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Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Joel Dahné Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute In this.

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Presentation on theme: "Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Joel Dahné Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute In this."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Joel Dahné Swedish meteorological and hydrological institute In this presentaion Goals (deliverables) Indata HYPE model Calibration/Evaluation Simulation results for Future climate and reduction scenario

2 Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Goals (deliverables) -Input to oceanographic models Predicted discharge at catchment outlets 1960-2100 Net load of N and P to the sea, 1960-2100

3 Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Indata for a pan-Baltic model • Topography: HYDRO1k • Landuse and Soils: ECOCLIMAP European Soils Database • Forcing Data (meteorology): ERAMESAN (Patched) ECHAM5(KNMI) + RCA3(SMHI) •Agricultural Practices Data: CAPRIS-data(agg-eco-model) •Atmospheric Deposition Data: MATCH model (SMHI) •Point sources and wwt EEA, WHO, EUROSTAT •Observed water quality (N & P): EEA •Observed Runoff GRDC + BALTEX Runoff Topography Meteorology Landuse Quality EEA

4 Program for raster indata preparation WHIST 5128 sub catchments Median size = 325km 2

5 HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model Soil classes (7) + Landuse classes (13) = SLC classes (55) Total: 78 000 Hydrological response units in 5128 sub catchments

6 Sources for N&P: •Fertilization •Atm. Dep. •Residues •Mineralization Sinks for N&P: •Denitrification •Crop up-take •Adsorption Fertilizer, residuals -- Regional groundwater flow Macropore flow Discharge Evapotranspiration Surface flow Precipitation Snow melt Crop uptake N&P storage Atmospheric deposition Denitrification N&P storage Processes in hydrological response units

7 Mellanblå fält till höger: Plats för bild – foto, diagram, film, andra illustrationer Calibration/Evaluation Calibration of Water model against observed daily streamflow. Calibration of Water quality model against observed seasonal and annual concentration in rivers Most parameters dependent on soil or landuse. => not calibrated to regions! Proper evaluation yet to be done RIVERAREA km 2 1VISTULA193935 2ODER111242 3NEMANUS97946 4DAUGUVA90001 5NARVA58216 6KEMIJOKI55647 7GÖTAÄLV51274 8GLAMA41432 9MUONIO39206 10DALÄLVEN29109 11KOKEMAENKOJI27303 12UMEÄLV26394 13INDALSÄLVEN25810 14LJUSNAN20375 15NORRSTRÖM19257 16MOTALA STRÖM15026 17LIELUPE14090 18BÖLEBYN13191 19LIVAJOKI12588 20SKELLEFTEÄLV12294 21VENTA8477 22PÄRNU5967 23KYRONJOKI4829 24SIIKAJOKI4669 25LAPUANJOKI4555 26LJUNGBYÅN4299 27EMÅN4178 28WARNOW3971 29PEENE3809 30GIDEÄLVEN3736 31HELGE Å3642 32INA3639 33ÄTRAN3033 34KASARI2639 35LESTIJOKI2638 36AURAJOKI1995 37RICKLEÅN1851 38SLUPIA1673 39UECKER1574 40EURAJOKI1460 41TUDE A579 42PARSETA443

8 Some prelimary results

9 River: Oder

10 River: Kokemäenjoki

11 Relative error [%] Compared to 41 rivers Total Phosphorus Yearly load to sea

12 Relative error [%] Compared to 41 rivers Total Nitrogen Yearly load to sea

13 1971-2000 2071-2100 Load as today Reduced load Clim. scen •Climate scenario: GCM: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCM: RCA3(SMHI) •Reduction scenario: Loads from Point sources and waste water reduced by 20% Referens Load

14 Going from observation based forcing data to Regional Climate Models

15 1971-2000 2071-2100 Load as today Reduced load •Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI) •Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20% RCM Referens Load

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19 1971-2000 2071-2100 Load as today Reduced load RCM •Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI) •Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20% Referens Load

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22 1971-2000 2071-2100 Load as today Reduced load •Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI) •Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20% RCM Referens Load

23 Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment

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25 Preliminary conclusions •Climate run: -Increase in phosphorus load due to more intense rainfall -Decrease in nitrogen load due to deacreased flow => increase in retention time. Combined effects: Nutrient loads will decrease

26 Future work •Validation of results => Further calibration and model improvement. •Validate that the model can reproduce changes in external loads of nutrients •Reduction scenarios from HELCOM-BSAP •GCM/RCM runs •…

27 Thank you for your attention SMHI - Hydrological research department


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