4Capacity Responsibility RCI Projections Target total income, excluding income below the development threshold (USD 20/day)Responsibilitycumulative emissions since 1990 (excluding emissions from consumption below threshold)RCIResponsibility Capacity IndexProjectionsIEA World Energy Outlook (2007)Targetemission reduction pathways to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (peak 2013 (429 ppm), 80% below 1990 level at 2050)
9Copenhagen November 2009 Post Kyoto- National commitments Risk for SuccessPolitical compromisesNature not at the table
10IPCC- Group III Report, May 2007 Global GHG emissions must be reduced by 50-80% to year 2050to limit global warming to + 2 Ctoday’s 379 ppm must be leveled off at ppmassuming max point at the latest 2015Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% from 1970 to 2004by +24% since 1990with Business as Usual, additional % by 2030Total cost to stabilize GHG concentrationsless than 3% of global GNP year 2030= yearly global growth of 3.5% instead of 3.6%
13CO2 Emissions per Person India (ton per year)China 5Sweden 7GermanyUSA/Canada 20Global (can absorb max 1,5)
14Per capita CO2 emissions (in tonnes) All sources; other GHGs not includedChina’s level and rate of growth likely to be understatedIntegrated energy report of 11th 5year plan states that India wants to quadruple energy from coal over the next 25 yearsChina likely to double within the next 20 years
16Emissions – targets & commitments California: 25% (1990)London: 30% (1990)+30% EU & UK GovernmentNew York City: 30% (2007)Paris: 75% (2004)Stockholm: % 2050 (1990)Tokyo: 25% (2000)Rotterdam: 50% (1990)Göran Carstedt 2007
17European Parliament- dec 2008 Plan by 2020:20% reduction of GHG emissions (1990)20% increase in use of renewable energy20% improved energy efficiency+10% of transportation fuels= biofuels, electricity, hydrogenGHG reductions compared with fossil fuels35% -> 50% -> 60%(2011) (2013) (2017)Second generation biofuels = double credited2012: 130 g CO2/km2020: 95 g CO2/kmtoday: 160g CO2/km
18Sweden (1990-2006) GHG emissions down 8.7% Economic growth up 44%
19Sweden CO2 tax from 1990 ($ 120/ton CO2) Electricity certificates CO2 differentiated vehicle taxesTax exemtion for biofuels to 2012Tax exemptions for energy saving retro fittingPublic education
20Sweden The Oil Commission (2005)- Independant of oil at 2020 will succeed in heating of buildingsBiofuels (pellets)WasteCombined heat & powerEnergy efficiencyTransportation?2008: 35% of new cars sold- green cars(mostly ethanol flexifuel)Still small proportion of total fleetRetrofitting of used cars coming
21Denmark Very hard hit by the oilcrises 1973 What did they do? Too dependant on oilimportsToday self suffiscient in energyExports oil, gas, electricityMore people wiling to pay higher prices for clean energy, than in any other EU countryWhat did they do?Taxes on fuel and electricityDistrict heating system (waste & cogeneration)Building codesSubsidies to energy efficient appliancesSupporting Wind Farms (20% of electricity- Vestas)
22Denmark Energy consumption 1975-2005 +/- 0 (USA +40%) GDP 200% Denmark= kwh p.a. in electriciy per personUSA = kwh
23Price of electricity in Denmark compared to: US %France +24%UK %
26A leadership challenge… - Technological challengewhat technologies can help us?- Political challengewhat society do we want to live in?- Organisational challengehow can we make it happen?
27- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008 ”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they aren’t stupid and they are not corrupt.They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized for yesterday’s.”- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008
28What if…our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we are now meeting?GC 2001
29What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living communities?
30What if… change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about reconceiving?GC 2001
31What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind being changed?
32What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ? GC 2001
33What if you can only earn people's trust by being trustworthy? (GC 1997)
34LearningWhy do we confront learning opportunities with fear rather than wonder?Why do we derive our self-esteem from knowing as opposed to learning?Why do we criticise before we even understand?Why do we create controlling bureaucracies when we attempt to form visionary enterprises?Why do we persist in fragmentation and piecemeal analysis as the world becomes more and more interconnected?Peter Senge