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Forecast for 21 TV Sales Yasmine Yahia Mohamed Tantawi Ossama Kamal Yasser Abd-Elbary Under Supervision: Prof. Sayed Elkholy QA– ESLSCA_29B 25 October.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecast for 21 TV Sales Yasmine Yahia Mohamed Tantawi Ossama Kamal Yasser Abd-Elbary Under Supervision: Prof. Sayed Elkholy QA– ESLSCA_29B 25 October."— Presentation transcript:

1 Forecast for 21 TV Sales Yasmine Yahia Mohamed Tantawi Ossama Kamal Yasser Abd-Elbary Under Supervision: Prof. Sayed Elkholy QA– ESLSCA_29B 25 October 2009

2 Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Smoothing Forecast Seasonal Index Comparison Contents

3 Simple Moving Average MonthActual Sales (2008) Actual Sales (2009) SMA (3months) SMA (4months) SMA (6months) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov3245 Dec4760

4 Weighted Moving Average MonthActual Sales (2008) Actual Sales (2009) W i (0.74) AiWiAiWi Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5 Smoothing Forecast SF t+1 =SF t + α(A t -SF t ) MonthActual Sales (2008) Actual Sales (2009) SF ( α =0.2) SF ( α =0.5) SF ( α =0.85) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov3245 Dec4760

6 Seasonal Index Month X Actual Sales (2008) Y X2X2 Y2Y2 XY Jan ,810,0004,100 Feb ,049,0255,310 Mar ,374,8419,663 Apr ,410,0008,400 May ,062,50011,250 Jun ,922,50018,900 Jul ,202,40923,429 Aug ,702,50036,400 Sep ,336,68930,303 Oct ,477,45621,160 Nov ,530,02535,695 Dec ,657,60057, , ,535,545261,730

7 Seasonal Index … Continue Y = a + bX b = (n ΣXY – ΣX ΣY)/(n ΣX 2 –(ΣX) 2 ) a = (ΣY – b ΣX) / n ΣX = 78; ΣY = 38,861; ΣX2 = 650; ΣY2 = 134,535,545; ΣXY=261,730 b = 63.87; a = 2,823.3 Y = X

8 Month X Actual Sales (2008) Y YY\Y Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , Dec , Seasonal Index … Continue

9 Month X Sales Forecast (2009) Y Y/Y From 2008 Sales Forecast Oct , Nov , Dec , By applying Y for remaining months and use Y/Y from 2008 data for its equivalent months, we got the below table: Note: we couldnt have ASI, as we have only year data Seasonal Index … Continue

10 Seasonal Index … another calculations Month X Y (2008 & 2009) X2X2 Y2Y2 XYYY/Y Jan ,810,0004, Feb ,049,0255, Mar ,374,8419, Apr ,410,0008, May ,062,50011, Jun ,922,50018, Jul ,202,40923, Aug ,702,50036, Sep ,336,68930, Oct ,477,45621, Nov ,530,02535, Dec ,657,60057, Jan ,369,79655, Feb ,838,48441, Mar ,608,72155, Apr ,840,00035, May ,051,60041, Jun ,532,81661, Jul ,348,94471, Aug ,500,944115, Sep ,31114,976,90081, ,316260,633,750821,625

11 Month X Sales Forecast (2009) Y Y/Y From 2008 Sales Forecast Oct , Nov Dec Y = a + bX b = 48.25; a = 2, Y = X By applying Y for remaining months and use Y/Y from 2008 data for its equivalent months, we got the below table: Note: we couldnt have ASI, as we have only year data Seasonal Index … another calculations

12 Comparison OctNovDec SMA (3months) 4482 SMA (4months) 4211 SMA (6months) 3584 WMA3837 SF ( α =0.2) 3916 SF ( α =0.5) 4236 SF ( α =0.85) 4111 Seasonal Index (1 st Calculations) Seasonal Index (2 nd Calculations)


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