The MEP

20 MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS II: Macro-Engineering Projects (MEP) Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. None (1801) 2. Suez Canal ( ) D = +2 yr Great Eastern Ship ( ) Trans-Atlantic Cable (1866) 3. Panama Canal ( )D = - 9 yr Titanic (1912) 4. Apollo ( )D = -9 yr

21 MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS III: Major Wars Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025) (D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date) 1. Napoleonic Wars/Europe ( )D = +2 yr War of 1812/N. America ( ) 2. Civil War/U.S.A. ( )D = + 4 yr 3. W. W. I ( )D = +1 yr 4. Vietnam ( )D = -4 yr

22 Economic Booms & Ebullience 1801 …so much success…countrys credit was so good …euphoric years…prolonged prosperity …on the brink of Utopia Camelot…unparalleled economic boom The greatest economic boom ever.

23 The Maslow Window Model Economic boom every ~56 yrs in decade just before each energy cycle peak Affluence, Wide-spread Reduction of Maslow Pressures Ebullience, Unusual Confidence in the Future Emergence of conditions enabling Great Explorations, MEPs, Major Wars

24 Forecasts and Indicators

25 21 st Century Forecasts – A Framework for the Future The decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog – in the economy, technology, exploration, politics – and have the zeitgeist of the 1960s

26 Maslow Window Characteristics Over Last 200 Years MEP Costs dramatically increase, 100x Exploration/MEP Timing; 5-9 yr before energy peaks Major War Timing; just after energy peak, except for Vietnam Rapid Cut-off After Energy Cycle Peaks Significant Economic Growth between Peaks Major Economic Booms every ~56 yrs triggered by technological innovations

27 Forecasts for A Great Exploration in Space –Integrated with MEP, the new Apollo trend –Sputnik-like competitors and space tourism A Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPs –E.g., manned Mars, solar power, space tourism –Cost ~ 10x Apollo A Major War –War on Terror vs. Cold War before… –An early war could eliminate Exploration/MEP events.

28 Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07

29 Signs of the Times… The greatest economic boom ever Fortune July, 2007 International Space programs taking off… Non-Space MEPs…e.g. Panama Canal Return of Cold War-like tensions Civic Health Index recovering from 1980s & 90s Adventure-type travel and extreme sports skyrocketing Suborbital space tourist industry ready to go Millennials poised for exploration…

30 Policy Implications and Conclusions

31 A Few Policy-Related Implications Major Programs only during Maslow Windows GEs and MEPs are underestimated Rapid Cutoff …Self-Sufficiency Wildcard is Major War Timing VSE has No Time for Mars? Grand Alliance vs. Sputnik-style: Indicators Maslow vs. Survival Programs Long Waves influence Technology, Politics,etc..

32 Policy-Related Implications II Math/Science Education Culture Changed The New NASA and Interspace Space Tourism, Technology, and Marketing International Events influence U.S. Programs Return of Cold War and Close Cooperation Maslow Windows and Marketing NASA Focus on creating Space Frontier Society Approaching Maslow Window requires action

33 Whos the Next Space President?

34 Why Should NASA Care? A Framework for long-range planning and specific Forecast Models A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms A Morale Boost -- Timing is almost inevitable due to long waves in the economy (i.e., Maslow Windows)

35 Summary will be the analog of the 1960s… The key is self-sufficiency in space – because support for major exploration ends abruptly The wildcard is the timing of the projected major war in the 2020s After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – Can Humanity Afford to Wait?

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