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PV: The Path from Niche to Mainstream Source of Clean Energy Dick Swanson.

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Presentation on theme: "PV: The Path from Niche to Mainstream Source of Clean Energy Dick Swanson."— Presentation transcript:

1 PV: The Path from Niche to Mainstream Source of Clean Energy Dick Swanson

2 Outline History of PV –Satellites to Mainstream (almost) PV Market Dynamics –Growing fast PV Applications –Grid-connected distributed generation How Solar Cells Work –Its simple

3 Sun Day, May 5, 1978, SERI Dont worry Mr. President, solar will be economical in 5 years! I cant believe he said that. The 1970s oil crises sparked interest in PV as a terrestrial power source

4 Situation in 1975 $300/kg 3 inches in diameter Sawn one at a time 0.5 watts each $100/watt $200/watt Wafered Silicon Process PolysiliconWafer Solar CellSolar ModuleSystems Ingot

5 1975 View Wafered Silicon Hopelessly Too Expensive Breakthrough Needed Thin Films Concentrators Remote Habitation Solar Farms

6 What Actually Happened Wafered Silicon Emerges as the Dominant Technology Breakthrough Needed Thin Films Concentrators Remote Habitation Solar Farms DOE Wafered Silicon Program Residential/ Commercial Grid connected

7 PV Market Growth 95% Wafered Silicon

8 Historical PV Landscape EraMain PlayersCharacteristics Small Start-ups Solar Technology International ARCO Solar Power Corp. Exxon Solarex BP Tyco Mobile Rapid Growth Development of technology paradigm Oil Companies ARCO Exxon BP Mobile Shell Moderate growth Search for market Massive losses Few start-ups

9 Historical PV Landscape EraMain PlayersCharacteristics Japanese Companies Sharp Sanyo Kyocera Emergence of residential roof market Improved manufacturing Entrepreneurial Cos Q-Cells (Germany) Scanwafer (Norway) Solar World (Germany) Evergreen (US) SunPower (US) Suntech (China) MiaSole (US) Explosive growth Profitability Technology evolution

10 Market Share Trends

11 Recent Industry Milestones GW accumulated module production 2001More square inches of silicon used than in entire microelectronics industry GW production during year 2006More tons of silicon used than in microelectronics

12 History of SunPower Founded in to commercialize technology developed at Stanford Utility-scale solar dish application High performance required All-back-contact cell developed NASA & Honda early customers Great technology, high cost Merged with Cypress Semiconductor in 2001 Went public in 2005

13 SunPower Growth 2007 forecast non-GAAP net income as presented in Q4 conference call

14 Distributed Generation Strategies are Shaping the Future

15 Residential Retrofit New Production HomesCommercial & Public Power Plants PV Applications

16 Shell Sustained Growth Scenario Surprise Geothermal Solar Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. Exajoules Source: Shell, The Evolution of the Worlds Energy Systems, 1995 Renewable Energy Drivers: Climate Change Fossil Fuel Depletion Energy Security

17 Polysilicon WaferSolar CellSolar PanelSystemIngot Polysilicon Value Chain Cost Distribution 20% 30% 50% 2006 US Solar System Cost Allocation by Category

18 50%+ cost reduction from CA system cost is achievable


20 Commercial Roofs New Production Homes Commercial GroundPower Plants Systems Business Segment

21 Santa Barbara, California – 12.6 kW

22 Walldürn, Germany – 8.0 kW

23 Osaka, Japan – 5 kW

24 Walnut Creek, CA

25 New York City – 27 kW

26 Los Altos Hills, California – 35 kW

27 Market Opportunity for PV Roof Tiles Product enables homeowner to integrate PV into the roof of the building: –Lower profile than traditional modules means better aesthetics –Potential cost savings over traditional PV system –Traditionally targeted at new home construction PowerLight SunTile TM

28 New York City – 27 kW

29 Microsoft Silicon Valley Campus

30 Arnstein, Germany – 12 MW


32 32 Factory Assembled Unitary Product Reduces Cost Tracking improves Energy Delivery 15 MW Plant Nellis AFB

33 Television for 1 st Time

34 Energy from the Desert, Kosuke Kurokawa, ed., James & James, London, Advanced Crystalline? Thin film? Concentrating PV? The Terrawatt Future

35 35 How Solar Cells Work

36 36 H2OH2O Energy as light The Hydropower Analogy to PV Conversion

37 37 Solar Cell Operation e h Electron-Hole Production Electron Collection Hole Collection Light

38 38 Solar Cell Operation Step 1: Create electron at higher energy Thermalization loss Conduction Band Valence Band Bandgap

39 39 Solar Cell Operation Step 2: Transfer electron to wire at high energy (voltage/electrochemical potential/Fermi level) Thermalization loss Collection loss

40 40 Step 3: Deliver Energy to the External Circuit

41 41 Recombination Loss Any outcome of the freed electron and hole other than collection at the proper lead is a loss called recombination loss. This loss can occur in several ways

42 42 Bulk Recombination Loss A) Radiative recombination

43 43 Bulk Recombination Loss B) Defect mediated recombination (SRH recombination) Defect related mid-gap energy level

44 44 Surface and Contact Recombination Loss

45 45 Cell Current

46 46 Cell Voltage

47 47 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 1.54% 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% I 2 R Loss Reflection Loss Generic Solar Cell Loss Mechanisms Recombination Losses Back Light Absorption Limit Cell Efficiency29.0% Total Losses-14.3% Generic Cell Efficiency 14.7%

48 48 SunPowers Backside Contact Cell Passivating SiO 2 layer Reduces top and bottom recombination loss N-type Silicon – 270 um thick N-type FZ Silicon – 240 um thick reduces bulk recombination P+ N+ Texture Texture + Oxide Texture + SiO 2 + ARC Backside Gridlines Eliminates shadowing Thick, high-coverage metal reduces resistance loss Lightly doped front diffusion Reduces recombination loss Localized Contacts Reduces contact recombination loss Backside Mirror Reduces back light absorption Causes light trapping

49 49 SunPower Cell Loss Mechanisms N-type Silicon – 270 um thick Texture Texture + Oxide 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% I 2 R Loss 0.1% Limit Cell Efficiency29.0% Total Losses-4.4% Enabled Cell Efficiency24.6%

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