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Over-reliance on old methods Afraid to make mistakes Poor talent evaluation Few self-checks One bad contract kills a team.

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Presentation on theme: "Over-reliance on old methods Afraid to make mistakes Poor talent evaluation Few self-checks One bad contract kills a team."— Presentation transcript:



3 Over-reliance on old methods Afraid to make mistakes Poor talent evaluation Few self-checks One bad contract kills a team


5 Anything that prevents a team from reaching its potential Overpaying for talent Injuries Age Unrealistic expectations SELF-INFLICTED

6 Sensitivity to Operations Preoccupation with Failure Deference to Expertise Commitment to Resilience Reluctance to Simplify Interpretations

7 Everyone understands the big picture Knowledge sharing throughout organization System-wide knowledge of operations

8 MLB teams have no top-down identity Teams are thrown together No attention to cohesiveness or culture Moves are made based on whims Reactions instead of proaction

9 All teams should have a core identity Young players Forward-looking statistics Teams should communicate its policy with players All members of organization should have the ability to offer suggestions Players Front office staff Stadium concierge staff

10 Failure is always possible Small mistakes may become catastrophic Active evaluation of operations Identify errors before they happen

11 Teams routinely shoot themselves in the foot Improper evaluation of talent Bad contracts Ill-conceived signings Poor talent evaluation Teams think too much about what could be Not enough about what actually is The mistakes of today have tremendous future consequences Instant gratification Contract year syndrome

12 WAR: Wins Above Replacement Average Starter: +2 WAR

13 Make sure all talent fits the bill Dont force square pegs into round holes Only sign affordable talent No aging/injury prone players Consider intangibles Media pressure Ability to handle success/money

14 Decisions should be made by people with the most relevant expertise Those with the most knowledge make the decisions regardless of rank Blindly following the hierarchy can lead to mistakes

15 Baseball talent evaluation favors the wrong stats Wins RBI Batting Average Teams are unwilling to embrace new methodologies Teams act before they think

16 Bring in stats experts from outside of baseball New perspective Incorporate new stats New methods + common sense Give the numbers guys a voice

17 On-Base Percentage (OBP) Patience and discipline Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) Advanced look at fielding Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) Quantifies luck for pitchers Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Measures a players true value

18 PositionOldNew HittingBatting AverageOn-Base Percentage DefenseErrorsUltimate Zone Rating PitchingEarned Run Average WHIP ((Walks + Hits)/Innings Pitched) Overall Value NoneWins Above Replacement

19 All errors cannot be prevented Minimize the escalating consequences of unpreventable errors Anticipate errors Dont be caught by surprise

20 Most people believe defects cannot be predicted Teams quickly stray from plans when adversity strikes Rebuilding efforts Financial responsibility Teams listen too much to outside sources Media Fans

21 Record: 69-93 Last in AL East Worst season in franchise history Opening Day Payroll: $173,186,617 Traded $73 million of salary during season 2013 Outlook I know that we'll have a very strong payroll, a large payroll… I'm confident in saying that we'll be amongst the larger payrolls in the game. –Ben Cherington, Red Sox GM

22 Tunnel vision Stick to the budget Keep statistical analysis above all else Dont listen to critics Communicate plan with fans Treat fans like shareholders Convince them to buy into your plan

23 Dont accept simple answers to complex questions Drill down to find the real heart of the matter

24 Teams often act impulsively Gut feelings Focus on getting a player instead of the player Whack-A-Mole mentality

25 Bring in only necessary players No second choices Focus on the whole team Not just one position Look for new ways to interpret data Advanced stats

26 Revenue Sharing Every team gets a piece of a leaguewide pool Teams dont have to work to make money Miami Marlins TV Money Teams receive tens of millions each year Payments have increased exponentially

27 2010 Declared bankruptcy Reached World Series Payroll: $55,250,544 Payroll Rank: 26 out of 30 Signed 20-year TV deal Pays $80 million annually 2012 Lost Wild Card play-in game Payroll: $120,510,974 Payroll Rank: 6 out of 30

28 Declared bankruptcy in 2011 Taken over by Major League Baseball Purchased for $2 billion in 2012 Previous record purchase: $700 million (Chicago Cubs, 2009) Payroll Start of 2012 season: $95,143,575 Current payroll: $198,314,286 TV Deal Negotiating with Fox Sports Rumored Deal: 25 years, $6 billion total

29 High reliability is the way of the future Yankees: 1 World Series since 2000 Rays: 3 playoff appearances in last 5 years Patience and smarts trump money Embracing HRO now is ideal TV money has potential to ruin baseball Teams must be smart with added funds


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