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How on Earth can we Live Together Göran Carstedt Stonehouse Summit, Jan 19 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "How on Earth can we Live Together Göran Carstedt Stonehouse Summit, Jan 19 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 How on Earth can we Live Together Göran Carstedt Stonehouse Summit, Jan

2 Our Unsustainable Journey Global warming Water scarcity Biodiversity Poverty …


4 Capacity – total income, excluding income below the development threshold (USD 20/day) Responsibility – cumulative emissions since 1990 (excluding emissions from consumption below threshold) RCI – Responsibility Capacity Index Projections – IEA World Energy Outlook (2007) Target – emission reduction pathways to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (peak 2013 (429 ppm), 80% below 1990 level at 2050)



7 Canada & Sweden

8 Göran Carstedt 2007

9 Copenhagen November 2009 Post Kyoto- National commitments Risk for Success – Political compromises – Nature not at the table

10 IPCC- Group III Report, May 2007 Global GHG emissions must be reduced by 50-80% to year 2050 – to limit global warming to + 2 C – todays 379 ppm must be leveled off at ppm – assuming max point at the latest 2015 Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% from 1970 to 2004 – by +24% since 1990 – with Business as Usual, additional % by 2030 Total cost to stabilize GHG concentrations – less than 3% of global GNP year 2030 = yearly global growth of 3.5% instead of 3.6%

11 GHG Emissions ChangeTotal Europe %4.2 bln tCO2eq Japan+6.5%1.3 bln USA+16%7.1 bln Canada+ 25%0,7 bln Australia+25%0.5 bln Source: UNFCCC (2006) Kyoto objective -8% : Göran Carstedt 2007

12 Germany -18.7% UK-15.7% Sweden -7.4% Italy +12.1% Ireland +25.4% Spain+52.3% GHG Emissions Europe: Source: EEA (2007) Göran Carstedt 2007

13 CO2 Emissions per Person India1 (ton per year) China5 Sweden 7 Germany 10 USA/Canada20 Global4 (can absorb max 1,5)

14 Per capita CO 2 emissions (in tonnes)

15 Emissions – targets & commitments EU27: 20%2020 (1990) Germany:36%2020 (1990) UK:26%2020 (1990)(into law) France:25%2020 (1990) Sweden:30% 2020 (1990) Japan6%2012 (1990) China 20%2012 (2007) (efficiency) Göran Carstedt 2007

16 California: 25% 2020 (1990) London: 30% 2025 (1990) +30% EU & UK Government New York City: 30% 2030 (2007) Paris:75%2050 (2004) Stockholm:60-80%2050 (1990) Tokyo:25%2020 (2000) Rotterdam:50%2025 (1990) Emissions – targets & commitments Göran Carstedt 2007

17 European Parliament- dec Plan by 2020: 20% reduction of GHG emissions (1990) 20% increase in use of renewable energy 20% improved energy efficiency +10% of transportation fuels= biofuels, electricity, hydrogen – GHG reductions compared with fossil fuels 35% ->50% ->60% (2011)(2013)(2017) – Second generation biofuels = double credited – 2012: 130 g CO2/km – 2020: 95 g CO2/km – today: 160g CO2/km

18 Sweden ( ) GHG emissions down 8.7% Economic growth up 44%

19 Sweden CO2 tax from 1990 ($ 120/ton CO2) Electricity certificates CO2 differentiated vehicle taxes Tax exemtion for biofuels to 2012 Tax exemptions for energy saving retro fitting Public education

20 Sweden The Oil Commission (2005)- Independant of oil at 2020 – will succeed in heating of buildings Biofuels (pellets) Waste Combined heat & power Energy efficiency – Transportation? 2008: 35% of new cars sold- green cars (mostly ethanol flexifuel) Still small proportion of total fleet Retrofitting of used cars coming

21 Denmark Very hard hit by the oilcrises 1973 – Too dependant on oilimports – Today self suffiscient in energy – Exports oil, gas, electricity – More people wiling to pay higher prices for clean energy, than in any other EU country What did they do? – Taxes on fuel and electricity – District heating system (waste & cogeneration) – Building codes – Subsidies to energy efficient appliances – Supporting Wind Farms (20% of electricity- Vestas)

22 Denmark Energy consumption /- 0 (USA +40%) GDP 200% Denmark= kwh p.a. in electriciy per person USA = kwh

23 Price of electricity in Denmark compared to: US+43% France+24% UK+19%

24 Obama Yes, We can!

25 Transformational Change?

26 A leadership challenge… - Technological challenge what technologies can help us? - Political challenge what society do we want to live in? - Organisational challenge how can we make it happen?

27 I was struck by the countries that wont meet their Kyoto targets… They arent lazy, they arent stupid and they are not corrupt. Theyre well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrows energy- its organized for yesterdays. - Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008

28 What if… our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we are now meeting? GC 2001

29 What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living communities? GC 2001

30 What if… change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about reconceiving? GC 2001

31 GC 1997 What if people dont mind change, but they do mind being changed?

32 What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ? GC 2001

33 What if you can only earn people's trust by being trustworthy? (GC 1997)

34 Learning Why do we confront learning opportunities with fear rather than wonder? Why do we derive our self-esteem from knowing as opposed to learning? Why do we criticise before we even understand? Why do we create controlling bureaucracies when we attempt to form visionary enterprises? Why do we persist in fragmentation and piecemeal analysis as the world becomes more and more interconnected? Peter Senge

35 Optimistic or Pessimistic?

36 The Industrial Revolution - transformed our society no master plan no starting/end point not led by anyone not an initiative of any political, governmental or religious body GC 2000

37 Industrial Revolutionen The product of millions of small beginnings A process of making things better Outpouring of human creativity Changing Perceptions- among the many people GC 2000


39 There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come. - Victor Hugo

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