Presentation on theme: "Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space"— Presentation transcript:
1Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space: The New Race to Space Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.21stCenturyWaves.com
2Preview “Live, work, and play.”— The Space Goal We’ll have the ebullience!Technology and Money are just the beginningLong-term economic trends explain Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200 yrs…Self-Sufficiency in space is essentialWindows close quicklyOur window opens in 2015; next opens in 2071Some urgency
11Why No Major Thrust Beyond LEO After Apollo? No International Threat (Logsdon)Too Expensive; Competition overemphasized (McDougall)Generational Change (McCurdy)Didn’t pay off (Brin)Space Has No Meaning (Roland)Cyberspace replaced Outer Space (Benjamin)Space was a Political Deception (DeGroot)These are Only Part of the Story…
13Colliers Magazine – Prelude to Apollo “…the inevitably of man’s conquest of space… is not science fiction…the U.S. must immediately embark on a long-range program.” Colliers, March 195217 Yrs Later: Apollo 11 landed on the MoonIs There A Parallel Today?
14The 56 Yr Energy/Economy Cycle From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64.Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.
15Compelling Clusters Energy Peaks 1801 1857 1913 1969 Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/Explorations N. America Africa N. Polar MoonMacro-Engineering None Suez Canal Panama Canal ApolloProjects (MEP)Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/War of Cold War
16Great Exploration Events and MEPs: Definitions Great Exploration Events are recognized by:Exploration of significantly new geographical sitesAn international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or dangerOften, the use of state-of-the-art technologyMacro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by:Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improvedExtreme cost ($ 1+ B) and very large physical sizeAbility to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)
18MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS I: Great Explorations Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)1. Lewis and Clark/American West ( ) D = +3 yr2. Livingstone/Africa ( ; ) D = -5 yrKing/American West (1864- )3. Peary/North Pole (1909) D = -4 yr4. Apollo/Moon ( ) D = -9 yr
20MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS II: Macro-Engineering Projects (MEP) Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)1. None (1801)2. Suez Canal ( ) D = +2 yrGreat Eastern Ship ( )Trans-Atlantic Cable (1866)3. Panama Canal ( ) D = - 9 yrTitanic (1912)4. Apollo ( ) D = -9 yr
21MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS III: Major Wars Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)1. Napoleonic Wars/Europe ( ) D = +2 yrWar of 1812/N. America ( )2. Civil War/U.S.A. ( ) D = + 4 yr3. W. W. I ( ) D = +1 yr4. Vietnam ( ) D = -4 yr
22Economic Booms & Ebullience 1801 “…so much success…country’s credit was so good.”1857 “…euphoric years…prolonged prosperity.”1913 “…on the brink of Utopia.”1969 “Camelot…unparalleled economic boom”“The greatest economic boom ever.”
23The Maslow Window Model Economic boom every ~56 yrs in decade just before each energy cycle peakAffluence, Wide-spread Reduction ofMaslow PressuresEbullience, Unusual Confidence in the FutureEmergence of conditions enablingGreat Explorations, MEPs, Major Wars
2521st Century Forecasts – A Framework for the Future The decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog– in the economy, technology,exploration, politics –and have the zeitgeist of the 1960s
26Maslow Window Characteristics Over Last 200 Years MEP Costs dramatically increase, 100xExploration/MEP Timing; 5-9 yr before energy peaksMajor War Timing; just after energy peak, except for VietnamRapid Cut-off After Energy Cycle PeaksSignificant Economic Growth between PeaksMajor Economic Booms every ~56 yrs triggered by technological innovations
27Forecasts for 2015 - 2025 A Great Exploration in Space Integrated with MEP, the “new” Apollo trend“Sputnik-like” competitors and space tourismA Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPsE.g., manned Mars, solar power, space tourismCost ~ 10x ApolloA Major WarWar on Terror vs. Cold War before…An early war could eliminate Exploration/MEP events.
29Signs of the Times…The “greatest economic boom ever” Fortune July, 2007International Space programs taking off…Non-Space MEPs…e.g. Panama CanalReturn of Cold War-like tensionsCivic Health Index recovering from 1980s & 90sAdventure-type travel and extreme sports skyrocketingSuborbital space tourist industry ready to goMillennials poised for exploration…
31A Few Policy-Related Implications Major Programs only during Maslow WindowsGEs and MEPs are underestimatedRapid Cutoff …Self-SufficiencyWildcard is Major War TimingVSE has No Time for Mars?Grand Alliance vs. Sputnik-style: IndicatorsMaslow vs. Survival ProgramsLong Waves influence Technology, Politics,etc..
32Policy-Related Implications II Math/Science Education Culture ChangedThe New NASA and InterspaceSpace Tourism, Technology, and MarketingInternational Events influence U.S. ProgramsReturn of Cold War and Close CooperationMaslow Windows and Marketing NASAFocus on creating Space Frontier SocietyApproaching Maslow Window requires action
34Why Should NASA Care?A Framework for long-range planning and specific Forecast ModelsA Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic boomsA Morale Boost -- Timing is almost inevitable due to long waves in the economy (i.e., Maslow Windows)
35Can Humanity Afford to Wait? Summarywill be the analog of the 1960s…The key is self-sufficiency in space – because support for major exploration ends abruptlyThe wildcard is the timing of the projected major war in the 2020sAfter 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.Can Humanity Afford to Wait?