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1 The Eurozone Crisis: Causes and Solutions Klaas Knot President, De Nederlandsche Bank Asia Society, Hongkong 15 October 2012
2 The eurozone and the global economy
3 European debt crisis
4 Some convergence prior to the crisis... Cumulative growth differentials with Germany
5 … but with borrowed money … Average annual growth rate of credit to private sector: 2000-2011
6 … and accompanied by inflation… Cumulative differentials compared to EMU total : 2000-2007
7 …reflecting wage developments
8 Current account balance percent of GDP
9 Governments went back to old habits Start EMU Budget deficits (% Gdp) Improvements in the run-up to EMU but relapse after admission
10 “ On/off ” market discipline
11 A stable design of EMU Strengthening growth potential and competitiveness Politically independent enforcement of the fiscal rules, guarding the debt ceiling of 60% European supervision, resolution and DGS Eurobonds as the capstone of EMU?
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