Presentation on theme: "GUATEMALA: a country overview Mario Marroquín Rivera February 2010."— Presentation transcript:
GUATEMALA: a country overview Mario Marroquín Rivera February 2010
OFFICIAL NAME:Republic of Guatemala CAPITAL:Guatemala AERA:108,889 Km2 POPULATION:13,667,815 (projected for 2008) OFFICIAL LANGUAGE:Spanish OFFICIAL CURRENCYEl Quetzal EXCHANGE RATEUS$ 1.00 = Q 8.10 (Feb. 2010) GENERAL INFORMATION
GUATEMALA: INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
GUATEMALAN GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVE BRANCH - Presidency - Vice Presidency - State Departments - The Cabinet (Secretaries and Vice- secretaries) - The Departments LEGISLATIVE BRANCH - Congress - Congressmen and congresswomen elected by the people by universal suffrage JUDICIAL BRANCH - Supreme Court of Justice - President of the Judicial Branch DECENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT ENTITIES: - Constitutional Court - Supreme Electoral Court - Office of the Attorney General - Office of the Public Prosecutor
GUATEMALA: ECONOMIC INFORMATION
MACROECONOMIC DATA GDP 2008(in millions of US$):35,729.0 GDP per capita 2008:2,627.1 GDP GROWTH RATE (preliminary for 2008) :4.3% INFLATION (January 2009):7.88% NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (in milliones of US$, to January 2009):4,758.5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ENEI 2004):3.13% Source: BANGUAT-FMI
Exports by destination (in millions of US$) Source: BANGUAT GUATEMALA: A DIVERSIFIED MARKET
GUATEMALA: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS Effective Approval process Negotiation process
GUATEMALA: RECIPROCAL INVESTMENT PROMOTION AND PROTECTION AGREEMENTS Effective Approval process Pending subscription Negotiation process
GUATEMALA: BUSINESS CLIMATE
AGENCYJul-05Jul-06Jul-07Jul-08 FITCHBB- (1)BB+ (Stable) MOODY'SBa2 (Stable) Ba2 (Positive) Ba2 (Stable) S&PBB- (Stable)BB (Stable)BB (Positive)BB (Stable)* OCDE6555 *Info to Nov 2008 Source: Fitch, Moodys, S&P, OCDE The main rating agencies have assigned a Stable Outlook for Guatemala throughout GUATEMALA: COUNTRY RATINGS
GUATEMALA: SOCIAL DATA
HDI VALUE (2005):0.689 ILLITERACY RATE (% ):23.9 LIFE EXPECTANCY RATE ( years ):68 MORTALITY RATE (for every/1000 inhabitants) :5.19 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (for every/1000 births) :41 Source: HDI- UNDP, INE GUATEMALA: DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION:13,667,815 ANNUAL GROWTH:2.46% MALE POPULATION:6,673,533 FEMALES POPULATION:7,180,208 RURAL POPULATION:53.9% URBAN POPULATION:46.1% Source: INE
Source:MEM, INE y Mineduc * 2007 y 2008 MEM proyections GUATEMALA: EVOLUTION OF SOME SOCIAL INDICATORS Kinder Elemen- tary Junior High High School
GUATEMALA: SECTORIAL INFORMATION
Mundo Maya La Aurora International Airport GUATEMALA: AIRPORT SYSTEM 2 International Airports: La Aurora and Mundo Maya Under OACI regulations Airbus 320/340 Boeing 737 Embraer 110 La Aurora Airport: Modernization plan Category 1, according to the FAA Capacity of 4 million passengers a year 160 weekly flights Area of 115 thousand square meters 98 double counters/ordinary use a conveyor belt area of 500 linear meters 24 migratory control points Capable of attending 22 Aircrafts, simultaneously. 17 Local Airports
GUATEMALA: PORT SYSTEM 297 Km 98 Km Guatemala has access to both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, where 78% of the countrys foreign trade load is managed. The National Port System has specialized terminals, facilities, certifications and the necessary services to offer a safe and efficient port system, allowing access to conventional vessels, container vessels, roll on /roll off, Refrigerated vessels, bulk product transportation (solids and liquids) vessels and cruise lines. On the Atlantic we have: Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla and Puerto Barrios, at a distance of 297 KM from Guatemala city; and on the Pacific: Puerto Quetzal, at a distance of 98 Km from the capital city.
GUATEMALA: ROADWAY SYSTEM ROAD SURFACE TYPETOTAL KILOMETERS% ASPHALT 6, % DIRT ROAD 5, % RURAL ROADS 3, % TOTAL15, % NONREGISTERED ROAD SYSTEM 9, %* Source: MICIVI *of the registered network Guatemala has a modern and growing road infrastructure network connecting its different regions, ports and boarders with Mexico and Central America. The State of Guatemala is working on a Public-Private Participation or Alliance legislation, Law P3, seeking to improve and expand the ports, airports, roads and, thus, the national infrastructure.
Cost GuatemalaEl SalvadorHondurasNicaraguaCosta Rica Calls to the US and Canada US $0.09 US $0.10US $0.84US $0.17US $0.45 Calls to Central America US $0.34US $0.35US $0.40US $0.35US $0.40 Local callsUS $0.02 US $0.01 GUATEMALA: TELECOMMUNICATIONS GUATEMALA OFFERS: A modern legal framework regarding investments: One of the most flexible Telecommunications laws in Latin America. One of the most competitive sectors at the Latin American level. Redundancy: 99.98% (SLA) World-class international stakeholders: Telefónica Millicom / Digicel Telmex, among others Increased coverage 500,000 (1995) to 13.3 million (2007) Mobile: 65% annual growth vrs 45% for Latino America Competitive rate L.A.: Source: Telefónica 2007
CORPORATE RATE: FOR BILLING PURPOSESFeb 09 - Apr 09 RESOLUTION NUMBER CNEE - 25 – 2008 IN US$ Consumer charges (Q/user-month) $ 0.95 Power charge (Q/kWh) $ 0.16 Exchange Rate: US$1 x Q8.08 Source: CNEE GUATEMALA: ELECTRIC POWER SERVICE GUATEMALA OFFERS: A modern legal framework for investments: Electrical Power Law. 75% of power is privately generated World-class international actors: TAMPA Duke Energy IBERDROLA UNIÓN FENOSA ENEL Supply increase Total: 700 MW (1995) to 1,800MW (2006)
GUATEMALA: ELECTRIC POWER SERVICE The Regulated Market consists of the following: Regarding the demand: All those users with a power demand of less than 100 kW. Regarding the supply: Authorized distributors within their coverage area The Wholesale Market has the following characteristics: Generators with over 5MW of power. Distributors with a minimum of 15,000 users Transporters with a minimum transportation capacity of 10 MW. Marketers buying or selling blocks of energy relating to a Stable Offer of at least 2MW. Large users with a maximum demand of over 100kW of power. Local Power Generation7,928.62GWh Internal Consumption GWh Exports131.88GWh Imports8.12GWh Average SPOT Price89.8US$ / MWh Maximum Demand1,443.43MW Load Factor61.73% Firm Offer 2007 – 2008 (Sugar Cane Harvest)1,829.55MW Firm Offer 2007 – 2008 (Non Harvest season)1,759.80MW Losses (Main and Secondary)294.4GWh
Rio claro Parrita Leon Rio lindo Suyapa Pavana El cajon Veladero Cañas Pepesca Tapachula Los Brillantes Ahuachapan Nejapa 15 de setiembre Ticuantepe Guate este Santa ElenaBelice City SIEPAC Guatemala – Mexico Interconnection 200 MW Guatemala – Belize Interconnection 50MW Guatemala-Salvador Interconnection 200MW Geothermal Power 200 MW GUATEMALA: GREATEST POWER CONNECTIVITY IN THE MESOAMERICAN REGION
GUATEMALA: KEY MESSAGES
Guatemala is the largest economy in Central America (1/3 of Central America GDP). GUATEMALA EL SALVADORHONDURASNICARAGUA COSTA RICAPANAMA GDP (billions de US$) SOURCE: IMF (estimated) YEAR 2008 MESSAGE 1: Guatemala is the main economic partner in Central America
MESSAGE 2: Sound macroeconomics and public debt management Outstanding record of debt service. Never has restructured obligations to private creditors. Solid credit and debt indicators. Excellent working relationship with multilateral institutions (IMF, IBRD, IDB, CABEI). Sustained and stable economic growth over the past 15 years. One digit inflation and a stable currency, as result of disciplined monetary policy. Proven commitment to fiscal discipline Controlled and sustainable Current Account Deficit. Increasing level of international monetary reserves. Reserves level fully cover the countrys external debt.
MESSAGE 3: Improving democratic Institutions Supreme Electoral Tribunal has conducted 12 transparent electoral events. Constitutional and Supreme Court of Justice as fundament for the rule of law. Plural Legislative with democratic and vigorous debate. Human Rights office playing a fundamental and recognized role in the institutional structure of the country. Important reforms in security and justice area included in the national public agenda.
MESSAGE 4: Ethnic and social agenda as regards the national affairs MESSAGE 4: Ethnic and social agenda as regards the national affairs Active participation of ethnic groups in local government (more than 100 indigene mayor) and in development council system. Political instruments for ethnic and social dialogue. Quick, peaceful, orderly reduction of the army forces. Increased social spending. Establishment of social protection programs
GUATEMALABRAZILCOLOMBIAEGYPTPERUROMANIA OCDE Classification GDP Growth Rate - % - (avg ) Fiscal Deficit - % of GDP - (avg ) Inflation - % - (avg ) External Debt – billions of US$ External Debt - % of GDP International Reserves- billions of US$ International Reserves - % of External Debt Source: Bancos Centrales - IMF MESSAGE 5: Country performance is comparable to other global players
GUATEMALA: A COUNTRY RESILIENCE TESTED
EVENTSOVERALL PERFORMANCE Stabilization and Structural Adjustment Political events: self coup aborted, parliamentary elections General Elections: orderly transition Peace Agreements Asian Crisis Referendum: Constitution reforms Hurricane Mitch General Elections: orderly transition Teachers strike Confrontation: Public S.-Private S. General Elections: orderly transition CAFTA negotiation Hurricane Stan trade openness (reduction of 3.62% in average tariff / ) fiscal discipline price stability free capital repatriation increased social spending administrative decentralization Peace Agreement State policies adopted positive and sustained (av. 3.3%) without volatility growing at per capita level (last US$ 2,513.00) Economic Growth low fiscal deficit (av. 1.6%) single digit inflation, stable (av. 7.4%) Stable exchange rate (last Q7.60/US$) increasing level of reserves (last US$ 4 bill) diversified exports sustained current account deficit (av. 4.6%) Stabiility and macroeconomic strenth the lowest in the Hemisphere 11.2% of GDP 68.0% of exports of goods and services restructuring: local currency increase percentage (57.5% set in 2005 and 75.2% may 2006)10 year term. Moderate External Debt child malnutrition (35% to 22%) schooling (71% to 93%) child mortality (7.3 to 3.8 /mil) Basic housing Improving Social Indicators modern legislation and institutions to combat money laundering institutionalized electoral system press freedom reduction of the army democratic debate in Congress Human Rights institutionalism Institutional Improvement Ethno Cultural Considerations: Guatemala with more than 23 ethnic groups (and policies of inclusion, diversity of languages, geographical ubication and economic interests) isnt similar to Peru, Bolivia or Ecuador M.R.M.R. & M.A.G.L. 2006