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Vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1 (Support for) Decision-making Marjan van Herwijnen Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken.

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Presentation on theme: "Vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1 (Support for) Decision-making Marjan van Herwijnen Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken."— Presentation transcript:

1 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1 (Support for) Decision-making Marjan van Herwijnen Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam

2 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 2

3 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 3 Program  Decision-making  Planning processes: –meadows of Rijnwaarden –water management in IJsselmeer  Evaluation and valuation: – Hondsbossche seawall

4 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 4 What can go wrong?  No decision  Wrong decision  Wrong decision strategy

5 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 5 No decision

6 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 6 Wrong decision RaRa R t -R a RtRt Assume a rope around the earth which is 10 meter longer than the circumference of the earth. Can a mouse walk under it? 2  R a +10 = 2  R t R t = R a + 10/2  R t -R a = 10/2   1.6 m

7 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 7 Solution Height= 1/8 * 10 meter = 1.25 meter The height is independent of the radius!

8 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 8 1. House with bar (HB) 2. House without bar (H) 3. No house (NH) 1. Scrooge 2. Drunkard 3. Health freak Scrooge NH> H> HB Drunkard HB> NH> H Health freak H> NH> HB ^^ ^^ ^^

9 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 9 Firstxxx Secondxxx Thirdxxx No houseHouseHouse with bar

10 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 10

11 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 11

12 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 12 Step by step or simultaneous  Alternatives 1. Kamper islandstorage above ground level 2. Lake Ketelstorage under water level 3. Lake Ketelstorage above water level  Criteria 1. Costs 2. Landscape 3. Nuisance  Performance Costs Kamper island> LK under> LK above water Landscape LK under> Kamper island> LK Above water NuisanceLK above> Kamper island> LK under water

13 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 13 Kamper islandLake KetelLake Ketel under waterabove water firstxxx secondxxx thirdxxx

14 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 14

15 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 15  ill-structured problems  multiple  objectives  alternatives  actors  reduce complexity to manageable proportions  facts (objectivity) and values (subjectivity)  uncertainty  need for transparency Characteristics of problems

16 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 16 Information processing (I) information InputOutput decision procedure decision

17 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 17 Information processing (II) InputOutput decision procedure decision information persons organisation

18 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 18 SustainabilityA-Test Advanced Techniques for Evaluation of Sustainability Assessment Tools

19 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 19 SustainabilityA-Test: Overview  EU project (DG research) in 6 th Framework;  Start: March 2004  End: August 2006  Budget: 1.3 million euro  18 European project partners  Three phases: –Design phase; –Case study on agriculture and land use; –Integration and synthesis

20 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 20 SustainabilityA-Test: goals  Overall goal is: –to give support to the definition and implementation of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy;  This will be done by: –recognizing the common and emerging tools that can be used to measure or assess sustainable development; –examining the theoretical and conceptual basis of the tools; –developing an evaluation framework that includes aspects for: various stages of policy and sustainable development –applying the evaluation framework consistent and peer-reviewed.

21 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 21 The webbook: home page

22 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 22 The webbook: Overview

23 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 23 The webbook: Book of References

24 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 24  Webbook can be found on: –www.SustainabilityA-Test.net  Final conference: –Tuesday June 20, 2006 Royal Academy Brussels, Belgium Dissemination

25 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 25 Het gebruik van ICT instrumenten ter ondersteuning van de ruimtelijke planvorming Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken Vrije Universiteit De Boelelaan HV Amsterdam M.van Herwijnen, M,S,G, Horrevoets, R.Janssen en A.Teunissen

26 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 26 Planning processes  meadows of Rijnwaarden  water management in IJsselmeer

27 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 27

28 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 28

29 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 29

30 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 30 searchscreen design recognition judgement evaluation/choice negotation evaluation/choice diagnose analysis/evaluation autorisation identificationdevelopmentselection

31 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 31 Rijnwaarden: Screening Goal:  Screening the band width By means of:  Design by landscape architects of three extreme scenario’s  Supported by GIS

32 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 32 Rijnwaarden: Vision making Goal:  Formulating a compromise alternative; the draft design By means of:  Presentation of the extreme alternatives  Input of stakeholders through idea-evenings  Supported by photographs, maps, oral explanation, a puzzle and discussion

33 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 33 Rijnwaarden: Design Goal:  Expanding the draft design to an integral design By means of:  Presentation evenings  Interaction between stakeholders and landscape architects

34 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 34 Rijnwaarden: screening

35 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 35 Rijnwaarden: vision making

36 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 36 ICT instruments for Rijnwaarden  Smartmap can replace the drawings on flap- overs  Spatial evaluation methods can support the evaluation of the extreme alternatives and help translate them to draft design.  The map presentations are already very suitable to communicate the information to the stakeholders.

37 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 37 Planning processes  meadows of Rijnwaarden  water management in IJsselmeer

38 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 38 zoekscreen ontwerp erkenning beoordeling evaluatie/keuze onderhandeling evaluatie/keuze diagnose analyse/evaluatie autorisatie

39 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 39 IJsselmeer: recognition phase

40 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 40 IJsselmeer: generating alternatives

41 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 41 IJsselmeer: evaluation/prioritize

42 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 42 The use of WINBOS output  The results of WINBOS have played a minor role in the evaluation and the design rounds. Part of this is due to the delayed availability of WINBOS in the various phases.  Limiting factor was not so much the reliability of the model, which was judged very highly, but the way the information was offered.

43 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 43 Deep water with water plants Deep water without water plants Moderately deep water with water plants Moderately deep water without water plants Shallow water with water plants Shallow water with helophytes Shallow water without water plants Very deep water Low situated forest Low situated grassland Low situated bare Low situated shrub High situated forest High situated grassland High situated bare High situated shrub Ecotopes Mosaic mapDominant map

44 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 44 Probability Low situated grassland Low situated shrub Low situated forest

45 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 45 Ecotopes Water with water plants Water without water plants Low situated forest Low situated grassland Low situated bare Low situated shrub High situated forest High situated grassland High situated bare High situated shrub Water directly transported Water stored horizontally Water stored vertically

46 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 46 Water stored verticallyWater stored horizontallyWater directly transported Ecotopes

47 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Number of target types of breeding birds Number of target types Value map of breeding birds Value map of breeding birds

48 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 48 (the least valuable) (the most valuable) Value Value breeding birds Value non-breeding birds Value birds ( ) Value birds ( )

49 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 49 Value map birds Water stored vertically Value map birds Water stored horizontally Difference map Difference (WSV-WSH) WSV << WSH WSV < WSH WSV = WSH WSV > WSH WSV >> WSH Value 1 (the least valuable) (the most valuable)

50 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 50 Best alternative mapWorst alternative map Alternatives No alternatives best or worst Water directly transported Water stored vertically Water stored horizontally

51 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 51 Project ‘The Benefits of Water’ Project ‘The Benefits of Water’ Goal: Show the social benefits of water management Saline case-study: Management & policy of the North Sea and the Duthc coast.. 1. Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall, trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence 2. Integral trade-off Sea-reserve Voordelta, trigger: compensation/restoration of the biodiversity North sea Done in 2001 Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD

52 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 52 Project ‘The Benefits of Water’  Goal: –Show the social benefits of water management  Saline case-study: –Management & policy of the North Sea and the Dutch coast.  Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD –Done in 2001  Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall –trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence

53 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 53 BastionDunesSlufter

54 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 54 Process in the Saline case-study 3 perceptions:Geld (money)  Economy Groen (green)  Ecology Gevoel (emotion)  Social Cultural 3 steps: Quantificaton of Effects Evaluation with help of indicators Trade-off within and between de 3 G’s 3 alternatives per case: Hondsbossche Bastion Hondsbossche Dunes Hondsbossche Slufter

55 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 55 Economic valuation (1) case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’ EffectValuation method Omzet landbouwVerdrongen productie Verandering productiviteit Marktprijzen Opbrengst RecreantenVerandering aantal recreanten Verandering in beleving Reiskostenbenadering Perceptie gewaarb. Veiligheid Verandering in belevingContigent Valuation Method Perceptie van biodiversiteitVerandering in belevingContigent Valuation Method Zoetwateropslag en – winning Verworven productieMarktprijzen OnroerendgoedwaardeVerandering huizenprijzen Verandering in aantal huizen Hedonische prijzen Marktwaarde Visserij opbrengstOnstaan kraamkamerProductiefunctie methode Economische bedrijvigheidVermeden overstromingsschadeRisico-analyse

56 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 56 Bastion (in miljoen guldens) Duinen (in miljoen guldens) Slufter (in miljoen guldens) Kosten Investering Onderhoud2145 Baten Landbouw9,610,30 Recreatie00,64,2 Perceptie van veiligheid18,813,40 Perceptie van biodiversiteit05,426,9 Zoetwateropslag en -winning0,10,60 Onroerend goed24,3121,4108,8 Visserij0022,5 Voorkomen schade135,2105,483,6 Netto Contante Waarde Kosten Baten ratio1,21,11,7 Noot: periode ,de jaarlijkse opbrengsten zijn verdisconteerd tegen een discontovoet van 4 procent Economic Valuation (2) case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’

57 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 57 Conclusions  Well-considered trade-off and decisions need integral information (such as geld, groen en gevoel);  Research and trade-off has to influence and inspire each other constantly;  ‘Play with knowledge’ in stead of presenting knowledge improves well-considered decision- making with a larger public support.

58 vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 58 Valuation and evaluation methods EnvironmentEconomy Social/Culture Evaluation Cost Effectiveness analysis (CEA) Social-Economic analysis (SEA) Extended cost- Benefit analysis Integrated Nature Efficiency analysis (NEA) Environmental and / or natural values Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) Financial and/or economic values Separate Local support analysis (DA) Social and/or cultural values Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) Graphic Evaluation Analysis (GEA)


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