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Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Københavns Universitet, 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Københavns Universitet, 2002."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Københavns Universitet, 2002

2 Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..) Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S,…..) SEUs in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2) Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, PanAm, ECS,….) More recent satellite failures: Telestar 401 –TV links etc.. Galaxy IV –silenced 80% of pagers in North America More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 million Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.

3 Damage to transformers Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey Price: 10 mill USD Repair can take up to 1 year. In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 kV power distribution lines Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity

4 New Particle formation: Observations and Theory Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H 2 SO 4 +H 2 O) nucleation theory The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H 2 SO 4 ] is much weaker (~ [H 2 SO 4 ] 2 )than predicted by classical binary (H 2 SO 4 +H 2 O) nucleation theory (~ [H 2 SO 4 ] 10 ) Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H 2 SO 4 and its associated H 2 O and NH 3

5 r G r*r* rcrc riri Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere? : Time to grow from r c to r * sek Ion-pair/cc/sek ~ 200 sek for [H2SO4] = pr cc

6 enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation Vohra et al., Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984) N 2 :O 2 = 4:1 SO 2 = 300 ppb C 2 H 4 = 100 ppb O 3 = 160 ppb Artificial air Natural level of ionisation Experimental evidence of

7 Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001

8 CLOUD experimenet ved CERN

9 Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe

10 Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000 Correlation only found in low clouds IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays

11 Little Ice age (~ ) Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina

12 Ice-ages and spiral arms One revolution take about 240 Mill years Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms

13 Ice-ages and spiral arms Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002


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