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Ingenuity Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?

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Presentation on theme: "Ingenuity Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Ingenuity Theory Can Humankind Create a Sustainable Civilization?

2 Are we creating a world thats too complex to manage? INGENUITY THEORY

3 Do the experts really know whats going on? INGENUITY THEORY

4 Are we really as smart as we think we are? Are we really as smart as we think we are? INGENUITY THEORY

5 Can we solve the problems of the future? INGENUITY THEORY

6 War in the Persian Gulf INGENUITY THEORY Blackouts in North America and Europe Deadly heat waves in Europe and India Millions affected by AIDS in Africa The lightening spread of SARS Suicide attacks in the Middle East

7 Is there something new here? INGENUITY THEORY

8 Are the problems were confronting becoming harder? INGENUITY THEORY Two Questions If so, can we solve them? Most definitely Too often not

9 H.G. Wells Hard imaginative thinking has not increased so as to keep pace with the expansion and complications of human societies and organizations. This is the darkest shadow upon the hopes of mankind. INGENUITY THEORY

10 Sets of instructions that tell us how to arrange the constituent parts of our physical and social worlds in ways that help us achieve our goals. Ingenuity INGENUITY THEORY

11 Economic paradigm Human beings are: Rational Consumers Key concepts: Consumption/production;Investment/saving Factors of production (or system inputs): Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideas INGENUITY THEORY

12 Ingenuity paradigm Human beings are: Pragmatic Problem-Solvers Key concepts: Ingenuity requirement and supply Factors of problem-solving or system inputs: Matter, energy (work), and ingenuity INGENUITY THEORY

13 ingenuity Human beings use ingenuity energy To guide the application of energy matter To arrange the matter around them (including materials and people) INGENUITY THEORY In ways that they hope will solve their problems

14 Two types of ingenuity SocialTechnical INGENUITY THEORY

15 Is our requirement for ingenuity rising? INGENUITY THEORY

16 Greater Complexity Greater Complexity through structural deepening through structural deepening (adding sub-systems and internal links)

17 A Simple Network

18 Greater Complexity Greater Complexity by adding nodes and links

19 Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of transfer

20 Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of transfer

21 Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of transfer

22 Greater Velocity Because of a higher rate of transfer Amount of material, energy, and/or information transferred per unit time along network links

23 ComplexityPace Connectedness and Scope Globalization of all humankinds activities Involves a rapid increase in the INGENUITY THEORY

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27 Changes in Temperature and in CO 2 Concentration Over Time Thousands of Years before Present Temperature (from the present core temperature of C) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) CO 2 (right axis) Temperature (left axis)

28 Changes in Temperature and in CO 2 Concentration Over Time Thousands of Years before Present Temperature (from the present core temperature of C) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) CO 2 (right axis) Temperature (left axis) Projection

29 Can we always supply the ingenuity we need? INGENUITY THEORY

30 The ingenuity supply chain Brains Science Politics Markets INGENUITY THEORY

31 Practical constraints on science Some problems are intrinsically hard Costs escalate as research progresses Society may not be supportive Scientific institutions may not function well INGENUITY THEORY

32 The ingenuity supply chain Brains Science Politics Markets INGENUITY THEORY

33 IngenuityGap Time Supply Requirement

34 What does this situation mean for our future? INGENUITY THEORY

35 Widening gulfs between rich weak poor powerful INGENUITY THEORY


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